CarmenSandiego

Thanks. And thank Winterfan for suggesting that I add the rule about confidence to this season.

Last season, I posted my first analysis of the rules that American Idol contestants need to follow in order to get far and even win on this show, along with my analyses of why each contestant from Season 20 lost up until the Final 3, when I lost all interest after Leah was eliminated in third place. Because of the positive response to my analyses, I'll be bringing back my list of the rules that the contestants from Season 21 need to follow, only I'll be making definite changes based on comments from people on this forum. The contestants from Season 21 did enough things right to get to the Semi-Finals, but now they need to do more to survive the first round of voting, at the very least, and this list of rules will help them do so. Show Singing and Performing Talent The Top 26 obviously have singing and performing talent; otherwise, they wouldn't have gotten to the Top 26. But now that America will be voting, it's not enough. They have to show the singing and performing talent that they have for America in order for people to vote for them. There are two pitfalls that contestants who make it to the live voting round have to avoid. The first is having great performance skills but weaker vocal skills. Cameron and Tristen from last season are great examples of this pitfall. Both were great entertainers, but Cameron tended to put his performance skills ahead of his vocal skills, while Tristen just didn't have the vocal chops to compete with many of the others in his season. As a result, Cameron failed to make the Top 14, while Tristen had to have a wildcard slot and once he was up for elimination alongside Lady K., he was a goner. The second pitfall a contestant who made the live voting rounds must avoid is having fine vocal skills but having few if any performance skills. Jacob from last season was probably the best male vocalist, but he didn't do as well with his performance skills as he apparently didn't have a natural stage presence and when he tried to emphasize his performance skills, his vocals suffered. Sir Blayke was another one from last season who didn't have the performance skills. Sir Blayke was gone in the first week while Jacob failed to make the Top 14. But there's more to showing singing talent if a contestant wants to win. They have to make sure that their vocal tone is pleasant to the ear. Jacob had this problem as well, as his tone was grating to my ears. Adam Lambert from Season 8 was an even more prominent example, as his tone on songs like "Ring of Fire" drove me so crazy that by the Final 4, I was willing to vote for anybody but him, despite the fact that he had tremendous vocal talent and fine performance talent. Fortunately, not many singers have this problem and I don't think the contestants who made it this far this season have this problem. Still, it's something to note. Song Choice is Key One way to show singing and performing talent, especially in the early rounds, is through song selection. There's a reason why Randy Jackson, a former judge, said "Song choice, song choice, song choice." One good song can enable a singer who had little exposure prior to the voting rounds to advance, while one poor song choice can sink even a singer who had a lot of exposure, although that fate is more likely to happen to someone who didn't have much screen time before the voting rounds. The list of people who fell victim to horrible song choices are too numerous to count, but I can give one recent example: Arthur Gunn. He had a distinctive singing style, albeit one that you either loved or hated. He needed to choose songs that could be easily adjusted to fit his style. However, "Take Me Home, Country Roads" was not a song that could be arranged to easily fit his style. Yet he chose it anyway, and it tanked. Had the season been longer, it might have kept him out of the finale; as it is, he lost to Just Sam in the end and one reason was his violation of this rule. Another pitfall one must avoid is doing songs that don't give a singer the chance to really show off their voice. This was one of the reasons why Scarlet was one of the first to be eliminated last season. She chose "Levitating", which really doesn't give a singer a chance to show off their vocal ability. Contestants from this season would do well to avoid repeating her mistake. A final pitfall that the contestants from this season should avoid is singing any songs done by Whitney, Celine or one that a former American Idol contestant killed unless you absolutely have to do so. Doing that kind of song just begs for comparisons with the original singer and more often than not, the new singer's going to come out a loser. One shining example is Lady K. She sang "Before He Cheats" for her performance in the Top 24, and while she was able to avoid elimination, this set the pattern for bad song choices that ultimately ended her run far too soon. Be Consistently Outstanding or Better Yet, Constantly Improve Every Week This might have been more important in the earlier seasons, before the semi-finals and finals got shorter weeks, but the Top 26 still need to be great each and every time you're out there. They can't afford to have an off night, even if they've been great before. One of the reasons why Nick Fradiani won his season despite being one of the weakest winners in terms of vocal talent is because he was able to be consistent when everyone else pretty much fell apart around him, having too many off weeks. He might not have been consistently outstanding, but he didn't completely fall apart either. And if they've been great before, the Top 26 can't afford to coast on their laurels or even appear to do so. There's a reason why front-runners have often fallen short of the finals and that's because they usually start at the top and all too often, the only place to go is downhill or just stay consistently great. It's very difficult for them to improve. That is one of the reasons why LaKisha and Melinda from Season 6 lost -- they began at or near the top and either began going downhill (LaKisha) or just couldn't improve enough (Melinda). Jeremiah Harmon from Season 17 is also an example of someone being eliminated before his time because he wasn't able to improve enough to excite enough people and after two sleepy performances in Week 3 of the finals, he was gone. And last season, Fritz started out as a candidate that most (including me) thought would get into the finale. But on Disney Night, he stumbled and never truly recovered, and was eliminated just before the finale. Another aspect of consistency that singers should take into consideration is doing well with both up-tempo songs and ballads (for vocal powerhouses) or both country and non-country songs (for country singers). Nicolina from last season could do great on ballads, or on Ursula's song "Poor Unfortunate Souls" on Disney Night. But she had problems with doing up-tempo songs. As a result, she too was eliminated just before the finale. Have the Confidence to Believe That You Belong At the advice of Winterfan, I have decided to add this rule to the list and replace the former rule of being memorable for positive reasons, as I can fold that into the sixth rule. The semi-finalists from Season 21 were obviously good enough to get this far; otherwise, the judges wouldn't have picked them. But as they perform for votes, they have to believe that they are good enough to get even farther. And to believe that, they need confidence. Cadence from last season is a shining example of someone who had problems with confidence. She was fine when a family member was nearby, but when she had to stand on her own two feet, she struggled. Oliver from this season might have to get more confidence if he wants to make it to the finale and even win. Know Who You Are As An Artist This is a brand-new rule, debuting for this season. After 21 years, American Idol isn't just looking for a singer anymore. They're looking for an artist. And if a singer has a distinct, believable artistic identity, they can go far, especially if they are a country singer. One example of a singer who had problems with creating a believable artistic identity is Mike from last year. Mike was one of four country singers in the competition, but he also had elements of R&B in his voice and many on IDF thought that he was a better R&B singer than a country one, or at least a more believable one. This may be why he was eliminated in the Top 7. By contrast, Noah had a distinct and believable artistic identity and this was one of the reasons why he won. Remember: You Are a Package Being unique, being memorable, or just being extremely talented -- all those things can help the Top 24 create a package that will enable them to gain fans that will vote for them. If the Top 24 are able to create a package that is exciting enough, they'll get lots and lots of fans on their side. If they can't -- they're in trouble. Lots of contestants who made the Top 24 in past years were eliminated in the semi-finals or finals because they weren't able to create a good enough package to get fans on their side. One recent example is Scarlet. She was the one who walked out of rehearsals for the duets round after her duet partner had trouble remembering the lyrics and had to go somewhere else to cool down. This was a negative part of her package, and it hurt her. By contrast Maddie, Just Sam, Chayce and Noah all had packages that appealed to enough people to enable them to win their respective seasons. Maddie and Noah were likable while Just Sam and Chayce had sympathetic backstories. The one thing you don't want to have is a package that is flat-out boring. This was the main problem that Sir Blayke from last year had. His package was plain and boring, thanks to weak performance skills and utter forgettability, and he paid for it by being one of the first ones eliminated. Take Any Advice Offered To You And Follow It Given that Katy, Lionel and Luke are unlikely to do critiques that contestants will argue with, I decided to alter this rule and suggest that contestants should take any advice that is offered to them, whether by the judges or by mentors. One example of someone who didn't take advice was Cameron from last season. Bebe advised him to tone down his manic energy for his Top 24 performance, and he ignored her. The result was a predictable train wreck. While he survived over Sir Blayke because the only thing worse than being a train wreck is being forgettable, when he failed to make the Top 10 in public voting the following week, he was gone. By contrast, Tristen took the advice from the judges to tone his energy down after his first audition and he made the Top 11. Gather a Fan Base -- And Sustain It This is the culmination of every other rule I mentioned on this list. Every rule before this one is intended to enable members of the Top 24 to gather a fan base that will keep them in the competition. Certain genres are particularly good at gathering fan bases that are dedicated to keeping a singer in the competition around, most notably country music. Country music fans have shown their dedication to keeping a singer around in the past. Just ask Carrie Underwood from Season 4. While Bo Bice's fans were more openly supporting him, Carrie's were quietly dialing votes for her over and over and over. This is what got her the win. Others, such as Caleb Lee Hutchinson from Season 16, got farther than maybe they should have by having a dedicated base of country supporters. You also should appeal to enough people that as the numbers dwindle, you can pick up their fans. This is known as the "funnel effect", and occurs with singers who share a certain genre, such as R&B, as well as singers who are similar enough to appeal to a certain type of fan base, such as middle-aged housewives. As the numbers dwindle, the survivors pick up fans who voted for others. This is a major reason why Kris Allen won in Season 8. As the numbers dwindled, he was able to pick up enough voters from those who lost their favorites to get past Adam Lambert. It helped that while nobody could deny Adam's vocal talent, his performance style had people either loving him or hating him. And as he moved on, those who hated him had fewer and fewer people to vote for, until finally they could only vote for Kris. As the semi-finals begin, I'll be looking at the singers who perform and examine how well they succeeded with (or more often, failed at) these rules. But for now, I'd like you to comment on the rules from this season and tell me what you think about them.

I actually think that one of either Colin or Oliver will sneak into the Top 3 along with Iam and Wé, but there is an outside chance that it could be two girls and a guy In the Top 3.

I have to agree. I don't think that Colin is winning this season. Top 5? Oh yeah. Top 3? Probably. The win? Nope. I see either Iam, Oliver or We winning.

Two guys and one girl.

And I think that a girl can win as well, with the most likely one being We. So that's two people who believe that a girl can win.

Honestly, I think that Oliver is the only one between him, Colin and Iam who I think will win it all. Colin is weaker than Chayce or even Noah and doesn’t have the edit those two did. I’d prefer Iam over Oliver but he’s being heavily pimped and previous ones who were heavily pimped didn’t win. We is the only girl who I think has a real chance to win and even the fact that she was on The Voice doesn’t automatically disqualify her. But her being a girl is a huge hurdle nowadays. Still, she could win. I have my hopes.

Females: 1. WE! 2. Kaeyra 3. Lucy 4. Haven 5. Megan 6. Marybeth or Mariah Males: 1. Iam 2. Oliver 3. Colin 4. Elijah 5. Warren 6. Tyson Bonus: 1. Olivia 2. Matt

I agree with you. Group 1: Emma, Nailyah and PJAE. Group 2: Dawson, Malik and Michael.

Who do you get winner vibes from?

I chose female, Northeast and 22-25. Guess which one fits those criteria.

Clark has good taste.

Yeah, that would explain why there are 14 girls instead of only 13.

Well if they didn’t, they were wrong.

Yeah. What happened there?

Yeah. Colin is mediocre.

Marybeth sang Carrie? Really? Still, she apparently was good enough.

I'll be hopefully watching. Currently, I'm watching a rerun of last night since I only saw part of it due to eating Easter dinner with my cousins, but I should be finished in time to watch the second part of Showstoppers.

I would have to agree that “Ain’t No Way” wasn’t Wé‘s absolute best performance, but it was probably better than a lot of other singer’s very best.

I’m convinced that she’ll be the last girl standing, which means she’ll probably make the finale and I sure hope that she wins it all.

I am watching Oliver. I think that he’s the one of those three you mentioned who’s most likely to land in the finale — although Kenboy is right to point out that Oliver isn’t the best-looking guy.

I love Iam and Nailyah's song choices!

Unlikely. There’s too much cannon fodder.

Yeah. And PJAE isn’t in much better shape.

Me too!