An analysis of the final results

[CarmenSandiego]

Wow.  I don’t think that a lot of people predicted that Just Sam would win the whole thing.  I know that even though she was my favorite, I didn’t really predict that she would win, especially after reading Muse273’s last article.  And yet, not only did she make the Top 2, she won!

 

So how did she succeed?  And just as important, why did the four guys with her in the finale all lose?  Was it because there were so many guys who played guitar that they canceled each other out?  That may have played a role, but I don’t think that it played a major role.  Nor do I think that the fact that Dillon, Francisco and Jonny all came from California played a major role in their failure to make the Top 2.  It may have hurt them, but not so badly that it was the only reason for their defeat.  This thread will explain my belief about why Just Sam won, and why the four guys lost.

 

Let’s begin with Jonny, whom I believe came in fifth.  I think that Muse hit the nail right on the head:  Jonny is an introverted performer with a definite slacker vibe.  He’s got a gentle style which doesn’t really lend itself to moments like Fantasia’s rendition of “Summertime”.  So while his connection to Margie Mays got him fans and his performances never put them off, they also did nothing to bring him new fans.  And without a powerful performance style, his fans could only take him so far.  Like fifth place.

 

While I’m not completely sure that Dillon came in fourth place, that’s where I think he wound up, so I’ll turn to him next.  I’m sure that Muse273 is surprised by Dillon’s failure, since he thought that Dillon would pull off the win.  Indeed, he had quite a few things going for him.  He was a WGWG.  More important, he could do country.  On paper, that should have gotten him a lot of fans, and helped push him to victory.  So why didn’t he even make the Top 2?

 

One reason why might be because, despite all these advantages, he wasn’t a front runner:  Arthur and Just Sam were the front runners, with Francisco soon joining them.  Dillon was a dark horse.  And in this shortened season, he didn’t have the time to really benefit from any major fumbles.  Had the season been a regular one, I’m pretty sure that he could have gotten past Arthur at least.  But in this shortened season?  Not so much.

 

Another problem is the fact that he and Just Sam have really sad backstories, but Just Sam was able to be the feel-good contestant of this season, while Dillon wasn’t.  This could be because addiction might not be as relatable as the struggles Just Sam had.  Or maybe his innate temperament is more stoic than Just Sam’s.  Or maybe both.  Either way, Just Sam had him beat when it came to connecting with fans through a powerful backstory, and Dillon couldn’t get past her either.

 

Francisco is also something of a surprise.  I really thought that he might get into the finale ahead of Just Sam.  He’s a cute non threatening boy who can play a guitar.  A recipe for an Idol victory, right?  Not here.  And I think that the reason is because he didn’t have the killer instinct needed to make for a great performance.  His two performances were very good but I wouldn’t have called them great.  Also, perhaps I (and a lot of others) thought that he had more fans than he really did.

 

And now, here’s Arthur.  He was not only a front runner, he was probably the front runner of the season!  He had a very vocal fan base and he was praised to the skies by the judges. So what went wrong?  Muse probably called it right:  Arthur was a contestant whose singing style you either loved or hated.  I didn’t like it, particularly when the voting rounds began, and I wasn’t the only one.  He was much like Alejandro or Adam Lambert, both of whom were contestants you either loved or hated — and in both cases, I didn’t like, especially Adam.  I couldn’t stand his singing style to the point that I’d have voted for anyone but him.  I didn’t get to that point with Arthur, but his style had a similar effect on me, especially on “Take Me Home (Country Roads)”.  And if you have a singing or performance style that rubs enough people the wrong way, a dedicated core fan base can only take you so far.

 

Just Sam managed to avoid all the problems which befell the others.  She had a much more powerful singing style than Jonny.  She had a backstory that really pulled at the heartstrings, especially with her emotional and humble nature.  She had a killer instinct which enabled her to pull out the right song for her first single.  And her singing style gave her a broader appeal than Arthur’s did, while her backstory gave her an even broader appeal.  That is why she won, and why the four guys all lost.

 

Edited May 22, 2020 by CarmenSandiego

[Carrie_On]

I think Just Sam and Arthur probably led the votes every week. Production knew to give Sam a duet with Lauren Daigle. Like Fantasia, I think her story and personality clicked with the voters. Arthur has a lot of international fans, which is why his social media numbers look so inflated. 

[holinessss]

as much as i like social media stats, etc., you can never sleep on the casuals - there was about a million more viewers for the finale than all the past live shows

 

she slayed 

[CarmenSandiego]

1 hour ago, Carrie_On said:

I think Just Sam and Arthur probably led the votes every week. Production knew to give Sam a duet with Lauren Daigle. Like Fantasia, I think her story and personality clicked with the voters. Arthur has a lot of international fans, which is why his social media numbers look so inflated. 

Yeah, in retrospect I agree that Arthur and Just Sam led the votes every week, which just proves my point that Dillon was never a front runner.  A dark horse, yes, but a front runner?  Nope.  And Just Sam followed in Fantasia’s footsteps by having a story and personality that clicked with the voters, especially now with the coronavirus.  I don’t know if Dillon’s story clicked with the voters or not, but I don’t think his personality did — at least, not as much as Just Sam’s did.

[blackfield]

I agree with what the OP wrote. it was clear the 3 frontrunners and top vote getters where arthur, sam and francisco (if the social media metrics were correct) and the fact that francisco wasn't good or exciting with any of his top 5 performances, sam just passed him easily. also I do think that because the west coast couldn't watch and vote in real time was partly why the 3 guys from california didn't make the top 2. wish they would have revealed the results and who made it 5th, 4th and 3rd. I can actually see dillon passing francisco and making 3rd place after 2 weeks in a row having the best performances. dillon was never a frontrunner. more of a dark horse which at normal longer season could have made it even higher. also i never thought of arthur being the highest vote getter. and add to the fact that with julia gone, sam as the last girl will attract the votes of all those who want a girl to win. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by blackfield

[JC]

Yeah, I think Francisco was definitely hurt by east coast bias but glad Sam somehow beat out Arthur!

[jjeem]

I became a fan of Jonny because of his audition.

I think he came in 3rd or 4th.

 

Had California voted properly I think the result might be slightly different. Western voters got screwed over by this format.

 

 

 

Edited May 19, 2020 by jjeem

[KelseyW]

All of this makes sense. Thanks!

 

 

Do we know the placements of Jonny, Dillon, and Francisco? Like who was 3rd-5th?

[Guest]

What about the west coast?

[CarmenSandiego]

1 hour ago, Drew said:

What about the west coast?

Well, I did note that the fact that Dillon, Francisco and Jonny all lived in California probably hurt them, but I also stated that I didn’t think it was a major reason for their failure to win.  That said, it’s possible that Francisco might have gotten past Arthur had he lived in a state where people could vote while watching the show (i.e., not on the West Coast).  I don’t think that he would have won, because I think that he didn’t have a “killer instinct” which would have enabled him to pick songs that would weaponize his strengths, but he might have come in second.  I think that Dillon and Jonny wouldn’t have made the Top 2 anyway.

[ScarletDevilCCX]

I think you've captured it perfectly. I was surprised at first because of how minorities rarely do well on this show, but there were a lot of things working in her favor. Yes, her "feel-good story" factor was being cut into by Dillon, but she stood out in a lot of ways in the Finale. Lone female contestant, lone black contestant, and yes, there's the New York City factor. Funny thing about NYC; when there's a crisis, the whole country puts aside its usual attitude towards them. Just look at 2001, when the country that loves an underdog instead deemed an overbearing dynasty a "sentimental favorite" in the World Series. And this certainly qualifies; when things started shutting down left and right in March, I was praying that they'd go the "no studio audience" route rather than the "shut down completely" route largely for her sake; she in particular was a contestant that I wanted to see stay in Hollywood for as long as possible, away from NYC.

 

And New Yorkers are a force to be reckoned with, given their huge population. Surely a large portion of the city knows someone just like Sam, singing or playing an instrument on the subway just trying to get by. She resonated with them, and add to it the fact that, faced with the prospect of returning to Harlem, to her grandmother, she felt it most prudent to stay in LA rather than risk the health of the woman who raised her, and it became obvious who the sentimental favorite was. From a pure talent perspective, you could make an argument for any of a number of these contestants being the most deserving. But add in the human element, and there's just one person who deserves this break the most.

 

Just Sam. 

[CarmenSandiego]

1 hour ago, ScarletDevilCCX said:

I think you've captured it perfectly. I was surprised at first because of how minorities rarely do well on this show, but there were a lot of things working in her favor. Yes, her "feel-good story" factor was being cut into by Dillon, but she stood out in a lot of ways in the Finale. Lone female contestant, lone black contestant, and yes, there's the New York City factor. Funny thing about NYC; when there's a crisis, the whole country puts aside its usual attitude towards them. Just look at 2001, when the country that loves an underdog instead deemed an overbearing dynasty a "sentimental favorite" in the World Series. And this certainly qualifies; when things started shutting down left and right in March, I was praying that they'd go the "no studio audience" route rather than the "shut down completely" route largely for her sake; she in particular was a contestant that I wanted to see stay in Hollywood for as long as possible, away from NYC.

 

And New Yorkers are a force to be reckoned with, given their huge population. Surely a large portion of the city knows someone just like Sam, singing or playing an instrument on the subway just trying to get by. She resonated with them, and add to it the fact that, faced with the prospect of returning to Harlem, to her grandmother, she felt it most prudent to stay in LA rather than risk the health of the woman who raised her, and it became obvious who the sentimental favorite was. From a pure talent perspective, you could make an argument for any of a number of these contestants being the most deserving. But add in the human element, and there's just one person who deserves this break the most.

 

Just Sam. 

What you said about Just Sam being the most deserving of the win from the human perspective of being a sentimental favorite, that’s absolutely true, and I think that the fact that her story so resonated with people is a major reason why she won.

[Crisis]

I just wanted to say this was a very solid, well-written, and detailed analysis about why the results turned out the way they were. After reading it over a few times, a lot of great points were made. I was reading to see if there was anything I could've added; however, after reading this and other posts, I realized there was nothing I could add. I was happy to see Sam win, and this explained how she possibly ended up with the title.

[CarmenSandiego]

1 hour ago, Crisis said:

I just wanted to say this was a very solid, well-written, and detailed analysis about why the results turned out the way they were. After reading it over a few times, a lot of great points were made. I was reading to see if there was anything I could've added; however, after reading this and other posts, I realized there was nothing I could add. I was happy to see Sam win, and this explained how she possibly ended up with the title.

I’m glad that you liked my analysis of the final results.  I’m analytical by nature and the surprising results demanded an analysis of why Just Sam ended up winning, which I tried to provide.

[psterina]

Very good analysis, CarmenSadiego. You hit the nail on the head. People, really did connect to HER. She is very deserving of this win. Still so happy for her.

[CarmenSandiego]

2 hours ago, psterina said:

Very good analysis, CarmenSadiego. You hit the nail on the head. People, really did connect to HER. She is very deserving of this win. Still so happy for her.

Thanks.  I’m so happy for her too.

Edited May 24, 2020 by CarmenSandiego

[wgm]

I agree with everyone,  everyone has made good points, i have may be one or two of my own. First, let's go back to her inital audition, she is from Harlem New York, and she sings in a subway, her nerves get the best of her during Rise Up but you can already tell, that she has the judges in the palm of her hands and sounds beautiful on both songs. Right then, you knew, she would be a fan favorite. Two great songs, do we know if she has done these songs while singing in the subway? I'm surprised that with all these labels in New York that no on signed her already. Another suprising performance from her came in Hawaii showcase rounds, look at what we know about her from the previous rounds, she gave no indication that she could sing in another language. and BOOM, SHE KILLS AND SLAYS COMO LA FLOR by Selena, right then, she become the female to beat. Como La Flor was a winning performance right there and it stole the latino vote from Fransisco, he never stood a chance to win against her. That's why he lost.  Reason 1: The Latino vote. 

 

Idol started with 11 girls and 9 guys,  right there it  showed bias to the girls and the fans saw through that,   considering the fact that almost all the girls were talented, the fans got their revenge by voting out the girls,  I knew a female would win, i predicted a female would win in a earlier post. I knew Sam would win, the moment Julia was voted out.  Reason 2: The lone female vote.