Top 10 Prediction (By Stats)

[Sept390]

So I pulled data from several sources to determine the popularity of our top 20 based on the performances last night. These include:

 

1. Youtube Views 
2. Talent Recap Youtube Views
3. Facebook Video Views
4. Facebook Engagements (Like, Share, Comment) (1 like = 1 point, 1 comment = 5 points, 1 share = 10 points).
5. Mjsbigblog Poll
6. WNTS scores
7. IG likes
8. IG followers gained

 

Then I rank them based on percentages in each metric. An example of FB video views:

 

 

Arthur got 937k views = 19% of all video views. Just Sam got 511k views (10% of all views)

 

Each metric would then be weighed differently based on how likely it is to indicate public sentiments and how much it correlates with other metrics.

 

Final popularity score

 

1. Arthur Gunn: 19.04

2. Just Sam: 9.80

3. Francisco Martin: 8.64

4. Jonny West: 6.86

5. Dillon James: 5.91

6. Louis Knight: 5.36

7. Lauren Spencer-Smith: 5.33

8. Sophia James: 4.01

9. Julia Gargano: 3.89

10. Makayla Phillips: 3.82

11. Jovin Webb: 3.46

12. Kimmy Gabriela: 3.13

13. Franklin Boone: 3.10

14. Grace Leer: 3.08

15. Olivia Ximines: 2.92

16. Aliana Jester: 2.73

17. Nick Merico: 2.31

18. Cyniah Elise: 2.24

19. DeWayne Crocker Jr: 2.16

20. Faith Becnel: 1.95

 

 

Arthur, Sam & Francisco are locked. They are so ahead of the others.

Jonny, Dillon & Louis have great chances to make it

Lauren has a nice lead over the rest but I'm not confident as she's from Canada.

It will be a battle between Lauren, Sophia, Julia, Makayla, Kimmy, Franklin, Jovin (surprised!) and Grace for the last 4 spots. They are pretty close

Aliana, Olivia, Nick, Cyniah, Dewayne and Faith are totally gone

 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by Sept390

[Cranberrys]

Just Sam is going to win.

[kenboy123]

Honestly, online views and twitter and whatnot are only a small sample of the voting population...just because some fans are the most "LOUD" doesn't mean they are the ones with the fanbase with the most voters...Maddie Poppe wasn't exactly smashing in it stats wise in her season....Catie and Gabby hogged up most of the internet coverage...but Catie only made the Top 6 (or 7)...and Gabby came in 3rd...Caleb wasn't even registering in the online community, but he ended up 2nd because country is powerful... so, I expect Grace to get a lot of votes...and I wouldn't take things in online fans and YouTube views so seriously...

Edited April 27, 2020 by kenboy123

[Sept390]

3 minutes ago, kenboy123 said:

Honestly, online views and twitter and whatnot are only a small sample of the voting population...just because some fans are the most "LOUD" doesn't mean they are the ones with the fanbase with the most voters...Maddie Poppe wasn't exactly smashing in it stats wise in her season....Catie and Gabby hogged up most of the internet coverage...but Catie only made the Top 6 (or 7)...and Gabby came in 3rd...Caleb wasn't even registering in the online community, but he ended up 2nd because country is powerful... so, I expect Grace to get a lot of votes...and I wouldn't take things in online fans and YouTube views so seriously...

 

Maddie's season did not have a brutal cut like this season. That's why popularity matters. Maddie delivered stellar & consistent performances every single time so her stats went up through each round. Caleb used to have one of the biggest fb video views and engagements if i remember correctly. 

 

AAnyway, we can wait and see. I wouldn't count Grace out but people were not thrilled of her performance last night.   

[kenboy123]

1 hour ago, Sept390 said:

 

Maddie's season did not have a brutal cut like this season. That's why popularity matters. Maddie delivered stellar & consistent performances every single time so her stats went up through each round. Caleb used to have one of the biggest fb video views and engagements if i remember correctly. 

 

AAnyway, we can wait and see. I wouldn't count Grace out but people were not thrilled of her performance last night.   

 

My main point is that online viewers and social media hits and whatnot aren't exactly representative of the actual people that actually vote for these shows...Country music usually doesn't get a high amount of views for example in American Idol and The Voice, but...we all know that vote is powerful and usually can get contestants deep or into the finale...I'm not saying Grace is going to be there, but ... i wouldn't put too much stock in what the online public think...i'm willing to bet that people like Arthur and Sam are safe, but...they might not actually be getting the highest number of votes as people seem to think...

Edited April 27, 2020 by kenboy123

[CarmenSandiego]

7 hours ago, Cranberrys said:

Just Sam is going to win.

I sure hope so.  She’s my favorite.  My mom’s favorite too.

Edited April 28, 2020 by CarmenSandiego

[Cranberrys]

7 hours ago, Sept390 said:

 

Maddie's season did not have a brutal cut like this season. That's why popularity matters. Maddie delivered stellar & consistent performances every single time so her stats went up through each round. Caleb used to have one of the biggest fb video views and engagements if i remember correctly. 

 

AAnyway, we can wait and see. I wouldn't count Grace out but people were not thrilled of her performance last night.   

Maddie was, by far, the best singer on her season of Idol.  But Maddie isn't a "great" singer.  She's good but her vocals alone aren't strong enough to make her a star the way Jennifer Hudson's voice alone made her a star.  For Maddie it's going to take a "great" song - and no one is going to give it to her now that she's disappeared from the spotlight.  If Maddie makes it - and it's a very long shot that she makes it now - she'll have to write a great song for herself.  If she could she would have already done it.

 

IMO - the only singer with a chance for mainstream success this season is Just Sam.  She's popular now with mainstream viewers.  It would only take a lil push from the Hop Hop community for Just Sam to make a splash.  But - Hip Hop hates singing competitions.  Sadly, that's probably the end of her story.

Edited April 28, 2020 by Cranberrys

[Sept390]

6 hours ago, Cranberrys said:

Maddie was, by far, the best singer on her season of Idol.  But Maddie isn't a "great" singer.  She's good but her vocals alone aren't strong enough to make her a star the way Jennifer Hudson's voice alone made her a star.  For Maddie it's going to take a "great" song - and no one is going to give it to her now that she's disappeared from the spotlight.  If Maddie makes it - and it's a very long shot that she makes it now - she'll have to write a great song for herself.  If she could she would have already done it.

 

IMO - the only singer with a chance for mainstream success this season is Just Sam.  She's popular now with mainstream viewers.  It would only take a lil push from the Hop Hop community for Just Sam to make a splash.  But - Hip Hop hates singing competitions.  Sadly, that's probably the end of her story.

 

I was talking about the competition. She was stellar in her season

[psterina]

7 hours ago, Sept390 said:

 

I was talking about the competition. She was stellar in her season

 

Yes. Maddie's idol run, was flawless, and masterful 

[CarmenSandiego]

4 hours ago, psterina said:

 

Yes. Maddie's idol run, was flawless, and masterful 

That’s because she knew who she was as an artist and chose her songs very wisely.  None of her songs were really predictable, unlike those of Caleb Lee Hutchinson.

[psterina]

15 minutes ago, CarmenSandiego said:

That’s because she knew who she was as an artist and chose her songs very wisely.  None of her songs were really predictable, unlike those of Caleb Lee Hutchinson.

 

[haribobo]

I did a similar thing with rankings from 1) idolforums top 20 ranked thread (used 9 of the rankings), 2) Talent Recap youtube views, 3) Idol youtube views, 4) mjs poll (favorite performance category), and 5) tvline poll

 

For the video views I just did them amongst the others in top 12 (exclusing 13-20th people) since they changed over the last couple days...listed are the placements in above categories respectively...

 

Here were the top 12, pretty far away from 13-20...

 

Francisco 1, 2, 2, 2, 4 = 11

Arthur 8, 1, 1, 3, 2= 15

Sam 3, 3, 4, 7, 1 = 18

Jonny 1, 8, 3, 1, 3 =  25

Makayla 6, 6, 8, 8 ,7= 35

Dillon 14, 4, 10, 4, 5= 37

Kimmy 5, 11, 5, 13, 14= 38

Julia 11, 9, 6, 5, 8= 39

Lauren 7, 7, 9, 6, 11= 40

Sophia 12, 5, 11, 9, 6 = 43

Grace 2, 12, 12, 11, 12= 49

Louis 18, 10, 7, 10, 9 = 54

Edited April 28, 2020 by haribobo

[BrokenHearted]

That would be almost my ideal top 10, I'd just swap Arthur for Kimmy (never gonna happen lmao)

[wgm]

Grace sang that song better than Faith Hill, that's my first point. Secondly, you are underestimating the fans of country music. Grace is in the top 10.

[Blirel]

Quick question... whose going to be the Wade Cota of the season whee no one can figure out how he made Top 14 yet he makes it to Top 6? With a shorter season this would be the equivalent of one shocking person making the top 10. 

[Sept390]

3 hours ago, Blirel said:

Quick question... whose going to be the Wade Cota of the season whee no one can figure out how he made Top 14 yet he makes it to Top 6? With a shorter season this would be the equivalent of one shocking person making the top 10. 

 

Jovin. He's 11 on my list and not far off from #10 (Makayla)

[redwood79]

ahhhh i really hope Kimmy makes it but I have a feeling she'll be right below the Top 10 cutoff point 

[CarmenSandiego]

3 hours ago, Blirel said:

Quick question... whose going to be the Wade Cota of the season whee no one can figure out how he made Top 14 yet he makes it to Top 6? With a shorter season this would be the equivalent of one shocking person making the top 10. 

Jovin or Kimmy.  They’re both the closest to the Top 10 after Makayla in Sept390’s collection of stats.

[Elliott]

On 4/28/2020 at 3:38 PM, CarmenSandiego said:

None of her songs were really predictable, unlike those of Caleb Lee Hutchinson.

Literally everyone and their mother saw her doing Nothing Compares 2 U. And I don't see why we're bringing Caleb in the conversation when he wasn't mentioned.  

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by Elliott

[Elliott]

On 4/27/2020 at 9:41 PM, Cranberrys said:

IMO - the only singer with a chance for mainstream success this season is Just Sam.  She's popular now with mainstream viewers.  It would only take a lil push from the Hop Hop community for Just Sam to make a splash.  But - Hip Hop hates singing competitions.  Sadly, that's probably the end of her story.

That's not going to happen to anyone from Idol in 2020, and hasn't happened to anyone from Idol in years.

[Elliott]

11 hours ago, wgm said:

Grace sang that song better than Faith Hill, that's my first point.

[redwood79]

55 minutes ago, Elliott said:

 

^^

[CarmenSandiego]

1 hour ago, Elliott said:

Literally everyone and their mother saw her doing Nothing Compares 2 U. And I don't see why we're bringing Caleb in the conversation when he wasn't mentioned.  

 

Oops.  I didn’t realize that “Nothing Compares 2 U” might have been predictable.  But even with that song, she wasn’t boring.

 

 I brought Caleb into the conversation because earlier, Sept390 mentioned that he had one of the biggest Facebook videos views and engagements, although he (or she) could really have meant Gabby.  And because Caleb is the perfect example of contestants doing songs that more often than not, were predictable, boring or both.

[Elliott]

28 minutes ago, CarmenSandiego said:

But even with that song, she wasn’t boring. [..] And because Caleb is the perfect example of contestants doing songs that more often than not, were predictable, boring or both.

 

 I brought Caleb into the conversation because earlier, Sept390 mentioned that he had one of the biggest Facebook videos views and engagements, although he (or she) could really have meant Gabby.

In your opinion. I personally found her performance of Nothing Compares 2 U insanely boring. Generally speaking, I preferred Maddie's uptempo numbers to her slower songs. On the flip side, I wasn't bored by most of what Caleb turned in, and looking at the songs he sang, I'd say Amazed and Folsom Prison Blues were the only ones that were, on paper, predictable. (Well, maybe the Carrie song, but I'm not that familiar with her discography outside of the singles, so I don't know what would've been a good fit for anyone, really.)

 

Because he did? Caleb and Gabby were leading the FB views and engagements because they were the most inline with what the FB crowd tends to go after. It's why Laine did so well last year on FB, too, even though Alejandro was supposedly the next big social media star. Pointing out that other people had higher numbers than Maddie isn't a slight on Maddie.  It's just pointing out who's polling well on what site.

Edited April 30, 2020 by Elliott

[CarmenSandiego]

14 minutes ago, Elliott said:

In your opinion. I personally found her performance of Nothing Compares 2 U insanely boring. Generally speaking, I preferred Maddie's uptempo numbers to her slower songs. On the flip side, I wasn't bored by most of what Caleb turned in, and looking at the songs he sang, I'd say Amazed and Folsom Prison Blues were the only ones that were, on paper, predictable. (Well, maybe the Carrie song, but I'm not that familiar with her discography outside of the singles, so I don't know what would've been a good fit for anyone, really.)

 

Because he did? Caleb and Gabby were leading the FB views and engagements because they were the most inline with what the FB crowd tends to go after. It's why Laine did so well last year on FB, too, even though Alejandro was supposedly the next big social media star. Pointing out that other people had higher numbers than Maddie isn't a slight on Maddie.  It's just pointing out who's polling well on what site.

Are you a fan of country music?  I’m not really much of one.  Maybe that’s why you weren’t bored by Caleb’s songs and I was.  And actually, until Cade was gone, I was more annoyed with him and his singing — reminded me too much of Adam Lambert and I hated Adam’s singing — than bored by Caleb’s.