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About ButterflyEffect

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  • Birthday 11/09/1989

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    St. John's, NL, Canada
  1. Reading this article is pretty interesting, because it pretty much concludes that a myriad of factors which have helped Japan get through the storm relatively unscathed would not work if the same procedures were implemented in other countries. As well, did they really benefit from keeping the economy open? Japan slid into a recession and the next quarter is estimated to be the worst since World War 2.
  2. Yes, those are indeed the numbers. However, if you don't understand why it's important to talk about cases per capita as opposed to raw numbers then there's no hope for any meaningful discussion. If you for some reason can't understand why population statistics are most often discussed per capita, ponder this question. Which hypothetical country is doing worse? 1. A country of 10,000 people that has 8,500 confirmed cases 2. A country of 250,000 people that has 10,000 cases
  3. On a per capita basis Sweeden is 25th in the world (for most), with a infection rate of 3,288 per million people. If you need to know if that's good or not, it's not. And for death rate per million people, they're 8th in the world (for worst) with 396 per million. So by all intensive purposes they are doing freaking awful. But you believe whatever fake news you want to believe.
  4. Viruses typically don't have a very long lifespan on surfaces to begin with. Depending on the surface type you're typically only looking at a few hours maximum. Problems arise when infected surfaces are in high traffic areas, like a washroom doorknob in an office. Or more seriously: surfaces in hospitals, where spread of infection can happen quickly and have the most serious outcomes. Your chances of being infected after grabbing some produce at a store is near zero, your chance of becoming infected after touching a doorknob and not washing your hands are much higher. Infections will go down during the summer months as people get outside more and minimize close interactions with people inside. Much like the reason that your chances of getting the common cold or influenza are very small during the summer months. Once fall starts and people move back indoors we'll see infections bump again. That's why most people are predicting the second wave to hit September-onward despite things opening now.
  5. If you want to see how a hugely unpopular politician can turn around their fortunes with a good approach to COVID-19, check out Ontario Conservative Premier Doug Ford.
  6. Each province is working on their own opening timelines. My province as an example, is taking a very tough, strict approach. I would imagine the earliest that things like hair salons and restaurants will open is June 8th. We have a good reason to be doing so as well: as an island province, we have the ability to completely eliminate COVID from within our borders and keep it that way. Things didn't start well for us, we had the highest per capita infection rate at the end of March/early April in all of Canada. Strict and prompt measures from the government, along with co-operation from people saw us flatten our curve in only about a month or so. We're finishing the first wave with an infection rate of about 520 per million, and a mortality rate of 6 per million (despite having the oldest average age in Canada, highest obesity, highest rate of heart disease, etc). Testing rate of about 22,000 per million. Likely final numbers for us: 260 infections, 3 deaths, and as of today only 4 active cases. We can realistically have 0 cases in a few weeks. The travel ban will continue for us likely throughout the fall, and anyone returning to the province will be required to 14-day quarantine. Being an island, we have the advantage of being able to screen every single person that lands here. There are two ways in: by plane , or by boat, and both are controlled by authorities. It's unrealistic to think that this is over, of course. People will travel to other hot spots, get infected, and ignore quarantine when they return as guards get let down.
  7. I ordered clippers online about 3 weeks ago and they're still about 2-3 weeks away from delivery. One of two things will happen: they'll get here and I'll get to buzz my sides and back (but I'm not touching the top) and I end up looking like a member of Nazi Youth, or barber shops will open up before they arrive and I'll wait for 3 hours just to get a cut. I was also able to get a haircut literally just 3 days before everything was shut down by the government, however for some reason hair seems to grow faster when you can't actually go get it cut.
  8. If you want something hilarious to gawk at, check out LeanTossup, a Canadian polling aggregate and political simulator/modelling website. These dudes will defend their models to death, but check out their ridiculous prediction for the Presidential election.... https://leantossup.ca/us-presidency/ They like to claim that they predicted the 2019 Canadian election very well, but while they may have predicted a close seat count their district vote share % for each party were insanely bad. They underestimated Conservative support in both the Federal and Provincial elections of my home town by a whopping 12% and 30% respectively.
  9. Ultimately we're dealing with a virus with a high base reproduction number (higher than the common cold, influenza, or H1N1), high mortality rate (~ 20% of all "closed cases" have resulted in death), and a virus which can cause severe complications in young, healthy individuals who would otherwise be able to fight through something like influenza or H1N1. Unfortunately when you give people a inch they'll take a mile. Had the world stayed open for only the young and healthy, how many people would have actually taken it seriously? We do have a sense of immortality at our age, as unfounded as it is. Should everything open back up again tomorrow except for those at risk we're only going to prolong the lifecycle of the virus. Plus, those people still need to do things like buy groceries, possibly go to the bank, etc. We're essentially making it a lot more dangerous for them to go out and take care of essential business by us running around with no cares in the world. A lot have sacrifices have been made the past few months, and people are hurting and I understand that. However you need to think about this as a short term pain for a hopefully long term gain. Do our part for a few months so we can move forward hopefully very soon, otherwise we do nothing and prolong our own suffering. Eventually things will have to open, and it'll have to be long before there are 0 cases (that won't happen without a vaccine). When the floodgates do open again, it would be nice for the number of cases and hospitalizations to be at a decently low-moderate number. That, along with our new safety measures in place, can buy us time and slow the spread. I'm not 100% certain that the US was in the position, as of yet, to begin opening things, and only time will tell if it was a major mistake or not. I do understand the urgency of the situation considering there is an election staring Trump right in the face, and any president which faces an election with the unemployment numbers currently will be kicked to the curb, but if it backfires and cases uptick again there might be hell to pay.
  10. Vaccine development is very difficult. There's no guarantee that one will be developed at all, or within a timely manner. If scientists had kept up with vaccine development for SARS-CoV-1 back in the early 2000's we might be in better shape right now, but most people backed off vaccine development when the original SARS outbreak cleared itself up since the commercial market for the vaccine disappeared. Having a working vaccine for that right now would be a great starting point for developing a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. The phrase you're looking for is "far gone".
  11. Absolutely. And nurses in long-term care homes can take care of everyone there. The general population is a bit more challenging, but there are untapped resources which could be utilized, including medical residents and/or late program medical students (year 3 or 4) which could be deployed to help, given they are in good standing in their programs. It's certainly not ideal, but unfortunately nothing about this situation is ideal to begin with.
  12. Absolutely, and I know that they know how to properly give a vaccine. But do you really think Trump is talking about mobilizing only the medical folks in the military? I get the feeling that he wants all hands on deck since this is going to be such a large undertaking. Are pharmacists in the United States allowed to give vaccinations? That alone can take a huge burden off the system.
  13. lmao, are the good 'ol boys going to march from distribution centres to health clinics to hand deliver the vaccines? Air courier can achieve the same thing. Never mind, I clicked the article and read it. No thank you. I get that Trump thinks that this will help speed along the process since the military is huge, but I'd rather not have someone who may or may not have barely passed high school attempting to give me either an intramuscular or subcutaneous injection. It's not as trivial as it looks.
  14. You mean the Middle Class Health Benefits Repeal Act? Which made absolutely no mention of any sort of Coronavirus? Which was amended in March to remove all the previous stuff and essentially transform it into the CARES act? That has actual proof since it happened in the House? That you can easily find the House transcripts for? Like below? https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/2020/03/25/senate-section/article/S2059-1
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