The American Politics Thread!

[ButterflyEffect]

So the USA is considering putting armed military members on our border? Are y'all going full East Germany on us, making sure Americans don't try and leave the country?

[RWG]

23 hours ago, bswanson said:

true but trump did downplay it. didnt he call it the common cold at first or was that sometihng he got from Fox News 

 

Yup. He and Fox News spent weeks potty training their base not to take the virus seriously.

 

3 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said:

So the USA is considering putting armed military members on our border? Are y'all going full East Germany on us, making sure Americans don't try and leave the country?

 

Apparently they've backed off.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/canada-objects-to-u-s-plan-to-put-troops-at-border-11585247654

 

I don't know the supposed reasoning was, but I'm guessing it was part of a larger campaign to equate the virus with migrants in general.

[Jonathan]

He's a  idiot!

[ATX29]

"The solution can't be worse than the problem." 

I don't often agree with the things Trump says, but this is probably the smartest thing I've heard him during all this.

[TeamAudra]

On 3/26/2020 at 7:14 PM, Jonathan said:

He's a  idiot!

Well, NY needs more than 2 ventilators, for sure, but they won’t need anywhere near 30-40,000.  
 

Cuomo said 3% of their patients end up in ICU. I’m not sure what percentage of those need a ventilator, but if we assume all of them do, that’s 1169 ventilators in use right now. Some have probably been taken off the ventilator, and sadly, some have died, which would make the number lower, but we can stick with worst case scenario for this example. The number needed is certainly going to increase, but not to the doomsday levels that some were predicting. Birx said they have 1000-2000 ventilators in NYC, that aren’t being used, and I’m sure they have contingency plans in place to provide more. For example, there are ventilators in states that aren’t having a huge problem with this that could be transported to NYC.  

[sneaky]

I will admit if Sanders or Trump was accused of what Biden is accused of...it would be front page ahead of the corona virus

[psterina]

15 hours ago, ATX29 said:

"The solution can't be worse than the problem." 

I don't often agree with the things Trump says, but this is probably the smartest thing I've heard him during all this.

 

I'm going to jump in here, and …. agree

[psterina]

5 hours ago, sneaky said:

I will admit if Sanders or Trump was accused of what Biden is accused of...it would be front page ahead of the corona virus

 

Most definitely!!  The MSM, is desperately trying to keep this quiet

 

[TeamAudra]

I realize nobody here wants to hear this, but Trump has really been at the top of his game in today’s briefing. If he could discipline himself to be like this all the time, his life would be much easier. 

[sneaky]

37 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

I realize nobody here wants to hear this, but Trump has really been at the top of his game in today’s briefing. If he could discipline himself to be like this all the time, his life would be much easier. 

Problem is even when I hear him on "top of his game" he still sounds...kinda dumb for a president

[TeamAudra]

50 minutes ago, sneaky said:

Problem is even when I hear him on "top of his game" he still sounds...kinda dumb for a president

I don’t think he sounded dumb today. He definitely has his own unique style, but he had complete control of the room, and appeared to be fully engaged in everything that’s  going on. One thing I noticed is he did a better job of not answering questions about the science, which makes sense, because he doesn’t have to. He has people on stage that can answer those questions better than anyone else in the world. CEO Trump is very effective, and he has the ultimate platform right now. It’s a nightly prime time TV show. 
 

 

[sneaky]

46 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

I don’t think he sounded dumb today. He definitely has his own unique style, but he had complete control of the room, and appeared to be fully engaged in everything that’s  going on. One thing I noticed is he did a better job of not answering questions about the science, which makes sense, because he doesn’t have to. He has people on stage that can answer those questions better than anyone else in the world. CEO Trump is very effective, and he has the ultimate platform right now. It’s a nightly prime time TV show. 
 

 

I haven't been watching him cause I know I will never get it. But I know he definitely has his appeal. He's got my state in the bag unless he goes all old school, evangelical Christian Republican. My state is pretty conservative economically I feel the only reason it became a swing state was the 80s and 90s born again rhetoric infiltrated the party.

[mercfan3]

14 hours ago, TeamAudra said:

Well, NY needs more than 2 ventilators, for sure, but they won’t need anywhere near 30-40,000.  
 

Cuomo said 3% of their patients end up in ICU. I’m not sure what percentage of those need a ventilator, but if we assume all of them do, that’s 1169 ventilators in use right now. Some have probably been taken off the ventilator, and sadly, some have died, which would make the number lower, but we can stick with worst case scenario for this example. The number needed is certainly going to increase, but not to the doomsday levels that some were predicting. Birx said they have 1000-2000 ventilators in NYC, that aren’t being used, and I’m sure they have contingency plans in place to provide more. For example, there are ventilators in states that aren’t having a huge problem with this that could be transported to NYC.  

 

 

Because the spread is growing exponentially. He doesn't need the 30,000 this week, but he will soon. 

 

New York is not the typical area. People live on top of each other. People are in and out of that city all the time.  I don't think it'll get that bad in many other places. (Although Florida and LA ought to watch it..) 

 

But NYC...even with social distancing, businesses shut down..etc..it's going to spread too fast. I don't see an end to this where NYC isn't decimated. The only thing that it has going for it, is that young people live there. 

[TeamAudra]

1 hour ago, mercfan3 said:

 

 

Because the spread is growing exponentially. He doesn't need the 30,000 this week, but he will soon. 

 

New York is not the typical area. People live on top of each other. People are in and out of that city all the time.  I don't think it'll get that bad in many other places. (Although Florida and LA ought to watch it..) 

 

But NYC...even with social distancing, businesses shut down..etc..it's going to spread too fast. I don't see an end to this where NYC isn't decimated. The only thing that it has going for it, is that young people live there. 

Which MSNBC host did you hear that from? I’m just going to assume you haven’t done the math.
 

Turns out the federal government sent them 4000 more that aren’t being used yet, according to the New York Commissioner of Health. 
 

Anyway, here’s the math. 
 

According to Cuomo, about 3% end up needing an ICU bed. He did not say how many of those need a ventilator. 
 

46,262 have tested positive in NY. 3% of that number is 1387 ventilators. That is worst case scenario, and assumes that all patients admitted to ICU are  using a ventilator, all at the same time, which we can reasonably assume is not the case. 
 

Based on the above assumptions, we would need approximately 1,000,000 - 1,300,000 positive tests to get to 30,000-40,000 patients requiring ICU care, AND all of them needing a ventilator at the same time for your claim to be accurate. 
 

Over the last few days, New York has reported roughly 5000-7000 new positive tests per day, and the rate of daily increase is slowing considerably (even Cuomo has mentioned this over the last few days) There’s no way in hell we’re going to get remotely close to your doomsday numbers. 
 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by TeamAudra

[sneaky]

Just a friendly reminder that we are a country of slightly humorous morons

 

 

[mercfan3]

Do you not know what exponential means? 
 

 

[TeamAudra]

2 hours ago, mercfan3 said:

Do you not know what exponential means? 
 

 

Of course I do, but nothing to date suggests New York will have the number of cases, in a short period of time, that would require anything close to 30,000-40,000 ventilators. Their daily rate of increased cases is slowing. The closing of businesses and social distancing is working. I’m not suggesting they don’t have challenges now, next week, or next year, because they clearly do. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by TeamAudra

[TeamAudra]

Per Trump, possible travel restrictions from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut coming this afternoon. 

[sneaky]

13 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

Per Trump, possible travel restrictions from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut coming this afternoon. 

Yes--please stop flying to the south, thanks

[TeamAudra]

Here’s the daily chart for NYC, which clearly shows the rate of daily growth in new cases is slowing. Yes, we need to see several more days of data, but so far, the numbers are well below the estimates of the doomsday models. I don’t fault Cuomo for preparing for worst case scenario, and asking for way more than he needs. That’s how negotiation works. He asks for 40,000, the federal government sends him 4000. I’m sure these decisions, relating to allocation of scarce resources, are being made by someone other than Trump, and I highly doubt NYC is going to left with a shortage of ventilators. 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by TeamAudra

[ButterflyEffect]

^ By 4pm yesterday the NY cases were at 30,765 for the 28th, an increase of 4068 cases, the second largest one day increase since 24th/25th. It would not appear that the rate of growth is slowing.

[TeamAudra]

2 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said:

^ By 4pm yesterday the NY cases were at 30,765 for the 28th, an increase of 4068 cases, the second largest one day increase since 24th/25th. It would not appear that the rate of growth is slowing.

Fair enough. It did go up. Let’s keep an eye on it. For today, it shows 1548, and I’m sure they’ll update that later too. My larger point was that it doesn’t appear to be increasing to the point of needing anything close to the number of ventilators Cuomo is demanding. He admitted himself that he has 4000+ in storage, just from the federal government. Meanwhile, I’m hearing credible reports of hospitals having to double up, in some cases. 

 

Based on what I can find, the average time period from onset of symptoms to death is approximately 14 days, so it is certainly going to get worse. 

Edited March 29, 2020 by TeamAudra

[TeamAudra]

Trump said in his prepared remarks that they expect the peak in death rate to occur in about two weeks. I’m guessing someone else calculated that for him. I think that’s good news, honestly. 
 

Social distancing guidelines extended until April 30, based on data from Fauci and Birx. 
 

To clarify, he said the two week peak for deaths is based on the modeling. 
 

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by TeamAudra

[RWG]

2 hours ago, TeamAudra said:

Trump said in his prepared remarks that they expect the peak in death rate to occur in about two weeks. I’m guessing someone else calculated that for him. I think that’s good news, honestly. 
 

Social distancing guidelines extended until April 30, based on data from Fauci and Birx. 
 

To clarify, he said the two week peak for deaths is based on the modeling. 
 

 

 

 

I don't know what he thinks he's declaring with these dates. The United States is a federalist system. Governors and mayors will decide when activities can resume in their areas.

 

Working backwards from a date is not helpful or realistic. It's better to think of how we re-open society, not when. Eg, things like eating out or going to the office will probably be green lighted sooner, and things like large sporting events and international travel will be last. Trump will want to make an announcement that the pandemic is over, and I'm guessing they will let him, but nothing's actually going to be different the next day.

[TeamAudra]

 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2020 by TeamAudra