The American Politics Thread!

[TeamAudra]

1 hour ago, RTV said:

54 House Republicans signed today's letter urging Biden "to submit to a cognitive test immediately"

(Similar letters were sent to Biden in February 2022 with 37 co-signers and in June 2021 with 13 co-signers.)

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/more-than-50-republicans-call-biden-take-cognitive-test-dem-concerns-about-presidents-age

Only 54??????

[RTV]

51 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

Only 54??????

At least it's up from 13 and 37? 

[RTV]

https://hankjohnson.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/rep-johnson-introduces-supreme-court-justice-term-limit-measure-restore#

 

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) is introducing a similar bill in the Senate.

 

A Supreme Court justice is currently appointed to the bench for life, abiding by the "Good Behavior Clause" in the Constitution.

[TeamAudra]

I don’t usually watch entire press conferences, but I learned a lot about the woke ESG agenda from this. It is well worth your time, IMO. Florida has enacted a series of laws to combat this, and plans to get several other states onboard as well. This is very important!

 

 

[Gmm99]

Oh boy.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/27/politics/schumer-manchin-deal-build-back-better/index.html

[Gmm99]

Thoughts on this? MorningConsult's poll today shows Independent voters soaring for Democrats.

 

 

[TeamAudra]

11 minutes ago, Gmm99 said:

Thoughts on this? MorningConsult's poll today shows Independent voters soaring for Democrats.

 

 

It’s only one poll, but it’s possible, I guess? Speculation of Trump running again may have an effect. 

[RTV]

48 minutes ago, Gmm99 said:

Thoughts on this? MorningConsult's poll today shows Independent voters soaring for Democrats.

 

 

from the article:

 

Since May, Biden’s favorability rating has dropped among independents, and his job approval rating with unaffiliated voters (27%) is worse than it has ever been in 66 surveys conducted since he took office.

 

That disconnect suggests independent voters may view November’s contests as less of a referendum and more of a choice between two parties. That would benefit Democrats, provided they can define their races on those favorable terms.

 

On the campaign trail, Democrats have already spent millions to help candidates in Republican primaries closely aligned with Trump’s movement in hopes of capitalizing on ill will against the former president, and the Jan. 6 committee is preparing to inject itself into the national conversation with more hearings in September, when voters are traditionally more likely to be attuned to the political debate.

 

While the panel’s public work didn’t happen in a vacuum (it came in the same time period that the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision that had protected abortion rights nationwide for nearly 50 years), recent data trends suggest the Jan. 6 hearings may have thrown a wrench into Republican efforts to take back the House and Senate this fall.

Edited July 28, 2022 by RTV

[RTV]

https://thepostmillennial.com/breaking-biden-doj-has-opened-a-criminal-investigation-into-trump-for-jan-6-actions

[RTV]

https://thepostmillennial.com/manchin-gives-in-to-schumer-agrees-to-reduced-plan-for-climate-change-new-taxes

[TeamAudra]

Trump to sue CNN. 

 

https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/27/trump-to-sue-cnn/

[RTV]

12 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

Trump to sue CNN. 

 

https://dailycaller.com/2022/07/27/trump-to-sue-cnn/

“In this instance, President Trump’s comments are not lies: He subjectively believes that the results of the 2020 presidential election turned on fraudulent voting activity in several key states,” the document said.

 

The 282-page letter lists 34 examples of publications that should be corrected, which include CNN articles and transcriptions of broadcasts. Among these is an article regarding Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony in front of the January 6 subcommittee.

Edited July 28, 2022 by RTV

[RTV]

https://thepostmillennial.com/world-economic-forum-calls-for-an-end-to-owning-private-vehicles

[TeamAudra]

8 minutes ago, RTV said:

“In this instance, President Trump’s comments are not lies: He subjectively believes that the results of the 2020 presidential election turned on fraudulent voting activity in several key states,” the document said.

 

The 282-page letter lists 34 examples of publications that should be corrected, which include CNN articles and transcriptions of broadcasts. Among these is an article regarding Cassidy Hutchinson's testimony in front of the January 6 subcommittee.

CNN lies all the time about Republicans, but he isn’t going to win this lawsuit. 

Edited July 28, 2022 by TeamAudra

[TeamAudra]

 

[TeamAudra]

 

 

[RTV]

3 hours ago, TeamAudra said:

 

 

quote from the article that sums up the problem with this idea:

Historically, third parties have failed to thrive in America's two-party system. Occasionally they can impact a presidential election.

[RTV]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrats-hold-slight-edge-gop-abortion-more-important-voters-inflation-poll-shows

[RTV]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-xi-jinping-nancy-pelosi-taiwan-f500d38f7ac98a191fe6ad817b528929

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-looks-tamp-down-taiwan-tension-during-china-xi-call-2022-07-28

 

[Gmm99]

Found this article on the electoral college...this is going to get ugly.

Democrats Close To Changing Laws On Popular Vote (thefederalist.com)

 

A notable quote:

 

"

The commonly heard sentiment during election cycles is “every vote matters.” However, what is not fair is that if the president is elected based on a plurality, then the minority would not have a chance of having their candidate elected. Only the concerns and interests of more heavily populated areas, such as the East and West coast cities, would be represented. Interests of the minority and less populated areas would naturally be set aside and of little interest to future presidential candidates. Worse, the executive would be beholden and accountable solely to the majority.

 

This condition was not the intent of our founders. Their intent was to ensure that the nation’s highest executive, as well as the executive branch, represented the interests of all Americans regardless of political affiliation. A future president would need to appeal to those concerned about not just national but also regional issues.

Further, the Electoral College provided a means to disburse and decentralize power. State electors are elected just days before and are unknown until just prior to an election to prevent undue influence to stay true to the people’s votes in their states. Our founders framed it so as to prevent collusion and cabalist (their word) behavior, preclude violence, and thwart involvement of foreign powers."

Edited July 28, 2022 by Gmm99

[TeamAudra]

 

[RTV]

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser has requested the activation of the D.C. National Guard in a letter to Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin dated July 19 and a letter to Homeland Security / White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs dated July 22.

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/dc-mayor-requests-national-guard-to-help-with-migrants-bused-to-capital/3118920

I don't understand why people aren't more concerned about our unsecured southern border, which has become a dangerous crisis since President Biden took office. Bowser says over 4,000 migrants on nearly 200 buses have been transported to the nation's capital from Arizona and Texas, but more than 1.2 million encounters have been reported by Border Patrol for January through June of this year.

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters

[TeamAudra]

This is a poll of Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. 
 

 

Since this account supports Trump, they probably won’t say anything about the rest of the poll. So…I’ll just paste it here. 
 

As with any poll, I will take this with a grain of salt, especially since John Bolton is not a Trump fan. Having said that, other pollsters are picking up on the same dynamics with Independents. We just discussed one such poll last night. 
 

Crosstabs and state by state results are at the link in the above tweet. 
 

——

 

New Poll Finds Trump Hurts Republican Chances in Key Senate Race
Independents’ Opposition to Trump Could Give Democrats Outright Senate Control.

Washington D.C. – A new national survey conducted by John Bolton Super PAC of likely voters in four key Senate battleground states (Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania), results indicate that Donald Trump is a significant drag on the general-election prospects of Republican candidates. Independent and undecided voters, whose votes will be critical, perhaps dispositive in November, nationally and in the four swing states, have decidedly unfavorable views of Trump. In all but Georgia, Republican candidates are trailing.  

With Independent voters, Donald Trump is Favorable 38%, Unfavorable 48%, a net negative of minus ten points. Only 12.5% of Republican primary voters identified as ‘Trump Republicans’ and 73% as moderate or conservative.  

Ron DeSantis continues to gain on Trump among prospective 2024 GOP primary voters. Trump has just a 2 point lead (33-31). In all, 67% of 2024 GOP primary voters picked a candidate other than Donald Trump. 

Georgia: Republican Herschel Walker leads Democrat Raphael Warnock by 4 points, 46% to 42%. With Undecided voters in the Georgia Senate race Trump is Favorable 31%, Unfavorable 43%, a negative of minus 11 points. 

Pennsylvania: Republican Mehmet Oz trails by 6 points. With Undecided voters Donald Trump is Favorable 34%, Unfavorable 48%. An obstacle. 

Ohio: Republican J.D. Vance trails Democrat Tim Ryan by six points, 44% to 38%. With Undecided voters in the Ohio Senate race Trump is Favorable 24%, Unfavorable 52%. Another obstacle. 

North Carolina: Republican Ted Budd trails Democrat Cheri Beasley by 3 points, 43% to 40%. With Undecided voters in the North Carolina Senate race Trump is Favorable 33%, Unfavorable 33%. 

Characterizing the survey’s results, Ambassador John Bolton said: 

“These results do not mean Republican candidates should not campaign as true conservatives, only that they stress their loyalty to principles. We can still win these races, but the candidates need to separate themselves from Trump. Whatever Trump’s role in the nominating process, his role in the coming general elections can be fatal to GOP efforts to gain outright control of the Senate.”  

“Trump’s fixation on himself and the 2020 election are poisonous to independent and undecided voters. Republican candidates who hope to win in November are risking political suicide if they stress their closeness to Trump, or allow their opponents to portray them as mini-Trumps.” 

Other Key findings from the poll include: 
 

• The poll also found that 60.4% believe that a new Republican candidate, “a fresh face,” would be more likely to defeat Biden in the 2024 presidential election, while 22.9% disagree.
• On the critical question of whether Vice President Mike Pence acted correctly or incorrectly on January 6, 2021, regarding the counting of Electoral College votes, 66.3% sided with Pence, while only 14.7% sided with Trump. Of those surveyed, 81% believe that Biden is legally President of the United States, while 13% disagree.
• Americans are equally divided over whether Trump should be prosecuted for the January 6 Capitol riot (45.9% yes, 45.5% no), while 49.5% believe that Trump incited the crowd to storm the Capitol, and 39.8% disagree.
• Among Republicans asked how they describe themselves, 45.1% said they were “conservatives”; 27.7% said they were “moderates”; and only 12.5% said they were “Trump Republicans.” The rest were undecided or did not answer.
• Asked who they would support for President in a primary held today, 33.3% said Trump, 30.7% said DeSantis, and all the rest were in single digits.

These findings are based on a survey conducted on behalf of John Bolton Super PAC of likely general election voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia was taken between July 22-24, 2022. We polled 1200 voters, 300 voters in each state. Political veteran Carter Wrenn helped analyze the results. The survey of general election voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.8% at a 95% confidence interval. 

Through his PAC, SuperPAC and Foundation, Ambassador John Bolton defends America by raising the importance of national security in public discourse and supporting candidates who believe in strong national security policies. Ambassador Bolton has worked hard to restore conservative leadership, which must reverse the recent policies of drift, decline and defeat. America must rise to the occasion and acknowledge the indispensable role we play in the world. Through 2020, Ambassador Bolton’s endorsed over 200 candidates and raised nearly $20 million for his organizations. 

Edited July 29, 2022 by TeamAudra

[RTV]

According to Bloomberg on July 27:
Two political forecasting models delivered the perfect assessment of state of the 2022 midterm contests on Tuesday. In the morning, the Decision Desk model for Senate elections tipped in favor of Republicans capturing a majority in that chamber. Later in the day, the FiveThirtyEight model tipped in the opposite direction for the first time, giving Democrats a tiny edge. Why is that perfect? Because economic performance metrics and political indicators are throwing up a mess of contradictory signals, making any analysis of what's going to happen, or even what's happening now, unusually difficult.

 

https://rollcall.com/2022/07/18/confused-about-2022-you-should-be

Edited July 29, 2022 by RTV

[RTV]

It's a little surprising that Democrats are suddenly polling higher than Republicans, despite Biden's consistently low approval rating. Gas prices dropping probably helped.

 

from Newsweek today:

Four national polls from the past week have shown Democrats favored by more voters to control Congress compared to Republicans. Democrats control both legislative chambers with slim majorities. Despite the grim expectations for Democrats, four separate polls published since last Friday have shown them with more support than Republicans among voters.

 

The Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Civility Poll conducted by Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group and published Thursday showed Democrats narrowly ahead of Republicans in a generic congressional ballot by 2 points. The liberal party was backed by 48 percent of voters compared to 46 percent who supported the conservative party.

 

Another poll conducted by USA Today/Suffolk University from July 22 to 25 showed Democrats 4 points ahead. That survey had Democrats backed by 44 percent of registered voters compared to 40 percent who supported Republicans. Notably, the same poll carried out in mid-June showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 40 percent—meaning Democrats have gained 4 points.

 

Survey results from The Economist/YouGov from July 23 to 26 had Democrats 6 points ahead of Republicans. That poll showed the liberal party with 44 percent of support compared to 38 percent backing the conservative party. Again, that marked a shift in favor of Democrats. Earlier in July, the results were 43 percent for Democrats and 40 percent for Republicans, meaning Democrats gained 3 points.

 

Polling by Politico/Morning Consult, which was carried out from July 22 to 24, showed Republicans trailing Democrats by 4 points. The liberal party was supported by 45 percent of registered voters and the conservative party had the backing of just 41 percent.

A poll conducted from July 20 to 22 by Trafalgar Group showed dramatically different results, with Republicans leading by 8 points. That survey had the GOP at 48 percent on the generic congressional ballot and Democrats at just 40 percent.

 

Generic congressional ballot polls are an imprecise way to gauge which party is more likely to win in November. The national sentiments captured in these polls do, however, suggest that a larger number of voters appear to favor Democrats over Republicans.

 

When it comes to the Senate, news and polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight's election model late on Tuesday showed that Democrats had a 52 percent chance of keeping the Senate majority, while the Republicans had a 48 percent chance of taking it. This marked the first time the model showed Democrats with an edge ahead of the November midterm. As of Thursday afternoon, the FiveThirtyEight model predicted that Democrats may actually pick up three seats, bringing their total to 53 in the Senate. Republicans are predicted to likely lose three seats, dropping their total down to just 47.

 

Meanwhile, historical precedent is on Republicans' side. In June 2021, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics released an analysis of midterm elections going back to 1946. That report showed that a president in power, on average, loses more than 26 House seats during the midterms. The largest loss has been 64 seats, while the largest gain has been just eight seats. The analysis showed similar results in the Senate. On average, the president's party has lost more than three seats in the Senate during the midterms. The biggest loss has been 13 seats, while the largest gain has been just four seats.