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RWG

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  1. Conventional wisdom says likely. He's now got the same record that Harper had (1 majority, 2 minorities). After two straight elections with the same outcome, it's pretty clear that his 2015 coalition is gone, and that this is his ceiling. Knives will be out, and the Liberal party has Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland waiting in the wings. Who knows, maybe his ego is big enough to think he can win people back in a 4th election. You also have to consider that, as we saw in this election, some people's hatred for him is getting very extreme, and he might decide it isn't worth putting his family through this anymore. If this election has any significant effect, it could be that it gets rid of all the party leaders, as technically, they all failed. O'Toole probably has the best argument for staying on.
  2. Liberal minority. I guess that is the best possible outcome of the ones that were realistic.
  3. I think it's often against building codes to not have a 13th floor nowadays. Turns out, it kind of confuses emergency responders when they have to consider spiritual factors to figure out where the fire is. In BC they made it so you have to be vaccinated to go to something like a Canucks game. Given that he fired the anti-vaccination anthem singer, I don't think the owner would have had a problem refusing unvaccinated fans if he had to. I've never heard of anyone hating Fin... it's just a whale meant mostly for kids. Lots of people dislike the orca logo in general, as it's associated with the previous owner who was American. Among NHL mascots there is one bonafide star, Gritty, the others are all meh. The Oilers is awful though. Vancouver is going to be allowed partial capacity for preseason. The province says they could be allowed a full crowd by late October, but that seems optimistic. The Alberta teams are apparently starting with full capacity arenas, even though the situation with the hospitals there is very concerning. The Canucks still haven't signed Pettersson and Hughes. I feel like that's kind of an important thing they might want to think about checking off the list soon here. Pettersson and Hughes both have the same agent and it's clear they're prepared to scrap for every last penny. I wouldn't be shocked if at least one of them isn't done by training camp. If not both.
  4. The PPC candidates/supporters protest the hospitals here too. They've started entering elementary schools recently. It's sickening. But given how they're polling nationally now, it's hard to deny they should probably be in the debates if the Greens are. As for tomorrow, I have a feeling the Conservatives are going to pull it out. I know most models are only giving this a 1-in-5 chance of happening. It's a gut prediction. The closing polls seem ok for them, even though O'Toole's last week was really not good. I can just see a depressed Liberal turnout because their base is so unenthused. The only way I can a Liberal majority is if the PPC vote is something like 10%, a worst-case scenario for the Conservatives. I have a hunch the PPC vote won't really materialize, but who knows.
  5. Two props I'm interested in: 1. Will any party get over one-third of the vote? Most of the aggregators have the Libs and Cons more or less even in the low 30s. 2. Will we know the outcome on election night? I guess we will operate under the assumption more of the Liberal vote is mailed in? I randomly interacted with a PPC canvasser today. She didn't have any information on the candidate's positions on any of the issues facing the riding. Just vaccine passports (which are provincially mandated). She didn't react well to hearing my opinion of the party. This is a pretty liberal region, and the number of PPC signs you see on lawns is... not insignificant. I know lawn signs aren't a real metric, but you definitely see more PPC than CPC signs.
  6. Yeah. Conservatives probably need to be up by a few points nationally to win the most seats. Polling could be off by enough to result in a Conservative minority or Liberal majority, but it looks more or less like the 2019 election that gave us a Liberal minority. Issues associated with Covid seem to be affecting the election late. It's safe to say the situation in Alberta isn't helping O'Toole, and the vaccine passports appear to have given some oxygen to the PPC.
  7. Justin Trudeau is a silver spoon, born-on-3rd-base, Laurentian, arrogant unprincipled person, the most powerful person in Canada and the apex of privilege; these people "protesting" his rallies are pulling off the once-impossible feat of making me feel bad for him. Peaceful protests are essential, but the nooses, swastikas, threats, and throwing rocks make me feel embarrassed to be Canadian and just generally sad.
  8. This is probably the closest I've ever come to not voting. I'm done with all these parties. This election feels uniquely pointless and dumb in terms of ridiculous campaign promises. I'm certain none of them mean what they're saying on housing. They will not be rezoning these nimby neighborhoods to make them affordable, they will not do anything that hurts the property values of older Canadians who have all their savings in their homes, and they certainly will not be building a million homes in three years. This scale of grandiose promise making is imo a direct consequence of Trudeau's campaign lies about electoral reform. When you are able to lie about something so substantial and get away with it, the others will do it to. They'd be dumb not to. If I vote, it will probably be based on the local candidates, but even then, I don't know. My riding has an NDP incumbent I don't much care for. The Green candidate is like 25, and I'd just rather not vote for the Liberals or Conservatives. I am sick of Trudeau, but the Conservative party still has too many crazy people in it (MPs and base). I'd be worried about a Conservative gov't kowtowing to its base, especially on pandemic stuff.
  9. Mainstreet had the Liberals with a 14-point lead at the outset of the election. I think the Liberals are where they deserve to be -- with an embattled 6-year PM now in a close fight just to keep power -- but a fall this precipitous, with a complete collapse of Liberal support, based only on the election call? It is sort of hard to believe.
  10. The virtual tie in Atlantic Canada and Ontario is all the more alarming for Trudeau because we know polling often underestimates conservative support, like how it has missed some of the GOP vote in recent US elections.
  11. Trudeau will need to win the 905 to remain prime minister (imo, if a riding like Milton goes CPC, it's a sign he's in trouble nationally), and for a majority, hold Atlantic Canada, flip BQ seats in Quebec, and/or gain battlegrounds in metro Vancouver. A fast as the race has evened I would still guess Liberal minority for now, as they are competitive in the most ridings.
  12. RWG

    Baseball Thread

    Jays have had a tough 3-7 skid against several teams below .500, and their playoff odds are probably pooched now. Would be nice to see someone other than Montoyo managing the club next season. I know fans overplay the role of the manager and that a good one maybe buys an average team an extra 5 or so wins, but the number of one-run games lost over bullpen mgmt has been ridiculous.
  13. Yeah, I don't think it will be as stagnant an election as many people are saying. The recoil from just calling the election seems to have hurt the Liberals more than they expected.
  14. Pressuring Canada into reopening its border to Americans while keeping its own closed to Canadians is like the most American thing ever lol
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