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About ButterflyEffect

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  • Birthday 11/09/1989

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    St. John's, NL, Canada

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  1. I too ride a wave for US politics. I think it's going to be interesting come what happens the day after the election. Donald Trump has already planted the seeds for people to question the validity of the election. So no matter the outcome, people are going to be furious. There will be riots and protests. People will probably die.
  2. I think Minnesota is an often forgotten state that isn't a safe Democrat as most people assume (Audra could obviously weigh in on this). Clinton only won in 2016 by 1.5%, and while the state level polling average has Biden at appx +7.5% there right now, there are still plenty of decent pollsters only showing Biden around +2 to +3. If the Democrats take Minnesota for granted they could be in for a rude awakening.
  3. My prediction for NB tonight: PC - 26 LIB - 18 GRN - 4 PANB - 1 PC's squeak out a tiny majority thanks to Moncton East and Moncton South.
  4. Honestly I thought Michigan would be a tough flip, but state level polling has Biden up on an average around +8 on Trump. Well beyond the margin of error. Even Rasmussen (heavy Republican bias) has Biden up +9. Either every poll is wrong about Michigan, or it's not close. Based on polling though, Pennsylvania is a close race where Trump could easily hold.
  5. My first prediction of how election night will pan out.
  6. Yeah I find the "Joe Biden's America" thing hilarious. Bruh, do you not realize who's America this is currently happening in? LOL.
  7. It'd be a damning audio clip in just about every other democratic country in the world. But there is nothing that Trump could do to make Republicans run away from him.
  8. This entire thread aged like a fine milk
  9. An "I'm not Trump" campaign can get you in trouble if you don't provide any substance for the electorate to judge you by. It didn't work for Andrew Scheer vs. Justin Trudeau. Swing voters may be more comfortable with the demon they know (Trump) vs. one they know nothing about (Biden). Give people a reason to vote for you beyond "I'm not Trump" and you stand a much better chance.
  10. "Debunked" by saying it's not true. The difference between the two is that a few people felt comfortable enough to put their name to a statement. I can make statements about anything, and I can put my name on it. It doesn't mean anything. I'm not saying it's true or not. It's one of those things where there is almost no way to prove which side is right without audio evidence. Would it surprise me if Trump made those remarks? No, it does seem par the course for him. However that's sort of where it ends. And like I said before, even if evidence came to light showing that these accusations were true, it really doesn't matter. His brainwashed minions will still suck him off and fondle the balls while doing so. Democrats will continue to not vote for him. It doesn't change a thing. But to argue any position on this is laughable at best. Nothing has been confirmed or debunked, so you're hanging onto the side of the he-said-she-said which you like better, while telling the other side that they're wrong.
  11. I think a lot of governments are holding their breath until they see what happens in New Brunswick next week. If the PC government isn't punished for calling an election in the middle of a pandemic then I could see BC and PEI following suit very shortly after.
  12. You folks are hilarious. "It's been confirmed by a source" "It's been debunked by a source" You're all arguing with each other using the same argument. If something can't be taken at face value as the truth then it goes both ways. Unless y'all trying to be ironic.
  13. https://leantossup.ca/realclearpolitics-needs-to-fix-their-averages/ Commentary on some shady stuff happening at RCP since we were speaking about them just a few days ago. I don't particularly like the guys from Lean Tossup, I think they're brash and arrogant, but this commentary is spot on. You can't exclude polls if they're not showing what you want. This is the kind of stuff that comes back to bite you in the butt when your model ends up being wrong come election night.
  14. Even if it's not fabricated, it doesn't matter. If Trump hates dead and/or injured war veterans, then his brain dead, retarded supporters hate them too. Not really much to gain or lose here.
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