S21 Social Media Stats

[Gmm99]

I'm kind of shocked that the ballad for GNT is doing a bit worse than their upbeat. Paris doing better than I expected... (I'm talking about FB)

Edited December 14, 2021 by Gmm99

[TeamAudra]

The difference in Youtube vs. Facebook stats and comments for Hailey is just unbelievable. It’s totally night and day, even on Deja Vu. Same thing on Instagram and Twitter. The problem with Facebook is those people do not know these songs, and probably don’t like them either. That isn’t going to be her target audience anyway, so why even try to appease them? The older voting audience, and the fact that the contestants have to pick songs they like is a big reason it’s so difficult for contestants to transition to the actual real life music industry. That’s why I said very early on, Hailey should just sing whatever she wants, and whatever happens, happens. I knew she was likely to stay super current. 

[QueenMae16]

9 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

The difference in Youtube vs. Facebook stats and comments for Hailey is just unbelievable. It’s totally night and day, even on Deja Vu. Same thing on Instagram and Twitter. The problem with Facebook is those people do not know these songs, and probably don’t like them either. That isn’t going to be her target audience anyway, so why even try to appease them? The older voting audience, and the fact that the contestants have to pick songs they like is a big reason it’s so difficult for contestants to transition to the actual real life music industry. That’s why I said very early on, Hailey should just sing whatever she wants, and whatever happens, happens. I knew she was likely to stay super current. 

In conclusion. The Voice is not a good platform if you want to try to make it mainstream, its only an entertainment show for southern housewives and grandmas. They won't care after you are eliminated or win the show, better off just not auditioning lol.

[MatthewPalermo]

Facebook reactions just before the show ends on the West Coast:
Hailey (uptempo) - 2.9K

Hailey (ballad) - 2K

Hailey (total) - 4.9K

 

Paris (uptempo) - 1.7K

Paris (ballad) - 4.2K
Paris (total) - 5.9K

 

GNT (uptempo) - 8.5K

GNT (ballad) - 4.1K
GNT (total) - 12.6K

 

Jershika (uptempo) - 1.8K

Jershika (ballad) - 2K
Jershika (total) - 3.8K

Wendy (uptempo) - 4.6K

Wendy (ballad) - 4.8K
Wendy (total) - 9.4K

Facebook predicts GNT>Wendy>Paris>Hailey>Jershika and that's exactly how I think the results will go. The winner is going to be GNT most likely, Wendy is the only one who can stop them.

[Gustavo527]

3 minutes ago, QueenMae16 said:

In conclusion. The Voice is not a good platform if you want to try to make it mainstream, its only an entertainment show for southern housewives and grandmas. They won't care after you are eliminated or win the show, better off just not auditioning lol.

Bias aside, this is true 

[TeamAudra]

5 minutes ago, QueenMae16 said:

In conclusion. The Voice is not a good platform if you want to try to make it mainstream, its only an entertainment show for southern housewives and grandmas. They won't care after you are eliminated or win the show, better off just not auditioning lol.

I agree. The show has become a laughing stock for their ineptitude at producing successful mainstream artists. There are many reasons for this, but I think the audience and their musical preferences are right at the top of the list. Don’t get me wrong, I like some of the older stuff too, but that isn’t going to do anything for them down the road. 

[kurumi]

37 minutes ago, QueenMae16 said:

In conclusion. The Voice is not a good platform if you want to try to make it mainstream, its only an entertainment show for southern housewives and grandmas. They won't care after you are eliminated or win the show, better off just not auditioning lol.

Applies to all reality singing competition nowadays. Well, Americal Idol produced Gabby Barrett. However, the succeeding contestants really didn't make a career out of the competition. Gabby Barrett wasn't also a huge global star like that of Kelly, One Direction, or Carrie Underwood. If you want to make it big, you really have to do it yourself, produce your own music or find a good manager

[CaptainOggy6320]

Honestly, if you want to get any success in the music industry nowadays as a new artist, TikTok is your friend.

 

Even then, it's all about luck. Your fate is essentially depending on teenagers liking a particular lyric and use it in their videos.

[RTV]

Google Trends

past day - Web Searches

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 1-d&geo=US&q=Girl Named Tom,Wendy Moten,Hailey Mia,Paris Winningham,Jershika Maple

past day - YouTube Searches

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 1-d&geo=US&gprop=youtube&q=Girl Named Tom,Wendy Moten,Hailey Mia,Paris Winningham,Jershika Maple

past 7 days - Web Searches

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 7-d&geo=US&q=Girl Named Tom,Wendy Moten,Hailey Mia,Paris Winningham,Jershika Maple

past 7 days - YouTube Searches

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now 7-d&geo=US&gprop=youtube&q=Girl Named Tom,Wendy Moten,Hailey Mia,Paris Winningham,Jershika Maple

past 30 days - Web Searches

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 1-m&geo=US&q=Girl Named Tom,Wendy Moten,Hailey Mia,Paris Winningham,Jershika Maple

past 30 days - YouTube Searches

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 1-m&geo=US&gprop=youtube&q=Girl Named Tom,Wendy Moten,Hailey Mia,Paris Winningham,Jershika Maple

past 90 days - Web Searches

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 3-m&geo=US&q=Girl Named Tom,Wendy Moten,Hailey Mia,Paris Winningham,Jershika Maple

past 90 days - YouTube Searches

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 3-m&geo=US&gprop=youtube&q=Girl Named Tom,Wendy Moten,Hailey Mia,Paris Winningham,Jershika Maple

 

 

 

[season1]

This post is for those who like numbers

 

Back in S20 Finale, I logged and averaged the different social media metrics at around end of voting, and compared them to actual results. Here are the final stats:

 

 

Notes:

1. Cam would win according to all ranking.

2. YT, Twitter and IG showed Victor 2nd and Rachel 3rd.

3. FB didn't like Rachel and she's 5th there. (many IDF posters predicted her to finish LAST partly due to her FB numbers)

4. Taking just the average of all data had Kenzie at 4th and Jordan 5th.

5. Taking the average of all Likes-to-Views Ratio (yellow shaded data) somewhat predicted the actual results.

 

So I decided to recycle this spreadsheet for S21 and added iTunes and GT data. Here are the data after the West Coast broadcast:

 

 

Notes:

1. GNT wins according to 5 summary rankings.

2. Hailey's lead on YT, IG and TW put her at 2nd based on overall average (gray shade) and Wendy 3rd.

3. Taking the average of the 3 Likes to Views ratios (the predictive average in S20, yellow shade), has Wendy at 2nd and Hailey at 3rd.

4. FB, iTunes and GT have GNT 1st and Wendy 2nd.

5. Looking at the various data, it seems the Top 3 in order would be GNT, Wendy and Hailey while 4/5 is a toss up.

 

I may update the data before voting closes.

Edited December 14, 2021 by season1

[season1]

3 hours ago, season1 said:

This post is for those who like numbers

 

Back in S20 Finale, I logged and averaged the different social media metrics at around end of voting, and compared them to actual results. Here are the final stats:

 

 

Notes:

1. Cam would win according to all ranking.

2. YT, Twitter and IG showed Victor 2nd and Rachel 3rd.

3. FB didn't like Rachel and she's 5th there. (many IDF posters predicted her to finish LAST partly due to her FB numbers)

4. Taking just the average of all data had Kenzie at 4th and Jordan 5th.

5. Taking the average of all Likes-to-Views Ratio (yellow shaded data) somewhat predicted the actual results.

 

So I decided to recycle this spreadsheet for S21 and added iTunes and GT data. Here are the data after the West Coast broadcast:

 

 

Notes:

1. GNT wins according to 5 summary rankings.

2. Hailey's lead on YT, IG and TW put her at 2nd based on overall average (gray shade) and Wendy 3rd.

3. Taking the average of the 3 Likes to Views ratios (the predictive average in S20, yellow shade), has Wendy at 2nd and Hailey at 3rd.

4. FB, iTunes and GT have GNT 1st and Wendy 2nd.

5. Looking at the various data, it seems the Top 3 in order would be GNT, Wendy and Hailey while 4/5 is a toss up.

 

I may update the data before voting closes.

 

UPDATED DATA (after 0600 hours):

 

 

NOTES:

Not much changed in ranking except the average rank values for overall average tightened up among the Top 3 and they're almost tied. This was due to swap in rank between GNT and Wendy on FB Likes and Twitter Likes (Wendy is now ahead of GNT).

 

1. GNT is still winning according to the 5 summaries/averages.

2. Wendy is 2nd in 4 out of 5 ranking summaries. Hailey is slightly ahead of Wendy for 2nd on the overall average, due to Hailey's leads in YT, IG and TW.

3. According to the ranking summaries, Jershika's ceiling is 4th and Paris' ceiling is 3rd.

Edited December 14, 2021 by season1

[wildestinvegas]

5 hours ago, kurumi said:

Applies to all reality singing competition nowadays. Well, Americal Idol produced Gabby Barrett. However, the succeeding contestants really didn't make a career out of the competition. Gabby Barrett wasn't also a huge global star like that of Kelly, One Direction, or Carrie Underwood. If you want to make it big, you really have to do it yourself, produce your own music or find a good manager

I disagree tbh. With idol at least, a big part of the audience are young people so they react much better to current stuff than The Voice's audience or at least the people who react better to it are a decent part of the audience to the point where it doesn't feel worthless to try to go that route. That's why every contestant who makes lives there usually ends with +100k followers and the frontrunners can even cross 300/400k, etc.

[Dai]

8 minutes ago, wildestinvegas said:

I disagree tbh. With idol at least, a big part of the audience are young people so they react much better to current stuff than The Voice's audience or at least the people who react better to it are a decent part of the audience to the point where it doesn't feel worthless to try to go that route. That's why every contestant who makes lives there usually ends with +100k followers and the frontrunners can even cross 300/400k, etc.

I think it’s because Idol focuses on the contestants, not the judges. I don’t really buy that a big part of the audience are young people, someone like Laine wouldn’t have won if that was the case. I would argue both shows share the same audience.

[TeamAudra]

Even here on IDF, which skews younger, people always hope their snowflake gets some old classic ballad, a country song (nothing too current, though), or a religious song. Anything too current is usually seen as a massive bus. For country singers, singing Kacey Musgraves is even a bit of a risk. 

Edited December 14, 2021 by TeamAudra

[Dai]

1 minute ago, TeamAudra said:

Even here on IDF, which skews younger, people always hope their snowflake gets some old classic ballad, a country song (nothing too current, though), or a religious song. Anything too current is usually seen as a massive bus. Even for country singers, singing Kacey Musgraves is a bit of a risk. 

I get it. People want their favorites to stick around. Although I also love whenever a contestant dgaf, like LiBianca or Savanna last season, even if they are obviously DOA whenever the audience gets a chance to vote.

[kurumi]

7 hours ago, wildestinvegas said:

I disagree tbh. With idol at least, a big part of the audience are young people so they react much better to current stuff than The Voice's audience or at least the people who react better to it are a decent part of the audience to the point where it doesn't feel worthless to try to go that route. That's why every contestant who makes lives there usually ends with +100k followers and the frontrunners can even cross 300/400k, etc.

It doesn't matter whether they gained significant number of followers after the show. They are still not as successful as past alumni like Kelly, Jennifer, Carrie or from other show's contestants like the members of 1D and Little Mix. Reality singing competitions right now can hardly produce successful artists, they're just for entertainment now. American Idol now really makes me yawn. I prefer The Voice. I enjoy the banter with the coaches and how competitive they get with each other. Entertainment value would go to the voice, hands down

[kurumi]

7 hours ago, Daillon said:

I think it’s because Idol focuses on the contestants, not the judges. I don’t really buy that a big part of the audience are young people, someone like Laine wouldn’t have won if that was the case. I would argue both shows share the same audience.

The Voice doesn't care about their contestants' post career. They just want a good show. By far, they've been doing good despite the declining ratings. They managed to beat American Idol in the ratings game and has been nominated for Emmys consistently. Meanwhile, American Idol.... i don't know her

[Thoughts and Sounds]

Voting has been closed for a while, but one final SM update for the season.

 

	VIews (1000s)	Likes (1000s)	Likes/1k views
Facebook
Upbeat
Hailey	162.8	4.3	26.4
Paris	75.9	4	52.7
GNT	356.5	13	36.5
Jershika	93.3	4.2	45.0
Wendy	242.6	8.2	33.8
Ballad
Hailey	107.2	4.7	43.8
Paris	124.3	7.1	57.1
GNT	229.3	9.1	39.7
Jershika	100.2	3.6	35.9
Wendy	317	12	37.9
Youtube
Upbeat
Hailey	200	8.3	41.5
Paris	78	2.4	30.8
GNT	197	6.3	32.0
Jershika	136	5.8	42.6
Wendy	155	5	32.3
Ballad
Hailey	192	9.5	49.5
Paris	100	3.4	34.0
GNT	159	4.8	30.2
Jershika	91	3.4	37.4
Wendy	211	8.3	39.3

 

For facebook, Wendy and GNT have so many more views than anyone else that there's no way to really compare.

Across both performances, GNT has 586k views, 22.1k reacts for a ratio of 37.7 per 1k.  Wendy has 559k views, 20.2k reacts, for a ratio of 36.1 per 1k.

Wendy's obviously strongest with OTR and GNT with The Chain. 

 

Overall, pretty good numbers for both, and a very high note for Wendy to end the season on.

 

Again, Hailey does so much better on youtube it's not even funny, but her Billie cover was just better received across the board than Deja Vu. Wendy is probably second overall on youtube off the back of OTR, but it's a pretty fat gap  (and at least Jershika is doing well on YT this time around, makes me happy)

[TeamAudra]

The relative YouTube love for Deja Vu is definitely fascinating. The ones who don’t like it are totally dismissive of it (they mostly don’t like the song), but the ones who love it, really love it. You can see the number of likes on it, 2nd overall, behind her ballad. After watching it a couple times, that wasn’t as bad of a vocal as IDF thinks it is. It’s just not really a typical song for a singing competition, and I would imagine it’s difficult to get the sound right. They have enough trouble with that on simple ballads. 

[season1]

On 12/14/2021 at 6:48 AM, season1 said:

 

UPDATED DATA (after 0600 hours):

 

 

NOTES:

Not much changed in ranking except the average rank values for overall average tightened up among the Top 3 and they're almost tied. This was due to swap in rank between GNT and Wendy on FB Likes and Twitter Likes (Wendy is now ahead of GNT).

 

1. GNT is still winning according to the 5 summaries/averages.

2. Wendy is 2nd in 4 out of 5 ranking summaries. Hailey is slightly ahead of Wendy for 2nd on the overall average, due to Hailey's leads in YT, IG and TW.

3. According to the ranking summaries, Jershika's ceiling is 4th and Paris' ceiling is 3rd.

 

SOCIAL MEDIA VS RESULTS:

 

 

Of the 5 summaries/averages, 2 accurately predicted the results:

 

1. Average FB - average rank based on FB views, likes and LV ratio.

2. iTunes

 

Google Trends (GT4) got the Top 2 and 5th place. It is the 3rd notable metric in terms of predictive value.

Average LV Ratios (yellow shade) only predicted the Top 2 and missed 3-5 finishers.

Overall average (gray shade, heavily skewed by IG, Twitter and YT data) only predicted the winner and missed the rest.

 

Additional Observations:

1. FB and iTunes are still predictive of results in the Finale. 

2. Covers//videos of current popular songs (that appeals to young people) may skew the metrics by getting massive views and reactions on IG, YT and Twitter.

Edited December 15, 2021 by season1

[+octoberdana]

There are too many singing competitions and too many seasons of all these shows to expect all these winners to turn into mega stars.  Had Kelly and Carrie been in later seasons it may even had been harder for them.