S22 Social Media Thread

[Gustavo527]

4 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

Well, that explains it. I was puzzled by that. Why was it charting?

TikTok

[Gustavo527]

3 hours ago, Hamza Tufail said:

Justin's numbers are good as well (On FB). What do y'all think about his chances at getting the PV?

Like 5%

[TeamAudra]

Twitter mentions. I went through less than half of the tweets, because there are a lot. This should be a good enough sample. What I like about this is it specifically asks for 5 names, so you get 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th choices. 

 

Morgan 70

Bodie 47

Omar 45

Parijita 39

Justin 32

Bryce 30

Kim 21

Brayden 21 
 

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by TeamAudra

[season1]

13 hours ago, season1 said:

Facebook Stats

12/6/22 0700 hours

 

 

VL RATIO

Bryce - 12 VL / 7.3k likes / 89.7k views
Brayden - 13 VL / 4.8k likes / 62k views
Morgan - 15 VL / 7k likes / 105.2k views
Justin - 15 VL / 3.6k likes / 54.8k views

Parijita - 16 VL / 2.6k likes / 40.7k views
Kim - 16 VL / 2.2k likes / 34.2k views
Omar - 17 VL / 5.1k likes / 86k views
bodie - 20 VL / 2.4k likes / 47.1k views

 

 

LIKES
Bryce - 7.3k likes / 89.7k views / 12 VL
Morgan - 7k likes / 105.2k views / 15 VL
Omar - 5.1k likes / 86k views / 17 VL
Brayden - 4.8k likes / 62k views / 13 VL

Justin - 3.6k likes / 54.8k views / 15 VL
Parijita - 2.6k likes / 40.7k views / 16 VL
bodie - 2.4k likes / 47.1k views / 20 VL
Kim - 2.2k likes / 34.2k views / 16 VL

 

 

 

VIEWS

Morgan - 105.2k views / 7k likes / 15 VL
Bryce - 89.7k views / 7.3k likes / 12 VL
Omar - 86k views / 5.1k likes / 17 VL
Brayden - 62k views / 4.8k likes / 13 VL

Justin - 54.8k views / 3.6k likes / 15 VL
bodie - 47.1k views / 2.4k likes / 20 VL
Parijita - 40.7k views / 2.6k likes / 16 VL
Kim - 34.2k views / 2.2k likes / 16 VL

 

 

No changes in ranking. It's interesting to note that the top 4 in FB mentions are also the top 4 in likes and views - Bryce, Morgan, Brayden and Omar.

 

The ratio however has Justin instead of Omar in the Top 4. Omar's ratio is near the bottom. Not as bad as J&S ratio from S21 (they were also in Top 4 in views and reactions).

 

 

EDIT:

Here are S21 FB Stats (h/t FloorWax):

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Reacts

1. Girl Named Tom - 16K
2. Hailey Mia - 15K
3. Wendy Moten - 12K
4. Jim and Sasha Allen - 8.8K
5. Paris Winningham - 8.7K
6. Jershika Maple - 7.3K
7. Lana Scott - 5.2K
8. Joshua Vacanti - 4.9K

 
 

Views:

1. Hailey Mia - 515K
2. Girl Named Tom - 429K
3. Wendy Moten - 399K
4. Jim and Sasha Allen - 356K
5. Lana Scott - 238K
T6. Jershika Maple - 228K
T6. Paris Winningham - 228K
8. Joshua Vacanti - 168K

 

View/React Ratio:

1. Paris Winningham - 26.2
2. Girl Named Tom - 26.8
3. Jershika Maple - 31.2
4. Wendy Moten - 33.3
5. Hailey Mia - 34.3
6. Joshua Vacanti - 34.28
7. Jim and Sasha Allen - 40.5
8. Lana Scott - 45.8
 

 

 

3 of the Top 4 (Bryce, Morgan, Brayden) are in the top 4 of all FB stats.

bodie is in the bottom 4 in stats but his GT is among the top 4 and he's been among the top half of contestants the past couple of weeks. 

 

 

[season1]

19 hours ago, season1 said:

Google Trends average [using these search terms below]

Custom range (two hours before and after EST show)

 

1. Morgan Myles

2. Bryce Leatherwood

3. bodie the voice

4. Brayden Lape

5. Omar Jose Cardona

5. Justin Aaron

7. Parijita Bastola

8. Kim Cruse

 

 

 

Google Trends average (custom range around performance time) is 100% correct in predicting the Top 4.

[Teraginn]

1 minute ago, season1 said:

 

 

Google Trends average (custom range around performance time) is 100% correct in predicting the Top 4.

 

Yep. Morgan, bodie and Bryce stayed on the top half of the trends for 4 weeks. Brayden and Omar kept flip-flopping, but the Team Blake factor may have helped Brayden clinch the PV.

[Teraginn]

5 minutes ago, season1 said:

 

3 of the Top 4 (Bryce, Morgan, Brayden) are in the top 4 of all FB stats.

bodie is in the bottom 4 in stats but his GT is among the top 4 and he's been among the top half of contestants the past couple of weeks. 

 

 

 

I guess bodie's voter base never was on FB. 

[GrammyHeidi]

2 minutes ago, Teraginn said:

 

I guess bodie's voter base never was on FB. 

He is not really active on Facebook. I think it's private.

[Misirlou]

If FB was to be taken literally, Omar would have gotten PV and bodie would have been left to the save. It´s tricky.

[season1]

5 minutes ago, Teraginn said:

 

Yep. Morgan, bodie and Bryce stayed on the top half of the trends for 4 weeks. Brayden and Omar kept flip-flopping, but the Team Blake factor may have helped Brayden clinch the PV.

 

As I mentioned in the previous page(s), even though Omar was in the Top 4 in views and likes on FB, I can't see how he could have more votes than bodie (who was in bottom 4 on FB). I was fairly confident about Bryce and Brayden to advance to the finale (FB and GT composite scores).

 

I think it's always been Team Blake Top 3 every week, and Morgan's closing performance allowed her to pass Omar for the 4th PV.

Edited December 7, 2022 by season1

[season1]

1 minute ago, Misirlou said:

If FB was to be taken literally, Omar would have gotten PV and bodie would have been left to the save. It´s tricky.

 

Current FB captures the mood of its users for that week. If we look at the FB stats for several weeks, Team Blake occupies the top 3 of combined stats.  Before this week, Omar had the 4th spot. Then Morgan outperformed him this week, so she got the PV. The duets may have shown 1-2 and 3-4 pairings, just not sure which pair is 1-2.

[season1]

12 minutes ago, Teraginn said:

 

I guess bodie's voter base never was on FB. 

 

He was among the top on FB mentions in prior weeks, so he has a lot of fans there. This week, he's mid-pack in FB mentions. Many voters vote on overall body of work, not just one night's performance.

[Teraginn]

10 minutes ago, GrammyHeidi said:

He is not really active on Facebook. I think it's private.

 

Good point. The mere question of whether the artist is actually actively promoting music on FB before or during the show may actually influence their FB stats as well. Something to keep in mind in future seasons.

[Teraginn]

11 minutes ago, season1 said:

I think it's always been Team Blake Top 3 every week, and Morgan's closing performance allowed her to pass Omar for the 4th PV.

 

I think the one-two punch of Top 10 and Semis week gave Morgan the advantage she needs to push ahead of Team Blake. I don't think TPTB would have allowed all of Team Blake to be PV'd tonight if they didn't think Morgan/Camila had a chance at winning. I mean, they even tried burying Brayden last night but clearly it didn't work.

[season1]

1 minute ago, Teraginn said:

 

Good point. The mere question of whether the artist is actually actively promoting music on FB before or during the show may actually influence their FB stats as well. Something to keep in mind in future seasons.

 

I don't think that's a factor. Bryce's FB page has not been updated in years yet he's racking up views and likes on that platform (and among the bottom on IG, Twitter and YT). It's actually a great compliment to bodie's talent for FB to support him massively (prior to this week) despite his music not being typical of what the usual FB fan supports.

[Teraginn]

3 minutes ago, season1 said:

 

He was among the top on FB mentions in prior weeks, so he has a lot of fans there. This week, he's mid-pack in FB mentions. Many voters vote on overall body of work, not just one night's performance.

 

Yeah he still has a solid amount of casual support from there. In actuality, it's probably coming from the Team Blakers.

And I agree about overall body of work. This season is short enough that any fans the artists pick up along the way will probably stay with them till the end. And bodie's first three weeks were strong enough to pick up the votes he needed.

[season1]

1 minute ago, Teraginn said:

 

I think the one-two punch of Top 10 and Semis week gave Morgan the advantage she needs to push ahead of Team Blake. I don't think TPTB would have allowed all of Team Blake to be PV'd tonight if they didn't think Morgan/Camila had a chance at winning. I mean, they even tried burying Brayden last night but clearly it didn't work.

 

We don't know who's really ahead in votes; I'm just basing my speculation on the data we have.  Looking at multi-week trends, it seems Morgan's playoff performance was well-received but her support kinda waned in T13 and T10 due to song choice. Her semis helped her bounce back. 

 

Next week is a different ballgame. I expect several busses to be activated to make sure she has the most help to win. Finale is also mostly decided by casuals. So that's where her advantage comes from.

[Teraginn]

3 minutes ago, season1 said:

 

I don't think that's a factor. Bryce's FB page has not been updated in years yet he's racking up views and likes on that platform (and among the bottom on IG, Twitter and YT). It's actually a great compliment to bodie's talent for FB to support him massively (prior to this week) despite his music not being typical of what the usual FB fan supports.

 

Fair enough, but didn't Bryce (and Brayden as well) have private FB groups dedicated to them? 
 

I think what I'm arriving at from all the data gathered so far is that FB is a reflection of the Minivan demo, and the Minivan demo is merely a slice of the pie of the whole Voice voting demo. There are many other places where votes can come from, and those cannot be easily gleaned from social media, at least this season. Not to dismiss the work y'all have put in, but I do find the overreliance on FB stats in this forum to be hilarious yet short-sighted.

[season1]

16 minutes ago, Teraginn said:

 

Fair enough, but didn't Bryce (and Brayden as well) have private FB groups dedicated to them? 
 

I think what I'm arriving at from all the data gathered so far is that FB is a reflection of the Minivan demo, and the Minivan demo is merely a slice of the pie of the whole Voice voting demo. There are many other places where votes can come from, and those cannot be easily gleaned from social media, at least this season. Not to dismiss the work y'all have put in, but I do find the overreliance on FB stats in this forum to be hilarious yet short-sighted.

 

Actually, if anything, most here discount FB stats this season because their snowflake was middling or lagging behind others. But so far this season, FB lined up with the elimination (bottom 3/4 were usually in the bottom half of stats rankings). 

 

Since we lost iTunes as a reliable trend indicator, I looked at FB and GT, snapshots and cumulative data. The composite scoring seems to have predicted the safe contestants.

 

Here's what I got last night based on FB (all weeks) and GT (semis). It lines up with tonight's results, including the instant save winner.

 

 

You can disagree with who's 1st and who's 4th but the Top 4 on this list is the Top 4 tonight.

 

Omar at #5 means he probably has the most support among the rest, thus he won the instant save.

[TeamAudra]

7 minutes ago, season1 said:

 

Actually, if anything, most here discount FB stats this season because their snowflake was middling or lagging behind others. But so far this season, FB lined up with the elimination (bottom 3/4 were usually in the bottom half of stats rankings). 

 

Since we lost iTunes as a reliable trend indicator, I looked at FB and GT, snapshots and cumulative data. The composite scoring seems to have predicted the safe contestants.

 

Here's what I got last night based on FB (all weeks) and GT (semis). It lines up with tonight's results, including the instant save winner.

 

 

You can disagree with who's 1st and who's 4th but the Top 4 on this list is the Top 4 tonight.

 

Omar at #5 means he probably has the most support among the rest, thus he won the instant save.

The problem I have is that you cherry pick the data that supports your conclusions, but ignore data that does not. For example, the playoff Facebook numbers on Team Blake. 
 

I could recite countless examples from other seasons that call into question the accuracy of Facebook, but it would probably be a waste of time. I would start with Season 16, where Maelyn got destroyed on Facebook, including in the finale. It didn’t matter, though, because we all knew Maelyn was winning anyway. 
 

Having said that, I like to look at the numbers as much as you do, but I think it’s important to understand the limitations, and consider other metrics, as well…not just the ones that support your narrative. 

[Gustavo527]

I firmly, FIRMLY believe that Morgan is NOT placing any lower than 2nd.  

 

And the thought of her "only surpassing Omar for being in the pimp spot" is quite...i don't want to be disrespecful but...no, just no

[season1]

18 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

The problem I have is that you cherry pick the data that supports your conclusions, but ignore data that does not. For example, the playoff Facebook numbers on Team Blake. 
 

I could recite countless examples from other seasons that call into question the accuracy of Facebook, but it would probably be a waste of time. I would start with Season 16, where Maelyn got destroyed on Facebook, including in the finale. It didn’t matter, though, because we all knew Maelyn was winning anyway. 
 

Having said that, I like to look at the numbers as much as you do, but I think it’s important to understand the limitations, and consider other metrics, as well…not just the ones that support your narrative. 

 

I didn't follow S16 social media because I wasn't really invested much in that season. I was just happy that my favorites made the finale and the season dubbed "legendary season" was always gonna end up with John winning.

 

I did follow S17 social media but I relied more on iTunes so even though many here were predicting Katie to win because she was dominating FB, it was out of character for the main demo of the show. Hoot was getting the iTunes streaming so I thought he'd win and 2nd place was between Ricky and Katie. Blake vs John? Slight edge to Ricky. My snowflake that season was Kat, who probably would have been in the Finale by PV if it were a T5 format.

 

S18-S20 don't count since they had coach quota. So for history on which social media platforms are somewhat predictive, I looked at S21 data. FB and somewhat GT were very close to the actual results. IG, Twitter, YT not so much. All platforms have biases. Which biases are more inline with the core demo?

 

I used to do composite scoring of all platforms but it's too much data to keep track of.  And not many people contribute the data from other sites. Would be nice to have iTunes back.

 

Anyway, anything goes in the Finale. Casual votes would be hard to predict. GT would probably be closer than FB then. In the semis however, it's almost like you have to add a bonus factor for being on Team Blake to predict a semifinalist's chance to make the Finale.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by season1

[TeamAudra]

I personally believe using “Bodie the voice” and first and last names for the others, spoils the GT data. 
 

Also…saying reacts have been predictive (when it’s clearly been suspect at best), then changing it to an average over 4 rounds, so that it fits the narrative, is what I’m talking about. Moving the goal posts, cherry picking, etc. 

 

For all we know, all of Team Blake could be the top 3, or Morgan could be winning…The data from any of the sources isn’t conclusive of anything, due to biases of the users. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by TeamAudra

[TeamAudra]

22 minutes ago, Gustavo527 said:

I firmly, FIRMLY believe that Morgan is NOT placing any lower than 2nd.  

 

And the thought of her "only surpassing Omar for being in the pimp spot" is quite...i don't want to be disrespecful but...no, just no

Then to say that if Morgan wins, it will be because of for Team Blake.  

Edited December 7, 2022 by TeamAudra

[season1]

Finale results or socials at that time really don't matter to me. They could line up or not. I'm just happy that my favorites made the finale.

 

And seeing the data beforehand made me a bit at ease that they could possibly get the PVs despite many in this forum predicting (more wishful thinking) that they won't make it.

 

Since I was already looking at data for my own purposes, I thought I'd share them as I see them.

Edited December 7, 2022 by season1