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About ScarletDevilCCX

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  1. Ah, yes, that. I even noted on the previous page that the jump between preliminary and final ratings brought him from "not even able to edge out Grace Leer for 5th in the event that Just Sam gets cut at Top 20 (which was doubly possible because prior to normalization, she was tied with Cyniah)" to "able to beat out Sophia James for 5th even in the event Just Sam does make it." But with the decay curve dropping like crazy, I was wrong on two points: Jonny couldn't beat out Sophia, and Grace wouldn't have beaten out Kimmy in Top 11 anyway.
  2. Whereas Lauren Spencer-Smith would've become the first CSAB winner to not make the real finals. Except probably not really because it looks like Johnny would've made the finale?
  3. Beautiful. Went back and listened to her performance of this song on Idol for comparison, and while it was of course good, it wasn't one of her best, and I feel like she wasa trying too hard to imitate Janis. And then this cover sounds like pure Haley, no one else. She knows who she is, and she's a treasure.
  4. And CSAB is off! The counselors did ultimately rule that they'd be taking 11 contestants, not 10, which means I think the final punchline may involve the U.S. and Canada at war.
  5. American Idol hasn't been "buzzworthy" for years. The pandemic put a huge damper on the season; we literally had fewer total performances this year than seasons 4-7 and 9 had semifinal performances (also 12 if you count its "quarterfinals" and 15-17 if you count the celebrity duets). Count that up; that's 9 out of the 17 seasons that preceded this where we saw more live(ish) performances before we even had the Top 10/12 than we got from this entire season (not that they were really live, either.)
  6. And we've got gold! The s.d. for the season was so low that they said that a "proper" normalization would put the top performances of the year in range of the all-time record, and the bottom performance of the year at a negative 4. So they literally "flattened the curve". As for CSAB, we do have a conclusive 11th place finisher for the Top 20, and it is indeed Just Sam (still at a 49; Cyniah's dropped to a 48.) So yeah, the decision whether to go with 10 or 11 coming out of that episode will literally decide the winner. And if Sam is cut there, it would indeed be LSS, her lone performance now up to a 67--but possibly only because the finale had a reprise round, as what little data we have on people using projected ratings off a 67 average suggests that even though she's only going to them one performance earlier, it'd just barely be enough to put her behind Makayla's 60.5 average. Like, probably technically the same numerical ratings close. Speaking of Miss Spencer-Smith, the truncated season allowed her to become the first semifinalist to ever put a performance into a season's Top 10. Then again, prior to this season, the lowest the cutoff for the Top 10 had ever been was 76 (last year). Only 7 semifinalists ever had a performance grade out at 76 or higher, the record being 79 by Suzy Vulaca and Lauren Turner, and none of the seven came in a season with fewer than 11 5-star performances (Suzy in particular didn't even make her season's Top 20--S3 is one of only two seasons with over 20 5-star performances, and the other is S13, which had the most total performances and had them heavily weighed towards the best contestants.)
  7. I think you've captured it perfectly. I was surprised at first because of how minorities rarely do well on this show, but there were a lot of things working in her favor. Yes, her "feel-good story" factor was being cut into by Dillon, but she stood out in a lot of ways in the Finale. Lone female contestant, lone black contestant, and yes, there's the New York City factor. Funny thing about NYC; when there's a crisis, the whole country puts aside its usual attitude towards them. Just look at 2001, when the country that loves an underdog instead deemed an overbearing dynasty a "sentimental favorite" in the World Series. And this certainly qualifies; when things started shutting down left and right in March, I was praying that they'd go the "no studio audience" route rather than the "shut down completely" route largely for her sake; she in particular was a contestant that I wanted to see stay in Hollywood for as long as possible, away from NYC. And New Yorkers are a force to be reckoned with, given their huge population. Surely a large portion of the city knows someone just like Sam, singing or playing an instrument on the subway just trying to get by. She resonated with them, and add to it the fact that, faced with the prospect of returning to Harlem, to her grandmother, she felt it most prudent to stay in LA rather than risk the health of the woman who raised her, and it became obvious who the sentimental favorite was. From a pure talent perspective, you could make an argument for any of a number of these contestants being the most deserving. But add in the human element, and there's just one person who deserves this break the most. Just Sam.
  8. So ratings for the Finale have gone silver...If Just Sam makes the Top 11, she wins CSAB, too. If it's Cyniah who makes the Top 11, or if there's only a Top 10... I think it's Lauren Spencer-Smith. The fact that there was a reprise round means she does get a leg up on Makayla, and Francisco's performances were 50 and 37. Her reprise would be right around 50 as well, and her last projected rating would still be in the 40s. Edit: Oh, huh, I still have a tab with the bronze-star ratings. Here's the changes: The big movers were Arthur's "I Don't Want To Be" and Francisco's "Alaska", in opposite directions. The former went from 35 points and last place on the evening to 46 points and 7th, while the latter dropped from 60 points and third place to 50 points and tied for 5th. Neither of Jonny's performances moved a single point, but with "Stronger" also gaining, "You Can't Keep a Good Man Down" dropped from 7th to 9th, putting him just one spot away from a McPhee (but further than it'd seem, as "Adore You" dropped a few points. ...I think Francisco's bronze-star numbers would've been good enough for the CSAB title.) Dillon overtook Jonny for tops on the night overall, 120-118, with both of his numbers rising from the preliminary numbers.
  9. All of this makes sense. Mountain Time Zone was Carmen's home state, and LaKisha had had back-to-back poor performances in Top 7 and first Top 6, but brought it back in the second Top 6.
  10. Small sample sizes. We had a good cast this year, and America was mostly on point with their eliminations.
  11. This is the unpopular opinions thread. This opinion has no place here.
  12. Let's calm down on the hyperbole, wgm. Nobody's challenging Kelly/Carrie.
  13. So in the end, the discussion about whether to honor any "perfect games" is all but moot. Only two finalists actually ended with perfect games, one of whom needed a "save" just to avoid being a semifinalist. Back when they first conceived of the idea of a "perfect game", they said that the easiest way to do it would be to make it through the semifinals, then put up a forgettable performance in the low 50s early in the finals, noting that some contestants had come close to just that, with their final performances being their first sub-50s and still being very respectable (I believe S2's Vanessa Olivarez and S6's Stephanie Edwards were the ones they mentioned). And that is certainly what Sophia did. 55, 54, gone. And I consider that about right. She was decent but unremarkable. I'd be willing to honor that one, even if it seems ridiculous that a contestant who never even hit 4 stars could be considered for that honor. As for Makayla, the fact that she never advanced on America's vote even once probably disqualifies her, except that's totally not how it works given how close Olivia Rox came in S15.
  14. You clearly haven't watched this show in quite some time then! The virus kind of wrecked it, but the talent this season was at its highest since they performed a Y-chromosomectomy on Season 12 Season 11. Unless you only watched these past two weeks. Then your criticism is fine because the judges kind of dropped the ball in crafting a Top 20 and the voters really dropped the ball narrowing those 20 contestants down to 11 and then 7. I'm probably in the minority here, but I'd put the cut from 11 to 7 this year right up there with Season 9's 16 to 12 cutdown for worst quad-elimination by the voters.
  15. Nice catch. I hadn't even registered that all three of them were West Coasters. Also, hooray for the Northeast finally getting a winner that's worth a damn picking up their second champion! The South has always dominated this thing, and the Midwest has largely picked up the scraps. I think we're actually ahead of the West now; they've had their fair share of runners-up but Jordin's the only one that closed the deal (and we were guaranteed a Western winner in that finale; WA vs. AZ). Just wish it didn't have to be NY pulling through for us (I'm just joking about the first half; I like Nick Fradiani even if I do feel that he won more by disaster avoidance than actually overwhelming the competition. The part about NY is all true, though; I'm a New Englander by birth and have lived most of my life in the Philly area, so either way, New York teams are my teams' primary rivals in sports. Though back on the first half, there was a much better option for our first Northeastern winner sitting in the Top 3 that year!)
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