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About ButterflyEffect

  • Birthday 11/09/1989

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    St. John's, NL, Canada

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  1. Two straight minorities in a row, including one where he made essentially no ground? Trudeau will survive short term but if the Liberal party has any intentions of improving their fortunes in the next election he won't be the Prime Minister. I agree with RWG that O'Toole may be the only leader (sans Bloc) who has made their case for staying on as leader. Even still, I imagine the right-wing of the Conservative party aren't happy of both his shift to the centre line and its failure to result in government. Depending on how angry the Western right is, he could be tossed to the curb for someone less centrist.
  2. I'd say the path to a CPC minority is: - A few seats picked up in Atlantic Canada (do-able) - Bloc hold what they have in QC or even win a few more from the Liberals (do-able) - Wide range of regional poll results for Ontario. They're going to need the actual result to be on the lower end of Liberal dominance. LIBs won by 9% in 2019 I think, the CPC is going to need the polling error to get them down under that a few points (This one is a who knows situation, since the polling is all over the place in ON it's a craps shoot) - PPC can't vote split anything in Southern Ontario (unknown) - CPC need to hold in AB and SK/MB. This one is going to be tough, since this is where the PPC vote splitting can really matter. Liberals or NDP may be able to win urban ridings if the PPC siphon off to many of those right-wing votes (unknown) - Regional polling about the Liberal collapse in BC needs to be true (I think it is) A lot of stuff needs to go right for them, but then again....it's nothing wildly out of left field. I'd say the 66/33 chance split for the LIBS/CONs winning is accurate. Which means, I guess, that the CPC have pretty good odds......I mean, Trump won with those odds lol.
  3. There is a lot of excitement and momentum around the PPC candidates here too, it's very odd. I have no idea if they'll be able to pinch off a few % of the vote tomorrow or not. My local PPC candidate has spent too much time protesting vaccine passports outside our hospital to earn my respect, not that I'd ever want to vote for a party with such a disgusting platform.
  4. This is my prediction for the final results come Monday night. LIB: 143 (-14) CON: 130 (+9) NDP: 34 (+10) BQ: 28 (-4) GRN: 2 (-1) PPC: 1 (+1)
  5. And as for what Phillipe Fournier thinks the odds are of each outcome on election night, based on his model.....
  6. The PPC have been polling at some very interestingly high numbers the past 1.5 weeks, with some polls as high as 12% nationally. Regionally, AB, SK/MB, and somehow Atlantic Canada have shown high returns for them in rolling polls. If those numbers hold election day, the PPC will cost the CPC ridings due to vote splitting. Looking at urban Alberta ridings as example, where the Liberals or NDP could benefit the most from some vote-splitting. But yeah, much like the 2019 election, the regional polling is strong for the Liberals in Ontario, who are somewhere between +5 and +9 over the CPC. The CPC can't win this election without picking up seats in Ontario, and being that far behind the Liberals makes that impossible. The only saving grace for the CPC is that the Liberals are polling very poorly in BC, and the Bloc could also play spoiler in QC. Who the heck knows what's happening in Atlantic Canada, since polling here has been all over the place since the election began.
  7. Regional polling in Ontario and Quebec have swung in their favour the past week of the election. Despite the LPC and CPC being tied in popular vote nation-wide, the advantage the Liberals have in ON and QC put them in good position to win the most seats.
  8. Sort of fallen behind on the election but I'll be doing a deep dive on the polls this weekend. By the way things look, at least from what I've seen earlier, the Liberals are favoured to win this election, and are close to a majority. But the polling error between a strong minority and a CPC minority is very minor.
  9. Vote with your heart. If that means a vote for the NDP of Greens, then so be it. I think the worst thing we can do is vote for our respective parties even when we are displeased and/or upset with them, as it just validates to them what they've done for the past term. If you think Trudeau is crap then don't vote for his party, make the Liberals make a leadership change. Look no further to south of the border to see how blindly voting the party line works for them. I too am very displeased with the Liberals. I saw a great analysis last week regarding Trudeau's time in office. It went something like this... "in 2015, people were inspired by Trudeau. In 2019, people were disappointed in Trudeau. In 2021, people are finished with Trudeau". At the end of the day, it just feels like we're being promised the same stuff over and over again. Sure, the COVID response was good, but government is so much more than that. I'm leaning towards voting Conservative for the first time since the 2008 election. I do worry about the more extreme members of the party, however I know things like abortion and gay marriage aren't topics that will be re-opened ever again. That being said, living in an urban riding like St. John's East, the CPC have no shot of winning the seat anyway, which will likely either be picked up by the Liberals or barely held by the NDP.
  10. The Liberals vote efficiency is still pretty good though. Even with polls showing the Conservatives a few points ahead, the Liberals win the election under these projections. With still a virtual tie in Ontario, along with the Liberals with a healthy lead in Quebec, that makes them very difficult to beat. That being said, regionals in both Atlantic Canada and BC are very favourable for the Cons right now, which certainly helps negate some of the above mentioned problems for them.
  11. BQ appear to be down and bleeding support to the Liberals, so that's at least a bit of a relief for the Liberals despite polling still trending in the wrong direction in Ontario. To make things even more interesting, the Nanos daily tracker have a LIB/CON tie in Atlantic Canada, where the Mainstreet tracker showed the same results a few days ago. We could know very early on in the night if the Liberals are in trouble. EDIT: Add EKOS to the list of rolling polls with the Cons and Libs tied in Atlantic Canada.
  12. Top line polling numbers won't matter as much as the regional polling in Ontario, which as of right now appears to be a dead heat. It'll be interesting to see how things play out there in the coming weeks since, as always, the election will be won or lost in the 905.
  13. For what it's worth, we've been laughing for about five years now. The Afghanistan disaster is just next on the list. I'd laugh more, but my country is just as guilty for wasting money in Afghanistan just to make things worse over there.
  14. ^ Indeed quite the surprise. Looks like federal polling is showing a tightening between the Liberals and Conservatives, and also showing a strong NDP. Maybe this election might be interesting after all.
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