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Season 17 Finalist Placements Predicitions (Pre-Performances)


MatthewPalermo
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Final 4 Placement Predictions - S17 edition  

41 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win?

    • Katie Kadan
      22
    • Jake Hoot
      10
    • Ricky Duran
      5
    • Rose Short
      4
  2. 2. Who will be the runner-up?

    • Katie Kadan
      11
    • Jake Hoot
      23
    • Ricky Duran
      5
    • Rose Short
      2
  3. 3. Who will finish in third?

    • Katie Kadan
      5
    • Jake Hoot
      4
    • Ricky Duran
      25
    • Rose Short
      7


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4th - Ricky

3rd - Rose :ph34rwave:

2nd - Jake

1st - Katie

 

Katie and John confirmed a ballad next week, so its gonna be hard to beat her tbh.

 

If she can get a PV with her Top 8 song... I think she has this actually.

Good point.

 

Plus it seems a bit obvious that Katie's gonna close the finale, haha. That'll help her get the push she needs.

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What I think will happen/me being pessimistic and not be overconfident in thinking Katie will win

 

1. Jake

2. Katie

3. Ricky

4. Rose

 

What I want to happen:

 

Jake, Ricky, and Katie all get sick so they put on robes and become choir members and/or back-up dancers for Rose's concert next week.

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What I think will happen/me being pessimistic and not be overconfident in thinking Katie will win

 

1. Jake

2. Katie

3. Ricky

4. Rose

 

What I want to happen:

 

Jake, Ricky, and Katie all get sick so they put on robes and become choir members and/or back-up dancers for Rose's concert next week.

 

Yessssssssssss :sorcerer:

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I'm the only one who makes this prediction probably --

 

Winner: Ricky

Runner-up: Jake

3rd Place: Rose

You're one of the SM stats pros, and that goes against all the stats. Since this is a prediction and not a preference order, and the only country contestant isn't on TB, I'm interested to know how you came to that conclusion. Also, Katie got the PV, and Rose didn't.

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You're one of the SM stats pros, and that goes against all the stats. Since this is a prediction and not a preference order, and the only country contestant isn't on TB, I'm interested to know how you came to that conclusion. Also, Katie got the PV, and Rose didn't.

 

Here's their SM aggregates score (from 14 different SM metrics):

 

Ricky = 16 [12 Top 3 scores, 2 middle 3 score]

Jake = 19 [10 Top 3 scores, 3 middle 3 scores, 1 bottom 2 score]

Katie = 19 [9 Top 3 scores, 5 middle 3 scores]

 

Rose = 21 [9 Top 3 scores, 3 middle 3 scores, 2 bottom 2 scores]

 

 

I gave the contestant 1 point if in the Top 3 of a particular social media factor, 2 points for middle 3, and 3 points for bottom 2. Notice that both Katie and Rose appeared in the Top 3 9 times, but Rose was in bottom 2 2x (IG and FB views) that's why she's slightly behind Katie in scores.

 

Katie has at least 2x the IG and FB followers of the other finalists (except Katie and Hoot has about the same FB). That could skew her SM "dominance" but during the semifinals, she trailed Ricky and Jake in the number of times in the Top 3. If she has a sub-par or polarizing performance and Rose gives the best performances in favorable performance slots, Rose may have a chance to get the casual votes and finish at least 3rd.

Edited by season1
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Here's their SM aggregates score (from 14 different SM metrics):

 

Ricky = 16 [12 Top 3 scores, 2 middle 3 score]

Jake = 19 [10 Top 3 scores, 3 middle 3 scores, 1 bottom 2 score]

Katie = 19 [9 Top 3 scores, 5 middle 3 scores]

 

Rose = 21 [9 Top 3 scores, 3 middle 3 scores, 2 bottom 2 scores]

I gave the contestant 1 point if in the Top 3 of a particular social media factor, 2 points for middle 3, and 3 points for bottom 2. Notice that both Katie and Rose appeared in the Top 3 9 times, but Rose was in bottom 2 2x (IG and FB views) that's why she's slightly behind Katie in scores.

 

Katie has at least 2x the IG and FB followers of the other finalists (except Katie and Hoot has about the same FB). That could skew her SM "dominance" but during the semifinals, she trailed Ricky and Jake in the number of times in the Top 3. If she has a sub-par or polarizing performance and Rose gives the best performances in favorable performance slots, Rose may have a chance to get the casual votes and finish at least 3rd.

 

Couple things....

 

-the reason Katie has more social media followers is probably because she’s the most popular contestant.

 

-If Katie’s level of dominance on FB, YT, Twitter and IG was properly weighted into those statistics, I think you’d get a different result. I realize that would be more work than it’s worth.

 

-Online polls are fun, but are subject to group-think bias much more than the other platforms. We don’t even know the sample sizes. It might not be much more than what we see with our own polls. They also get spammed and hacked regularly. I don’t take them seriously.

 

-if you’re right, I will bow down. :haha:

Edited by TeamAudra
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Couple things....

 

-the reason Katie has more social media followers is probably because she’s the most popular contestant.

 

-If Katie’s level of dominance on FB, YT, Twitter and IG was properly weighted into those statistics, I think you’d get a different result. I realize that would be more work than it’s worth.

 

-Online polls are fun, but are subject to group-think bias much more than the other platforms. We don’t even know the sample sizes. It might not be much more than what we see with our own polls. I don’t take them seriously.

 

-if you’re right, I will bow down. :haha:

 

FWIW there are 3 FB metrics, 3 YT metrics, and 2 Twitter metrics. All that plus IG accounts for 9 out of 14 metrics.

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FWIW there are 3 FB metrics, 3 YT metrics, and 2 Twitter metrics. All that plus IG accounts for 9 out of 14 metrics.

 

Right. What I meant is if Katie has twice as many view or likes as the next highest contestant, it’s not factored in using that method, to use a hypothetical example. I did something similar for a couple seasons, and I didn’t account for that either, but we didn’t have one contestant dominating some of these platforms to this degree.

 

I think Katie is leading the voting, but Jake might be able to beat her with all of his bonuses. The problem is we don’t have any clue what overall vote totals look like.

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My prediction :

1. Katie

2. Ricky

3. Jake

4. Rose

 

Since we don't know how significant the streaming votes when it's compared to the amount of the total votes by other methods, it could be that the streaming bonus actually don't mean that much :rolleyes:

or maybe it's just me being in denial of Hoot winning :haha:

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WHAT I WANT:

1. Rose Short

2. Ricky Duran

3. Jake Hoot or Katie Kadan, don't care

 

WHAT WILL HAPPEN:

1. Katie Kadan

2. Jake Hoot

3. Ricky Duran

4. Rose Short

 

So… pretty much, the exact opposite of what I want. It's all good, though. I don't dislike any of the singers left, I'm going to have fun with this finale. So may the singer with biggest, most mobilized, and most loyal fanbase win, because that's ALL it's going to come down to, really.

 

No way poor Rose is going to get anything but 4th at this juncture, and there's nothing she can do about it; she could literally transform into Aretha Franklin in front of everyone, and they'd still not vote for her. But bless her heart, she tried. :haha:

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Since we don't know how significant the streaming votes when it's compared to the amount of the total votes by other methods, it could be that the streaming bonus actually don't mean that much :rolleyes:

or maybe it's just me being in denial of Hoot winning :haha:

exactly, hoot could have 100 people voting AND streaming x10+ a day to get the bonus and the x10 votes cap per streamer, but katie could have 1000 people alone who just vote and not stream

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