S21 Social Media Stats

[TeamAudra]

11 minutes ago, FloorWax said:

 

That's what I'm beginning to think. J&S were never near the bottom on FB.

I just look at your stats on the OP. This week, J&S was 5/11 on both views and reacts, but 9/11 on the ratio. The fact that they were on the bottom is definitely a huge red flag. Ariana has 43 million followers on Facebook. Just sayin’. She actually reposed that team performance to her page, which explains the high numbers. 

Edited November 28, 2021 by TeamAudra

[Misirlou]

3 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

I just look at your stats on the OP. This week, J&S was 5/11 on both views and reacts, but 9/11 on the ratio. The fact that they were on the bottom is definitely a huge red flag. Ariana has 43 million followers on Facebook. Just sayin’. She actually reposed that team performance to her page, which explains the high numbers. 

For Team Ariana?

 

 

[TeamAudra]

Just now, Misirlou said:

For Team Ariana?

 

 

Yeah, despite J&S having top 5 numbers on views and reacts, they were on the bottom. 

[TeamAudra]

One last Spotify update for the week, since Wendy’s number is showing up now. 
 

GNT 19,463

Hailey 15,333

J&S 4700

Jershika 3230

Holly 2753

Lana 2666

Paris 2281

Gymani 2278

Joshua 1878

Jeremy 1636

Wendy 1134 

[TeamAudra]

Youtube mentions: 

 

This the best of the week video. I did this one last night. Based on the first 388 comments. I did not tally negative mentions. 
 

Hailey 40

GNT 33

Holly 26

Wendy 23

Joshua 19

Paris 14

Jershika 13

Jeremy 9

J&S 7

Lana 4

 

This is from the look ahead video. The first 220 comments. Again, I didn’t count negative mentions. If I had, the one on the bottom would be in the lead. I did this quick, so I might have missed a couple, but it’s close enough. 
 

Hailey 23

GNT 19

Jershika 11

Wendy 10

Joshua 7

Holly 5

Paris 5

Lana 3

Jeremy 3

J&S 0

 

An observation: GNT probably leads with mentions that think they will win, but Hailey leads mentions of those who want her to win. 
 

 

 

Edited November 29, 2021 by TeamAudra

[Rodney]

5 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

This is from the look ahead video. The first 220 comments. Again, I didn’t count negative mentions. If I had, the one on the bottom would be in the lead. I did this quick, so I might have missed a couple, but it’s close enough. 
 

Hailey 23

GNT 19

Jershika 11

Wendy 10

Joshua 7

Paris 5

Lana 3

Jeremy 3

J&S 0

Hmm. . . . What's wrong with this picture?

[TeamAudra]

16 minutes ago, Rodney said:

Hmm. . . . What's wrong with this picture?

I don’t know. You tell me. 

[Rodney]

Just now, TeamAudra said:

I don’t know. You tell me. 

Holly's missing.

[TeamAudra]

6 minutes ago, Rodney said:

Holly's missing.

I edited it. She had 5 in the 2nd video. 

[Gustavo527]

56 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

Youtube mentions: 

 

This the best of the week video. I did this one last night. Based on the first 388 comments. I did not tally negative mentions. 
 

Hailey 40

GNT 33

Holly 26

Wendy 23

Joshua 19

Paris 14

Jershika 13

Jeremy 9

J&S 7

Lana 4

 

This is from the look ahead video. The first 220 comments. Again, I didn’t count negative mentions. If I had, the one on the bottom would be in the lead. I did this quick, so I might have missed a couple, but it’s close enough. 
 

Hailey 23

GNT 19

Jershika 11

Wendy 10

Joshua 7

Holly 5

Paris 5

Lana 3

Jeremy 3

J&S 0

 

An observation: GNT probably leads with mentions that think they will win, but Hailey leads mentions of those who want her to win. 
 

 

 

It looks like Jeremy and Lana are not that much liked on YouTube (And Jim and Sasha, but wbk) 

[Misirlou]

2 minutes ago, Gustavo527 said:

It looks like Jeremy and Lana are not that much liked on YouTube (And Jim and Sasha, but wbk) 

On SM in general, Lana is very controversial. Jim and Sasha as well.

 

Reception for Jeremy across SM radicates "indiference". Not bad, not great, it´s very middle ground.

[VintageVoice]

1 minute ago, Misirlou said:

On SM in general, Lana is very controversial. Jim and Sasha as well.

 

Reception for Jeremy across SM radicates "indiference". Not bad, not great, it´s very middle ground.

"Middle ground" + a passable song choice = probably safe this week (or at least in a good place to potentially win the Save if Lana and J&S are in there with him).

[TeamAudra]

If social media/YouTube/Spotify are providing and accurate picture of voting, this is the most sudden ascension I can recall from instant save to contender status. Emily Ann Roberts finished as runner up, but that developed over a longer period of time. EDIT: Emily was a coach save, so never mind. 

Edited November 29, 2021 by TeamAudra

[Misirlou]

6 minutes ago, VintageVoice said:

"Middle ground" + a passable song choice = probably safe this week (or at least in a good place to potentially win the Save if Lana and J&S are in there with him).

If we find his song choice this week in hopefully a couple of hours, we could have a better understanding.

 

The way I see it, I think he could survive this week (be it PV or IS) if he gets a decent song choice and does decently as well, which he very well can do.

 

He´s done next week though, unless he pulls out the Carrie card for the second time on a singing competition and sings himself through the IS. The problem is there are stronger competitors.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Misirlou

[Gmm99]

2 hours Post-Show FB stats:

 

Artist Views Reacts V/Reacts Shares Paris Winningham 32.7K 2.4K 13.625 255 Hailey Mia 27.8K 1.3K 21.384 112 Girl Named Tom 55.1K 2.5K 22.04 342 Joshua Vacanti 32.5K 1.4K 23.214 119 Jeremy Rosado 31.1K 1.2K 25.92 119 Jershika Maple 28.6K 1.1K 26 78 Jim and Sasha Allen 58.3K 2.2K 26.5 125 Wendy Moten 58.9K 2.2K 26.77 148 Lana Scott 61.5K 1.9K 32.368 116 Holly Forbes 79.8K 2.3K 34.695 179

 

 

Initial thoughts:

• To the surprise of no one, GNT is doing the best across the board.
• Again, Jim & Sasha are doing decent...but they also had decent numbers last week and they landed in the bottom...
• Paris has the best V/L ratio, also second in shares and reactions of the night.

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Gmm99

[Gmm99]

Artist	Views (in K)	Likes (in K)	V/L	Shares
Paris Winningham	54.3	3.5	15.51429	331
Hailey Mia	51.2	2.2	23.27273	144
Jershika Maple	37.6	1.5	25.06667	87
Joshua Vacanti	48.2	1.9	25.36842	141
Wendy Moten	71.6	2.8	25.57143	164
Girl Named Tom	100.3	3.9	25.71795	431
Jim and Sasha Allen	92.6	3.3	28.06061	187
Jeremy Rosado	39.4	1.4	28.14286	132
Lana Scott	80	2.5	32	135
Holly Forbes	97.7	2.8	34.8928	208

 

**Ranking with respect to V/L ratio in descending order.

 

Last(?) FB update before voting closes:

• Paris still in the lead for Views/Like ratio and still in second in likes and shares.
• GNT leading across the board except for the views to likes ratio.

Edited November 30, 2021 by Gmm99

[FloorWax]

29 minutes ago, Gmm99 said:

Artist	Views (in K)	Likes (in K)	V/L	Shares
Paris Winningham	54.3	3.5	15.51429	331
Hailey Mia	51.2	2.2	23.27273	144
Jershika Maple	37.6	1.5	25.06667	87
Joshua Vacanti	48.2	1.9	25.36842	141
Wendy Moten	71.6	2.8	25.57143	164
Girl Named Tom	100.3	3.9	25.71795	431
Jim and Sasha Allen	92.6	3.3	28.06061	187
Jeremy Rosado	39.4	1.4	28.14286	132
Lana Scott	80	2.5	32	135
Holly Forbes	97.7	2.8	34.8928	208

 

**Ranking with respect to V/L ratio in descending order.

 

Last(?) FB update before voting closes:

• Paris still in the lead for Views/Like ratio and still in second in likes and shares.
• GNT leading across the board except for the views to likes ratio.

 

thanks for this, I'm too busy to update stats right now.

[Wim]

3 hours ago, Gmm99 said:

Artist	Views (in K)	Likes (in K)	V/L	Shares
Paris Winningham	54.3	3.5	15.51429	331
Hailey Mia	51.2	2.2	23.27273	144
Jershika Maple	37.6	1.5	25.06667	87
Joshua Vacanti	48.2	1.9	25.36842	141
Wendy Moten	71.6	2.8	25.57143	164
Girl Named Tom	100.3	3.9	25.71795	431
Jim and Sasha Allen	92.6	3.3	28.06061	187
Jeremy Rosado	39.4	1.4	28.14286	132
Lana Scott	80	2.5	32	135
Holly Forbes	97.7	2.8	34.8928	208

 

**Ranking with respect to V/L ratio in descending order.

 

Last(?) FB update before voting closes:

• Paris still in the lead for Views/Like ratio and still in second in likes and shares.
• GNT leading across the board except for the views to likes ratio.

Still trying to understand significance of the numbers.  What conclusions would you draw from this data set? Or are these raw data reference points from which we shouldn't draw conclusions?

 

For example, would the data support a conclusion that J&S are safe from bottom 3? Third in views and total likes, but ratio in fourth from bottom, total shares in Fourth.

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by WastedinMemphis

[Misirlou]

7 minutes ago, WastedinMemphis said:

For example, would the data support a conclusion that J&S are safe from bottom 3? Third in views and total likes, but ratio in bottom four, total shares in Fourth.

 

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this was also the case for them last week. Good numbers in views and likes, but bad ratio.

[Wim]

3 hours ago, Misirlou said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this was also the case for them last week. Good numbers in views and likes, but bad ratio.

Edited

 

Good point in using interweek comparison as to J&S. But I don't think that it speaks to what we can conclude from a week's data set.  It might be that backward comparing past weeks data vs. outcome could suggest which parts of the data could more reliably support predictions.  As to J&S standing alone, it might suggest chucking out the whole set as not a reliable indicator of success since they finished B3. As to GNT, it might suggest chucking out just the ratio. It's likely a broader sample of past performances would be needed for even those types of conclusions. Or, alternatively, a fuller analysis might suggest that the Facebook data sources (self-selected members of Facebook, then TV viewers on Facebook, then a small subset who click a like button) are sufficiently different from the universe of actual voters that it can't reliably/consistently predict anything.

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by WastedinMemphis

[Cookie73]

Jim and Sasha had decent stats last week with a bottom placement so I’m not sure about them escaping B3 yet. Also, their performance said Team Ariana, which might result in more views, and they didn’t do this for the other performers.

[TeamAudra]

9 minutes ago, WastedinMemphis said:

Good point in using interweek comparison as to J&S. But I don't think that it speaks to what we can conclude from a week's data set.  It might suggest that backward comparing past weeks data vs. outcome could suggest which parts of the data could more reliably support predictions.  As to J&S standing alone, it might suggest chucking out the like ratio as not a reliable indicator of success. I don't think that's what IDF thinks but unsure.

None of the indicators are perfect, but the problem with using only raw numbers of reacts and views is the differences in when the videos were posted. Holly’s and Wendy’s were posted in the first 1/2 hour of the show, and Hailey’s was finally posted almost an hour post-show. The ratio at least isn’t affected by that. 

[VintageVoice]

3 hours ago, Gmm99 said:

Artist	Views (in K)	Likes (in K)	V/L	Shares
Paris Winningham	54.3	3.5	15.51429	331
Hailey Mia	51.2	2.2	23.27273	144
Jershika Maple	37.6	1.5	25.06667	87
Joshua Vacanti	48.2	1.9	25.36842	141
Wendy Moten	71.6	2.8	25.57143	164
Girl Named Tom	100.3	3.9	25.71795	431
Jim and Sasha Allen	92.6	3.3	28.06061	187
Jeremy Rosado	39.4	1.4	28.14286	132
Lana Scott	80	2.5	32	135
Holly Forbes	97.7	2.8	34.8928	208

 

**Ranking with respect to V/L ratio in descending order.

 

Last(?) FB update before voting closes:

• Paris still in the lead for Views/Like ratio and still in second in likes and shares.
• GNT leading across the board except for the views to likes ratio.

Crossing my fingers that Jershika is safe based off V/L ratio, since she’s technically beating GNT there (and GNT ‘s stats overall suggest they’ll move on).

[Misirlou]

We can't even make assumptions based on FB comments, since Paris and Hailey were the only ones with full on positivity. The rest vary from mixed to negative.

[Wim]

1 hour ago, Cookie73 said:

Jim and Sasha had decent stats last week with a bottom placement so I’m not sure about them escaping B3 yet. Also, their performance said Team Ariana, which might result in more views, and they didn’t do this for the other performers.

They also did relatively well in likes, if not like ratio, though they weren't bottom 3 in ratio. We might have to sidle off into multiple regression analysis to figure out what extraneous factors had influence (including posting time since the absolute significance of differences average down over time).  Been there, don't wanna go back. But your point is well made that extraneous factors may affect Facebook data that don't impact voting or that impact it in unpredictable ways.

 

I suppose that if Facebook stats are seen as basically a swag, then who cares? It appears even then that it's likely to be misleading to focus on any one of the stats alone.

 

Not trying to make any kind of case for J&S.  Just trying to understand how folks are reading, or are inclined to read, the numbers.

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by WastedinMemphis