ButterflyEffect

Colorado hasn't had much polling. Survey Monkey dropped a Biden +13 yesterday, but Survey Monkey is hot trash so it really shouldn't count. Polls from a few weeks ago were very good for Biden though, and we haven't seen a tightening anywhere else to indicate that it could be happening in CO. Nevada could be close....two high level polling agencies have Biden +2 (Emerson) and +6 (Siena). Maybe split the difference there. I'd say if we're in a situation where there is a 3-4 point shift to Trump in Nevada that it's a moot point anyway, Trump will have likely already won the election as a proportional shift across the board in swing states that large will likely also give them Pennsylvania and all the southern swing states. It's not realistic to expect some states to shift one way and some to shift the other. Much like what we saw in 2016, most states will shift with each other. If you truly want to see what Liberal overconfidence looks like, check these guys out: https://leantossup.ca/us-presidency/ https://twitter.com/LeanTossup https://twitter.com/EScrimshaw While I really do hope for a Biden victory Tuesday, one positive of a Trump victory would be seeing these clowns have to explain the 8+ months of their cocky, arrogant tweets and opinion pieces.

If I were being overconfident I'd tell you that Texas and Georgia are about to flip blue along with every other state I just listed. I'll throw it all out there so there's no confusion to my thought process: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio could easily stay Trump Tuesday night. Anyone claiming they're easy victories for Biden are ignoring polling data. they're basically ties. In fact I suspect Iowa and Ohio are won by Trump no matter the result Tuesday. Texas and Georgia only flip Biden if it's a complete Biden blowout. This is unlikely however. Pennsylvania is close enough that a standard polling error is all that's needed for Trump to win it. That's basically a 2016 scenario. Biden is polling so well Michigan and Wisconsin that even a standard polling error in favour of Trump doesn't win it for him. What you're hoping for in those states is a catastrophic failure of polling and/or interference. Beyond these toss-up states, I'm not sure what else there is for any party to hope for. I know that partisans are sometimes blind to the realities of the political situation, and trust me I've seen some really bad takes from amateur pundits on both sides of the spectrum. The likelihood of the Democrats winning Missouri and Republicans winning Oregon are pretty equal: less than 1%, yet I've seen both proposed. You seem to have a distrust of polling though, so nothing I said will matter to you. I get that the United States is full of absolutely horrid, biased polling agencies. There are plenty of good agencies though with excellent track records with detailed information.

Paths to victory for Trump if he loses PA: #1: If the entire election map stays the same as it did in 2016 with the exception of PA (very unlikely). #2: Taking into account that MI and WI are likely Democrat wins, Trump would need to win: AZ, FL, GA, NC, and OH. Margins in those states are closer than MI and WI so this is a more plausible route. Losing just one of these states makes it impossible for Trump to win. EDIT: bad math by me. #2 isn't possible as written. Trump would ALSO need to win Michigan along with the listed states. Or alternatively Trump loses Michigan but instead wins Wisconsin AND Minnesota. But at that point it's starting to become a reach. Lol @ flawed polls. Ignore clearly bad polls, digest good state level polling. It's not that hard.

Speaking of polling, there's not much left. Some agencies will likely scramble to get one more set of polls out Monday. Not sure about the laws in the USA, but here in Canada polling isn't allowed nor can you release a poll on election day. That may be different in the USA, especially since you guys also do exit polling (something else not allowed in Canada). Maybe we see some on Tuesday too if allowed. Among high-level, top-rated polling agencies today we have: National USC Dornsife: Biden +11 NBC/WSJ: Biden +10 NYT/Siena State-level polls Nevada: Biden +6 Michigan: Biden +8 North Carolina: Biden +3 Arizona: Biden +6 Florida: Biden +3 Pennsylvania: Biden +6 Wisconsin: Biden +11

Top level polling isn't 17 points off. "The polling is wrong" is pretty much the only thing Republicans can cling to right now since things look bleak for them come Tuesday. Republicans are absolutely more passionate about their party. That isn't anything new. They consistently stand united, whereas the Democratic party likes to just fight amongst themselves. I don't blink an eye when I see a picture of a massive Republican rally....it's been like that forever.

Penn looking real good to be the tipping point state election night

I don't listen to Michael Moore. He's the left wing version of a crazy conspiracy theorist. I suspect there will be a slight shift on election night towards Republicans compared to the current polling average. I'm guessing though it'll only be around 2% though.

Political pundits who have a lot more time on their hands will look at the raw polling data and check the cross tabs, basically demographic data and try and figure out if a poll is capturing a realistic portion of a population or not. This likely goes into weighting a poll and giving it a grade as well, like what Nate at Fivethirtyeight does. No poll will be perfect, but knowing which group have been undersampled or oversampled can give a good idea of how a poll result might be skewed. Last week someone called out Traflager on very suspect crosstab data on a poll (I think it was national but I'm not sure). First they defended it, but when pushed for more details they ended up deleting the poll completely.

I'm not sure what that quote means.

That has been my fear throughout this entire election cycle. Think about the excitement and momentum that surrounded President Obama in 2008 then compare that to Biden in 2020. People may be motivated to vote against Trump, but that doesn't get people to jump out of bed and feel excited about voting. That's how you end up with the mindset of "well....it'll take me a few hours to vote, and I'm feeling lazy.....good thing Biden is ahead in the polls so if I don't vote it won't matter". Repeat that a large number of times and you have a recipe for defeat. Being excited about your candidate means you'd stand for hours in wind, rain, snow, sleet, anything for them. I guess one positive for the Biden campaign is that mail-in ballot numbers have been very good so far. Those votes will likely overwhelmingly be for Biden. If those numbers were low right about now it would be a major sign of problems ahead.

Going to request Wednesday morning off of work in case it's a late night like in 2016. Last election I was up until 4am

People are only dreaming if they look at those numbers and come to the conclusion that GA and TX are easy Biden victories. Some aggregates who are a bit pompous and arrogant (*cough* LeanToss Up) are treating it as such. Polling in those states is, by the very definition, a tie. I think it's more indicative of how well Biden is doing elsewhere more so than how he's doing in TX and GA. Come election night, win or lose for Biden, I suspect TX and GA will be won by Trump, though likely only by a few points. IF Biden were to win either (or both states) it would also only be by a few points, but would likely indicate that he's won other swing states + the rust belt by commanding amounts. You don't win Texas by 1 point and also win Michigan by 1 point.

Eight days out....here's my projection....not much has changed, polls have been nearly static for some time now. And just for fun, I've also mapped, in my opinion, the best case and worst case scenarios for both the Dems and Reps. Democrat Best Case Scenario This scenario happens if you believe the current state-level polling is correct in places like Georgia and Texas. A lot of top level polling is showing Biden narrowly ahead in those states, though it's well within the margin of error. Whether or not I believe that Biden will actually win those states is another matter....but Texas and Georgia going blue would likely mean that nation-wide that this election is a complete blowout. Republican Best Case Scenario It's basically almost the 2016 map, plus Minnesota and New Hampshire. You could also make a good case for Virginia as well. For this to happen, pollsters will have forgotten how to conduct state-level polling, as this would represent a result well beyond the margin of error.

New Hampshire is the most Conservative-leaning Northeast state. Republicans have eyed it for quite some time, but it's really only in play if there's a huge Trump blowout come election night. Top line polling has shown Biden with a double digit lead in NH.

I'm going to have to write a kind letter to the NFL requesting they stop putting the god damn NFC East in these primetime games for everyone to watch. Christ.

Are you sure you want to watch the Eagles and Giants? That's about as bad as watching the debate.

Whew okay, thanks NDP!

So uh.....what's your over/under on the government falling today? There's no way the NDP would let this happen....right??

You say Niko House like we're supposed to know who that is and/or trust what they say.

Lmao what a joke. I guess Ron Rivera is secretly a Giants fan. Or maybe Rivera wants Lawrence and doesn't want the Giants to have a chance at him.

So that raises another point. If you can finish the entire process in 20 minutes, why are there other locations where voters stand in line for hours on end?

And sort of related to that last point....I get why some people may not want to vote. It's been something I've been meaning to bring up in this thread to spark discussion for a while. On average, whether you live in the USA or elsewhere, how long does it take you to vote? From showing up at the polling station to exit? Why does voting in the USA end up being such a chore? On average I'm in and out in under 10 minutes, usually closer to 5. The longest I ever spent at a polling station was the very first time I voted, as I wasn't registered or on the voter list, so I had to be sworn in. Could have been quicker, but I was with a group of friends who had to do the same.

They didn't really nail it in 2016. Sure, they predicted Trump victories in key states, but they massively overstated Republican support. I think they had the rust belt states around Trump +5% when he ended up winning by under 1%. Trafalger's heavy Republican bias is why their results often get tossed to the side and ignored when they're released. Biden camp shouldn't be sitting on anything though. Complacency is exactly how this slips through your hands. Democrats stay home because it's a sure thing, and then suddenly it's no longer a sure thing. EDIT: Biden up 2 in a GOP internal in a seat the Democrats lost by 10% in 2016. https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1317466934309490688

We can bitch and moan about it all we want. Whether you like it or not, if the shoe were on the other foot the Democrats would be doing the exact same thing. It's just the nature of American politics.