Which round is most important in determining a season's frontrunners/winners?

[Bouli]

Discuss! :D

 

(BTW, I purposely omitted the Battles, mostly because of the number of montages and the fact that a bad opponent can make it harder for a frontrunner to shine.)

 

My opinion: the Knockouts are the most important round. I think there were a solid 4 seasons in a row, arguably 5, when at least one frontrunner pulled away from the rest of the pack specifically because they had a great Knockout performance. 12 had Chris Blue, Hunter Plake, Brennley Brown, and Lauren Duski; 13 had Chloe Kohanski; 14 had Brynn Cartelli and Kyla Jade; 15 had Chevel Shepherd, Kirk Jay, and Chris Kroeze. I'd make an argument for 16 because even though they were replaced by the Cross Battles, Maelyn Jarmon set herself apart from everyone else here, mostly because everyone else that season struggled with the Cross Battles. (For this season [17], I think you could argue that Rose Short and Jake Hoot did the same, putting themselves on everyone's radars when they weren't there before because of great Knockout performances.)

 

It also helps that the Knockouts are the last rounds before the live shows, so a person formerly thought to be a frontrunner can't have a "surprise" non-live elimination like Brennan Lassiter after the Knockouts are over. (It also helps that the producers can still tweak the Knockouts to favor their Chosen Ones, since they aren't live.)

 

I'd say either the Blind Auditions or the Finale would be the second most important round. I think there's an argument to make for either one. I'd argue the Blinds because they're the first round, and viewership is usually at its highest at the start of the season and all that - although there can be surprise eliminations of Blind favorites in the Battles or Knockouts. However, this is where you can really start to form an early loyal fan base, proven particularly well this season with Katie Kadan. But I'd also argue the Finale because if you squander your opportunity or you're bussed, you lose all chances at victory. (Just ask Matt McAndrew and Kyla Jade.) But sometimes I wonder how much it really matters to do exceptionally well here, since your number of fans and aggregate vote from iTunes and previous rounds is already set in stone by this point.

 

Whew, got all those thoughts out! What are your opinions? Which round is the most important for a contestant to ace?

 

Oh, and how about least important?

[FlavorfulFifi]

I have to agree. KOs

[+Naira]

I agree about the #1.

The 2nd most important is maybe a tie between the blinds and the semis.

 

Your posts are always interesting and well thought-out.

[TeamAudra]

1. KO for all of the reasons mentioned. They can literally win the show in the KO round.

 

2. They can also win the show with a great blind (Sawyer, Alisan, Jordan). It just doesn’t happen quite as often. Contestants frequently flame out after great blind auditions.

 

3. Playoffs.

 

4. Top 11

 

5. Top 10

 

6. Top 13

 

I think the results are mostly baked into the cake by the time they reach the semi-finals and the finale.

[Bouli]

I agree about the #1.

The 2nd most important is maybe a tie between the blinds and the semis.

 

Your posts are always interesting and well thought-out.

Hey, thanks a bunch! I just like analyzing the daylights out of this show. And now that finals are over, I have way too much time on my hands to think about too much stuff.

[echoap]

Agree, the autotuned rounds are very important. The knockouts in particular are usually game-changing.

 

If there's any doubt about the winner, the first live shows: Playoffs, top 13 and top 11 fit the bill as well. After that the rest is a mere formality.

[+Naira]

Agree, the autotuned rounds are very important. The knockouts in particular are usually game-changing.

 

If there's any doubt about the winner, the first live shows: Playoffs, top 13 and top 11 fit the bill as well. After that the rest is a mere formality.

The live episodes are so few now that I think the semis are more important than they used to be for casuals to find out who makes the finals. (not talking about the show stans, they've picked their snowflakes since the blinds for the most part. )

 

But if you're talking about frontrunners, yeah, they're determined earlier.

[Bouli]

1. KO for all of the reasons mentioned. They can literally win the show in the KO round.

 

2. They can also win the show with a great blind (Sawyer, Alisan, Jordan). It just doesn’t happen quite as often. Contestants frequently flame out after great blind auditions.

 

3. Playoffs.

 

I think the results are mostly baked into the cake by the time they reach the semi-finals and the finale.

I agree with all of your post, but especially with your placement of Playoffs at #3, and your disregard of semifinals and finale.

 

I'm not going to edit the original post even though my opinion has changed, but I now agree that semifinals and finale are not too important because your momentum is probably already set in stone by then. Some seasons, the finale just feels like a big ole celebration of the top vote-getters for that season. I would say semis are relatively more important than the finale, though.

 

Playoffs (ESPECIALLY LIVE) are crucial because someone can lose their momentum by being boring/unremarkable/bad in the first live shows. Or they can further set themselves apart from the pack by sounding phenomenal when they no longer have AutoTune/production as a direct crutch. Some examples:

• In 12, Chris Blue and Vanessa Ferguson both set themselves apart in the Playoffs. Chris just widened the gap between himself vs. the others, but I don't even think Vanessa was the "favorite" to win the second popular vote there - until she gave a phenomenal Playoffs performance.
• 14 was probably the biggest example of this, especially for the Knockouts frontrunners Brynn Cartelli and Kyla Jade, who further set themselves apart by having decent performances when most people were pretty weak on the first night of playoffs.
• Season 14 also showed that you could pull off a mini-upset and steal a spot in the Top 12/13 by performing exceptionally better than everyone else when no one expects you to, even if you can't pick up fans after that and end up in the bottom from there on out. For more information, see: Rayshun LaMarr, and Sharane Calister.
• Last point on Season 14. If Playoffs weren't important to the contestants, then you wouldn't have iconic moments like Austin Giorgio's hardcore selling out, or Gary Edwards singing "America the Beautiful" to try to win the pander vote.
• I'd also argue 16's Cross Battles were as important as a regular Playoffs round would have been, since early favorites who crashed and burned here, like Kayslin Victoria, Julian King, and Selkii, destroyed their chances at winning due to tragic performances.
• For 15, I think Kirk Jay lost quite a bit of his momentum when his Playoffs performance was weak, because he sounded significantly better in the AutoTuned rounds. (I can at least speak to my own household; my dad was in love with the guy until he opened his mouth during the Playoffs. Needless to say, their relationship was rocky from there on out )

[Archanium]

Blinds - Well, if you don't ace this round, you wouldn't be in . And giving 4-chair turn worth of performance usually put the contestants to front runner status instantly.

[+Naira]

Blinds - Well, if you don't ace this round, you wouldn't be in . And giving 4-chair turn worth of performance usually put the contestants to front runner status instantly.

Speaking of 4-chair turns, not sure if this is unusual, but this season is interesting:

 

Katie-top 4

Ricky-top 4

 

Brennan -- Eliminated in the Battle rounds

Mendeleyev-Eliminated in the Battle rounds

Preston-Eliminated in the Knockout rounds

Khalea-Eliminated in the Live Playoffs

Shane-Eliminated in the Top 10

Marybeth-Eliminated in the semis

 

The rest of the top 4:

Rose 2 chairs

Jake 1 chair (still highly suspicious, still convinced it was setup to make sure Jake had to pick Kelly...)

[TeamAudra]

Speaking of KO, and S15....that situation flew under the radar. In the rehearsal package, Chevel talked about how she and her mom used to sing “Travelin’ Soldier” while her brother was in the army, and she backed that up with a strong performance. That segment was very well produced too. As we speak, it has 26 million views on Facebook, which is unheard of for a KO. I think she effectively swiped most of the traditional country vote that night, and built on that in the PO. From that point, TPTB just accepted it, and worked to try to line up finale spots for the other coaches’ TCOs, which proved to be challenging.

[Archanium]

Speaking of 4-chair turns, not sure if this is unusual, but this season is interesting:

 

Katie-top 4

Ricky-top 4

 

Brennan -- Eliminated in the Battle rounds

Mendeleyev-Eliminated in the Battle rounds

Preston-Eliminated in the Knockout rounds

Khalea-Eliminated in the Live Playoffs

Shane-Eliminated in the Top 10

Marybeth-Eliminated in the semis

 

The rest of the top 4:

Rose 2 chairs

Jake 1 chair (still highly suspicious, still convinced it was setup to make sure Jake had to pick Kelly...)

 

If the 4-chair turners were distributed more evenly among the coaches, more of them would've made it to the lives.

[+Naira]

If the 4-chair turners were distributed more evenly among the coaches, more of them would've made it to the lives.

And somehow 3 of them weren't stolen before the lives.

 

[echoap]

Jake 1 chair (still highly suspicious, still convinced it was setup to make sure Jake had to pick Kelly...)

Imagine the Hoot in Blake's hands... :fear:

 

TPTB knew damn well what they were doing. It is no accident that this season's Team Blake is one of the weakest ever (vote-wise, I'm not necessarily speaking about talent).

[QueenKalie]

And somehow 3 of them weren't stolen before the lives.

 

Brennan

[Archanium]

And somehow 3 of them weren't stolen before the lives.

 

After knowing how the coaches used their steals/saves in the live cross battle last season, I can see why they didn't get stolen. :teehee:

 

Imagine the Hoot in Blake's hands... :fear:

 

Then I can imagine him out before lives just like Cory, Zach, and Jordan.

 

Edited December 14, 2019 by Archanium

[+Naira]

Imagine the Hoot in Blake's hands... :fear:

 

TPTB knew damn well what they were doing. It is no accident that this season's Team Blake is one of the weakest ever (vote-wise, I'm not necessarily speaking about talent).

The result might be the same. Still not convinced Katie's running away with it. They might be tied for all we know.

 

Ricky's the only TB finalists I ever stanned (I preferred Addison over Chloe, and Amanda/Melanie over Cass.) But until top 8, he mostly had non competition-friendly songs--imo anyway--and only really showed his talent as a guitarist starting in the top 10. Which makes me wonder if Blake didn't originally bet on Kat who ended up not catching on with casuals, even though she had very vocal online fans.

 

 

[QueenKalie]

The result might be the same. Still not convinced Katie's running away with it. They might be tied for all we know.

 

Ricky's the only TB finalists I ever stanned (I preferred Addison over Chloe, and Amanda/Melanie over Cass.) But until top 8, he mostly had non competition-friendly songs--imo anyway--and only really showed his talent as a guitarist starting in the top 10. Which makes me wonder if Blake didn't originally bet on Kat who ended up not catching on with casuals, even though she had very vocal online fans.

 

Hard for Kat to catch on when she was bussed pretty much every week. It's kinda remarkable she did as well as she did.

[holinessss]

how'd this turn into a hoot conspiracy theory thread so quickly lolz (which is the dumbest thing i've ever heard), anyways...

 

blinds - especially when leaked, this season out of the 7 leaked auditions 4 made T13 (katie, joana, shane, myracle//rest were preston, zoe, josie)

 

playoffs - first live vote, artists have been narrowed to a more manageable size so the casual audience can start committing to faves and even in cases the coaches committing faves in the form of their coach save

 

i don't think lives do much, for example katie's fans ain't dropping her after lady marmalade or hoot ain't gonna get any more votes after desperado (maybe to both, but not enough to be significant/game-changing)

[echoap]

If the Hoot wins we're going to have to rethink all these theories about Game-changing rounds :icecream:.

[Thoughts and Sounds]

If the Hoot wins we're going to have to rethink all these theories about Game-changing rounds :icecream:.

 

Maybe it just confirms it :whistling:

 

Katie's worst round was probably her knockout, and the same rules obv don't apply to the WGWG country-types

 

So if Katie doesn't win, we can all blame her knockout :devil:

[echoap]

Maybe it just confirms it :whistling:

 

Katie's worst round was probably her knockout, and the same rules obv don't apply to the WGWG country-types

 

So if Katie doesn't win, we can all blame her knockout :devil:

Perhaps you are right. Also, The Hoot just had a "Total Eclipse of The Heart" moment this week; but still, him winning would be the most shocking thing since the Blue incident during season 12. And I'm all for it :devil:

[+Naira]

Perhaps you are right. Also, The Hoot just had a "Total Eclipse of The Heart" moment this week; but still, him winning would be the most shocking thing since the Blue incident during season 12. And I'm all for it :devil:

LOL. This probably belongs in the unpop thread, but after Jake's Desperado it's all the same to me if he ends up winning. Not a fan of either one.

[ATX29]

Knockouts and Top 11 week are the ones that immediately come to mind for me.

 

I think Katie won this season in T11 week the same way Chloe did in her season.

[joe14]

I would honestly say blinds. I don't think knockouts are as important as people are making them seem. At least not for winners. Front runners maybe. I just don't think you can bomb in the knockouts and then go on to do well. Your performance just has to be passable.

 

Chloe is the only winner who I would argue won with their knockout. Majority had it from the blinds I think. The knockouts can help establish other front runners though.