ButterflyEffect

David Cochrane.....now there's a top knotch Newfoundlander. Not like that gross Rex Murphy.

New Brunswick General Election has been called for Monday, September 14th. It's a bold move, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for him.

Atlantic Canada as a whole is a bit volatile right now, with 3 of 4 provinces being under minority government mandates. New Brunswick looks like it'll be moving to the polls soon. I think the Conservatives see that they can improve on their seat count and possibly get a majority government so they're going to bounce on it. PEI could probably do the same thing to be honest, the Conservatives there right now are seeing historic levels of approval. Nova Scotia has the most stable situation, even though their Premier just announced he's stepping down. Liberals are under a majority mandate and will likely hit the polls in 2022 for their next fixed election. Newfoundland will swear in a new Premier next week, but his governing Liberal party is also under a minority mandate. Our election laws actually dictate that since the new Premier wasn't elected that he will have to call for a general election within one year of them being sworn in. Liberals are polling at a slight majority territory at the moment, but it might be too risky for them to call an election right away. Conservatives are still breathing down their necks.

Over under on a NB provincial election being called in the next few days? Get ready, Chris.

Research regarding Ivermectin and the SARS-CoV-2 virus is actually very easy to find, as it's been published by several researchers. No one is covering it up. Ivermectin has shown promising efficacy in in vitro (meaning in controlled lab studies outside the body), but in vivo studies (meaning actually in the bodies of test subjects) is scant or non-existent. In vitro studies usually mark the very beginning of drug research, and positive in vitro testing usually leads to in vivo testing of test animals (eg. rats) before progressing further. Taking preliminary in vitro research results and immediately applying it to humans, completely untested, is absolutely insane, reckless, and can and will result in adverse effects and/or death. There could come a day when Ivermectin is indeed deemed effective against the COVID-19 virus, however this is NOT how drug development works. You can't just skip the middle parts of research, otherwise you may hurt or kill people. Drug companies and R&D companies are being afforded a lot of liberties right now to try and get a vaccine or treatment for COVID, but skipping a vital part of the drug development process will not fly, even in the worst shithole countries on this planet.

Of more subtle concern — amplified recently due to the COVID crisis — is the rush to announce scientific findings before they have been sufficiently vetted. Physicians and politicians are desperate for reliable and actionable information on COVID-19. There were early non-peer-reviewed studies on hydroxychloroquine, and I need not point out the resulting quagmire. While researchers and experts understand that the information posted on preprint servers may or may not be reliable, such data may be unintentionally misunderstood by the general public or distorted by those who post comments on social media. This is at best misleading, and at worst leads to (dare I say it) the emergence of fake news. While we should act quickly on COVID research, we have to ensure sure the science is still scrutinized and stands up to critique. We have to trust the process. With all that being said, I don’t mean to delegitimize the work of Dr. Proton Rahman and colleagues. It is neither misinterpreted nor misleading and is the result if renowned scientists from acclaimed institutes. It is just putting the cart before the horse, so to speak. Being in the materials science field, I am familiar with the works of both Prof. Ellen Kuhl and Prof. Alain Goriely. Moreover, while not familiar with Rahman’s works personally, I do not doubt his credentials. This is a rigorous study. It will likely be published in a reputable journal (the authors can reach out to me if they are interested in Cell Press). However, care should be taken before The Telegram, or any other media outlet, announces scientific findings with the implication they are definitive. Particularly prior to peer review. In times when leaders should turn to science rather than politics to make policy and societal decisions, we want the underlying science to be as trustworthy as possible. At least as trustworthy as the free press. It just makes sense. Steven W. Cranford, Ph.D. Editor-in-Chief, Matter (Cell Press) Boston, Mass. https://www.thetelegram.com/opinion/local-perspectives/letter-peer-review-before-press-it-just-makes-sense-482220/ Good editorial from my local news paper regarding media publishing news articles on non-peer-reviewed science. A little glimpse inside the scientific publishing process. Copied and pasted the entire editorial above since it is paywall'd, however you do get three free articles a month so unless you've been reading other stuff from the website you should be able to also see it at the above link.

lmao thank you.

The jury is still out regarding mask effectiveness, but I found these two research papers pretty interesting: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252 https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsnano.0c05025 (note that the size of the SARS-CoV-2 virus can range from 30 to 200 nm, and water droplets which carry the virus are around 5 micron or 5000 nm). The takeaway? Cotton masks can be pretty dang effective. The drawback? Masks are only effective if they fit well. I think the majority of people fall into that category....wearing masks that are improperly fitting their face. Anyone with a beard isn't getting a good fit. Of course, filtering 30% of junk is better than 0 (no mask), but 30% is abysmally low compared to what's possible if people just knew how to properly wear masks.

Heard a great counterpoint to this a few weeks ago that makes quite a bit of sense. Yes there are young folks who are out there acting invincible, but another factor to consider is that this is the demographic most likely to be working in the service industry. You have your servers, bartenders, fast food workers, etc. which don't have the luxury of hiding away from the public. All new cases in our province have been linked to either people returning home from work abroad, or citizens returning from travel abroad after being stranded in other parts of the world during the height of the pandemic. Looks like everyone has been following post-travel quarantine rules though, so nothing has spread (just 5 cases in the past month or so). Meanwhile in our city we have dumbass American military members on an overnight layover defying their quarantine instructions to visit bars and restaurants.

Here comes the Trump propaganda. Time to right course and get back to the "You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero" he was looking for back in the spring.

I think our theatres are still closed, though a lot of other things have re-opened (albeit at reduced capacities). But we only have 1 active case in the entire province which was related to work travel to Texas, so things are pretty safe.....for now anyway.

Some perspective on Canada's numbers: long term care homes were completely ravaged. As of late May, 81% of all deaths in Canada were linked to long term care facilities, which is about double the world average: https://www.cihi.ca/sites/default/files/document/covid-19-rapid-response-long-term-care-snapshot-en.pdf?emktg_lang=en&emktg_order=1 If this pandemic has done anything in Canada, it's done a great job exposing the abysmal conditions in some of these facilities (both privately and publicly owned). Outside of that we fared a lot better. However, there is no picking and choosing numbers which you like, sadly. The cases and deaths in each state, province, and country reflect the shortfalls in each respective location.

It might be political suicide to roll for one right now (they'd need either the NDP or the Bloc's support anyway), but should polling become more favourable for the Conservatives rolling into the fall months they may try and push a vote of no confidence in the house. I can't see the BQ wanting to support it, but the NDP could see a good opportunity to gain more seats. As for the leadership, it's been a shitshow for what should have been a slam dunk for MacKay. I think he'll end up winning, though it'll be a lot closer than it has any business being.

It's a bad time for the Conservatives to be running around leaderless since this is complete gold for them. Trudeau and the Liberals got a lot of good will from the electorate thanks to their excellent handling of the pandemic, so I guess we'll see how the polls shift in the coming weeks. Even still I think they'll be able to survive this.

California has been a slow roll followed by a moderate yet noticeable uphill trend recently. The other two states were steady with daily new cases for quite some time and are now absolutely exploding.

Florida, Texas, and California are actually f*cked. Florida has ~ 20,000 new cases in two days. Yeesh. The USA really does like to "go big or go home".

Bad news hoping for herd immunity. New paper published in Nature Med. followed a group of people who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, including some asymptomatic individuals. The findings: - Antibodies produced by the body during infection slowly decrease in concentration in the months after - Some asymptomatic people individuals has antibody levels decrease to the point where they were not detectable. If antibody concentrations decrease then that's a problem, and open up the risk of people catching COVID-19 more than once. Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6.pdf Only one paper, so take it with a grain of salt. Like any study, its merit will come when others find the same results. However, Nature Medicine is a very, very good journal so the research methods and findings are sound.

Has there been any discussion in the past regarding possibly getting DC to become a part of either Maryland or Virginia? That would also be a decent option.

That 0-29 age group is a good mix of ages who either don't know better (under 10) or the ones who think they're invincible. As much as I'd like to sit down in a bar for a drink on a nice day, its not worth the risk. A lot of young people don't think like myself though.

The theory that the increase in numbers is due to an increase in testing is certainly popular, but not based on fact. As example, numbers for Houston: Check back in 2-3 weeks regarding hospitalizations and deaths for Texas since things only appear to be getting out of control now after weathering the March-early June period very well compared to spots like New York. There likely is some merit to an increase in transmission as people move inside to avoid the summer heat. It's sort of the opposite of what you see further north, but no one wants to actually be outside during a summer day in places like Texas or Florida.

So....what exactly is the argument against Washington DC becoming a state?

Looks like Texas and Florida are taking action regarding the skyrocketing number of new cases in each state the past week.

It's an attempt to de-legitimize any argument I make because I'd be from some backwoods middle of nowhere place that just doesn't understand what's actually happening.

I have made comments in this thread the past few weeks regarding good vs bad officers. You may also note that I'm not running around, screaming about defunding the police. However, your absolute incapability to acknowledge that the police have been completely out of line with dealing with peaceful protesters AND bystanders/media members says all I need to know. The strange fetishism of the police by the right wing is truly bizarre. They scream about freedom and civil rights, and then they don't blink an eye when police open fire on people standing on their front deck or assaulting/arresting members of the media who are just doing their jobs. The irony is almost laughable.

So you've clearly ignored the last 10+ pages of this thread, showing peaceful protesters and onlookers (including media members) being assaulted and nearly murdered,. I don't have time or sympathy for those who have taken advantage of the situation to loot, riot, and destroy property for fun. I also have no sympathy for the police who have demonstrated they are exactly what people are protesting against. Where I live is clearly stated under my avatar. If you think I live on PEI then you may want to do a double check.