CarmenSandiego

Top 20 Questions 1. Which 10 singers will advance to Top 12 by the public votes? (100 points) - Iam - Wé! - Zachariah - Megan - Warren - Kaeyra - Oliver - Lucy - Colin () - Marybeth 2. Which 2 singers will advance to Top 12 by the Judges’ Wildcard Picks? (60 points) - Tyson - Nutsa (and the Facebook moms go nuts) 3. Which 5 singers (out of 8 singers who will go home) that you are confident will not move forward to Top 12? (100 points) - Nailyah - Michael - Hannah - Paige Anne - Mariah 4. Which female singer will be announced first by Ryan Seacrest to move forward to Top 12? (50 points) - Wé! 5. Which male singer will be announced first by Ryan Seacrest to move forward to Top 12? (50 points) - Iam 6. What will be the ratio of male and female singers in the Top 12? (20 points) - 6 males and 6 females Bonus Question 7.How many female singers will advance to Top 12 by the public votes? (50 points) - 5

So what else is new? But I love the fact that the Facebook moms are going nuts about Nutsa.

Oh wow! Did not expect We to know sign language! And I love Skyfall! She brought the house down!

Yeah. Warren is better than Colin. So is Noah for that matter.

Looks like it.

Just as well. Haven is too green and Tyson hasn't lived up to his promise.

She's in Group 2. This is Group 1.

I thought that Iam was hoarse but it could just be a rasp. Liked the song though.

If it was between Haven and Lucy, I’d keep Lucy. I’d also keep Nutsa over Haven. Haven’s just too green and Nutsa’s definitely entertaining. But Lucy apparently got a standing ovation after her performance, so she might get in without needing the Wildcard slot. I also agree that Iam and Wé will probably not stink it up in the Top 20 round and sail right into the Top 10.

It took a lot of dedication, but I was able to analyze why five of the six contestants who failed to make the Top 20 lost: PJAE, Elise, Malik, Elijah and Emma. I have just one more contestant left, and that is Dawson. Dawson is the last contestant whose American Idol journey ended in the Top 26. But why did his journey end so early? Looking at my rules on what Season 21 contestants should follow will hopefully explain what Dawson did right, what he did wrong and why Dawson lost. Show Singing and Performing Talent Dawson had enough singing and performing talent to make the Top 26, but that isn't enough anymore. Now he had to show that talent in order to get America's votes. And how did he do? The results on IDF were mixed. Some liked it, some really liked it, some really didn't like it and some, like me -- I gave him a 5.5 -- didn't like it much. Crisis thought that he shined in the soft parts but that the band overpowered him in the bigger sections and he tried too hard to have stage presence. And the TooFab staff put him ahead of only Elijah in his group, saying that they felt a massive disconnection to the song on his part. All in all, I'd say that Dawson wasn't terrible with this rule but he wasn't great either and thus stumbled on this rule. Song Choice Is Key One reason why he had problems with the first rule is probably because of this rule, which states that song choice is key. The TooFab staff thought that the song choice was bold since Dawson usually uses a cry in his voice to break hearts and "Copycat" is more of an empowerment anthem. One IDF rater thought the song was underrated and was glad that it was being covered, but didn't want Dawson to be the one to sing it. And I thought that if he wanted to do a Billie Ellish song, he should have done "No Time To Die", which is a James Bond song and thus would be more recognizable to fans. Therefore Dawson fouled up this rule. Be Consistently Outstanding or Better Yet, Consistently Improve Every Week This was another rule that Dawson had problems with. Coming into the Top 26, he didn't have as much exposure as a number of the other contestants in his group did and thus he needed to come out and be outstanding. Unfortunately, he gave a performance that some liked while others didn't, and that's not what he needed to do. Thus Dawson also screwed up this rule. Have the Confidence to Believe That You Belong At least Dawson seemed to do all right in this rule, as he had the confidence to take on an empowerment anthem instead of sticking to his usual lane. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to save him, but at least he didn't have any problems here, so I'll move on. Know Who You Are As an Artist I think that Dawson did a better job with this rule than some of the others who were eliminated. He knew that he couldn't compete with the big voices, so he tried to use his vocal strengths to get far. Unfortunately, he probably should have saved taking a risk with an empowerment anthem for a later time and stuck with what he was good at in his first time performing for his votes, considering the limited exposure that he had. Also, one of the reasons why he had limited exposure is because I'm not sure if he was a pop artist, an R&B one, or a soul one. Still, he didn't completely fail this rule, so I'll move on. Remember, You Are a Package Dawson had limited exposure heading into the Top 26 and this might be one reason why. He had a natural cry to his voice that he could have used to create a package that would get him attention. but for some reason he failed to do so. Maybe it was because he didn't have a sympathetic backstory. Maybe it was because we didn't get enough of a sense of who he was as an artist other than his knowledge that he couldn't compete with the big voices. Either way, he struggled with this rule as well. Take Any Advice Offered to You and Follow It At least Dawson didn't have any problems with this rule. Unfortunately, it wasn't nearly enough to save him. Gather a Fan Base -- and Sustain It This was the biggest problem Dawson had. He wasn't a country singer, so he couldn't get a dedicated fan base of country supporters. He had very limited exposure coming into the Top 26, with his audition not even being aired (much like Malik's) and thus got behind the 8-ball. He needed to have an outstanding performance in order to get a fan base, or at least enough fans who would vote for him. Look at Nailyah from the first group. I thought that she was a goner coming into the Top 26, but she gave a performance that got her into the Top 20. Dawson could have done the same, but instead he gave a mediocre performance. Thus he struck out with this rule as well. Dawson was already in trouble coming into the Top 26. His audition wasn't shown, and he couldn't get a dedicated fan base by singing country, so he was behind the 8-ball in gathering a fan base. His struggles with packaging himself and possible struggles with his artistic identity also hurt him. But he knew his limitations and his strengths, so he could have come out and performed a song that actually played to his strengths and took a risk in the Top 20, if he got that far. But instead, he took his risk one round too soon, and chose a song that didn't suit him well enough, and he paid the price. And that is why Dawson lost.

I pretty much agree with you on it, although I believe that Wé is more of a definite lock to get into the Top 10 votes.

You’ll find out why I ranked Dawson as low as I did when I analyze the reasons why he lost.

I've looked at two people who failed to make the Top 20 who were pretty much expected to fail at this point: PJAE and Malik. I've looked at one who I thought would stick around, only for that person to be forgotten: Elijah. And I looked at one person who probably should've gone farther but had issues that ended her run early: Elise. Now it's time for me to look at one of the remaining two people who found their American Idol journey come to an early end. I chose to look at Emma. Even more than Elise, she should have gone farther. But she didn't, and a look at my rules that Season 21 contestants should follow hopefully will explain what Emma did right, what she did wrong and why Emma lost. Show Singing and Performing Talent Emma definitely had enough singing and performing talent to make the Top 26, but now she needed to show that she had that talent. And how did she do? Actually, she did the best of all of the ones who were eliminated at this point, including Dawson, whom I will get to tomorrow. Only three people on IDF actually rated her below an 8, and most rated her quite a bit higher. I gave her an 8 and said that she was better than Elise. And the TooFab staff put her second in the night, behind only Iam. Crisis was the most critical, thinking that Emma had her moments and praised her "intriguing tone", but because Crisis hated Sam Smith or his song "Lay Me Down", Emma had to be extraordinary in order for Crisis to really root for her, and Emma was merely very good. Still, she succeeded with this rule. Song Choice is Key Emma didn't have any problems with this rule, either. Sure, Crisis didn't like her song but not everybody likes Sam Smith. That said, according to the TooFab staff, Smith is a really good vocalist, yet Emma was able to prove that she had the same amount of range and control that he did. Therefore, she succeeded with this rule as well. Be Consistently Outstanding or Better Yet, Constantly Improve Every Week I think that Emma mostly succeeded with this rule as well. Her audition was a work in progress because of her theatrical mannerisms, then she became less theatrical during Hollywood week and then in the Showstoppers round, she improved even more, getting into the Top 26. That said, she might have plateaued a little bit when she had her first performance for America's votes, and she should have improved even more since had she been extraordinary, Crisis might have loved her performance. Thus while Emma mostly succeeded, she did stumble a bit at the end. Have the Confidence to Believe That You Belong I don't think that I saw Emma lacking any confidence. Unfortunately, it didn't save her from elimination, but at least she did well enough with this rule so I'll move on. Know Who You Are As An Artist I think that this is the first rule that Emma really stumbled on. She came in as a theatrical-type of singer and had to unlearn all the theatrical mannerisms in order to make it to the Top 26. But that meant that she might not have known what her artistic identity was other than being a pop singer with a big voice. And that isn't enough with so many other female pop singers (or singers with a mixture of pop and some other genre) in this group. Thus Emma stumbled with this rule. Remember: You Are a Package I also think that Emma had problems with this rule as well. Her initial package was that of a theatrical singer, but once she began shedding the theatrical tricks, her package was somewhat too plain and she wasn't able to make her package more exciting. Thus Emma failed this rule as well. Take Any Advice Offered To You And Follow It Emma also had no problems with taking the advice that mentor Allan Stone gave her and following it. Unfortunately, it just wasn't enough to save her. Gather a Fan Base -- And Sustain It This was the final rule that Emma failed in. Part of it wasn't her fault -- she apparently is from Canada and Canadians aren't allowed to vote on American Idol. But Tyson was also from Canada, and yet he managed to make it to the Top 20. However, he also was a cute boy and female voters tend to go more for the cute boy than for the talented girl, which is more their fault than Emma's. But Tyson was also an American Platinum ticket winner and thus had a head start in gathering a fan base. Emma didn't have that early advantage, because of her theatrical background and plain packaging underneath it. Also Haven and Mariah, both of whom were in Emma's group, had advantages that she didn't have. Mariah was country, and country fans tend to vote more strenously for country singers while Haven was a cute girl and had a sympathetic backstory with a brother that struggled with depression and suicidal thoughts. Thus they could get more fans than Emma could. In the end, Emma struck out with this rule as well. Emma should have gone farther than she did. She was a talented singer and a fine performer who was able to make a very smart song choice in her first performance for America's votes. Unfortunately, she had too many strikes against her. She had to unlearn her theatrical training and that hindered her ability to discover her artistic identity or package herself in such a way that could attract and sustain a huge fan base in America. She had Canadian fans but they couldn't vote. And finally, her closest rivals, Haven and Mariah, had a head start on her in attracting and sustaining a fan base. This is why Emma sadly lost.

Three down and three to go. So far, I've managed to determine why PJAE, Elise and Malik all had their American Idol journey come to an early end. But there are three other people (two from Group 2 and one from Group 1) who also saw their Idol journey come to an end. One of them was Elijah. I was pretty surprised when he was eliminated early because I thought he might squeak into the Top 20 and instead he was cut. But once I look at my rules on what the contestants in Season 21 should follow, I'm sure that I can determine what Elijah did right, what he did wrong and why Elijah lost. Show Singing and Performing Talent Elijah had enough singing and performing talent, but it's not enough now. He had to show that talent each and every time he performed for America's votes. And how did he do? Not very good, unfortunately. A few on IDF gave him a 7, but most gave him a 6 or lower, including me. I gave him a 6, claiming that it was a good performance but a questionable song choice. Crisis claimed that Elijah began with a lack of energy and even after the run in his song, it still wasn't energetic enough. And the TooFab staff said that his voice didn't adapt to the rhythm of the song well, except maybe until the end, when he belted it out. It didn't help that thanks to Elijah's accident, he couldn't work the stage as well as he did before it. Suffice it to say that Elijah blew the first rule. Song Choice is Key Another problem that Elijah had was with his song choice. I said that it was a questionable song choice, and I wasn't the only one. Crisis said that the song had more energy than Elijah was able to provide and the TooFab staff said that the song didn't play into any of his strengths. Also, Elijah couldn't move around the stage as well as he once did. He should have picked a song that would allow him to stand in one place and just sing. Thus Elijah also fouled up this rule. Be Consistently Outstanding or Better Yet, Constantly Improve Every Week This was another problem that Elijah had. He had been very good before this point, good enough that I thought that he would make the Top 12. But then he stumbled in his very first performance for America's votes. That was not the time to stumble, even if he had been good before that point. Thus Elijah failed that rule as well. Have the Confidence to Believe That You Belong This was one area where I think that Elijah did well in. I never really saw Elijah struggle with confidence during his run on the show. Unfortunately, it didn't save him from elimination, but at least he did well enough with this rule so I'll move on. Know Who You Are As An Artist Until the Top 26, I think that Elijah did a decent job with this rule. Like Malik, he was more of a vocal powerhouse singer who had an almost gospel-like voice. But it seems that Elijah might not have known his artistic identity as well as I thought he did. Had he known his artistic identity more, he might have avoided doing a song that didn't do it any justice. Thus Elijah stumbled with this rule. Remember: You Are a Package Elijah had no problems with this rule. He had the tragic story of his accident and could milk it for sympathy votes. Unfortunately, even though he mentioned his accident even in the intro to his performance, that wasn't enough to save him since he performed in the early part of the show. Still, he did well enough with this rule so I'll move on. Take Any Advice Offered To You And Follow It Elijah also had no problems with taking the advice that mentor Noah Cyrus gave him and following it. Unfortunately, it just wasn't enough to save him. Gather a Fan Base -- And Sustain It Elijah did a decent job with this rule at first. He had been voted America's Platinum Ticket winner and his backstory was able to gain him some fans. That was one reason why I really thought, even after he had his mediocre performance, that he would make it into the Top 20 and displace Hannah, a girl who I thought was better than him that particular night, although not much. But he performed early in the evening, and that probably caused casual fans to forget him by the end of the show. Also, it's possible that some of his fans were complacent enough to slack off in voting for him, thinking that he might make it through anyway. And finally, Hannah was recovering from an illness (she later said that it was COVID), and that no doubt earned her some sympathy votes. So in the end, Elijah struck out with this rule. Elijah did pretty well before the Top 26. He could sing well, although his performance skills were never going to be as good as they once were thanks to his accident. He had a sympathetic backstory with his accident that could attract a fan base. But then he stumbled when he first had to perform for our votes. He chose a song that did not suit his voice and demanded more energy than he was able to give it. And worse, he had to perform first in the evening while Hannah not only performed later but she might have gotten enough sympathy votes due to her illness to enable her to squeak by Elijah. When you add all this up, this is why Elijah lost.

I didn't mean it to come off that way. It's not their fault that America isn't voting for them because they're country, you're right.

Unfortunately, too many country singers have outlasted vocal powerhouse singers. Still, the point is well taken and I won’t mention the country singer bit from now on.

Yesterday, I used my rules that American Idol Season 21 contestants needed to know in order to determine why PJAE and Elise, two contestants in Group 1, saw their journeys on Idol come to an early end. But instead of analyzing why the last eliminated contestant in Group 1, Emma, lost, I will be turning to a contestant from Group 2, Malik. Much like PJAE, a lot of people on IDF thought that Malik would be gone in the first cut and sure enough, he failed to make the Top 20. But we still need to take a look at the rules I made to see what Malik did right, what he did wrong (a lot) and why Malik lost. Show Singing and Performing Talent Malik had enough singing and performing talent to make it to the Top 26, but he had definite problems showing that talent. The fact that he and PJAE had to do a sing-off to figure out who would make the Top 26 only for both of them to get in anyway at the expense of someone who was going to be in until the sing-off was a early warning sign that he didn't always show his singing and performing talent even before he made this point. So how was his first time performing for our votes? He did better than PJAE, at least on IDF. Zoey, for example, gave him a 9 while TaylorKat gave him an 8 (also !). Others were more critical, like me. I gave him a 5 and said that he should've taken mentor Noah Cyrus's advice. I'll get into that more when I get to rule #7. Crisis was also rather critical, saying that Malik's voice was too smooth for "Ain't It Fun", that it lacked the sardonic bite that the original had, and that his performance needed more grit. The TooFab staff, meanwhile, noted that he kept trying to do more with his voice than he needed to, especially in the second half. All in all, Malik struggled with this rule, though at least he didn't completely strike out. Song Choice is Key Another problem that Malik had was with his song choice. Crisis earlier noted that "Ain't It Fun" had a sardonic bite with lyrics such as “don’t go cryin’ to your mama, ‘cause you’re on your own in the real world”, and Malik failed to deliver the bite needed. He should've chosen a song more suited to his smooth voice, instead of going for a song with a grit that he couldn't deliver. Thus Malik failed with this rule. Be Consistently Outstanding or Better Yet, Constantly Improve Every Week This was another problem that Malik had. He was good enough in his sing-off to make the Top 26, but then he took a step back with his Top 26 performance. This was even more vital because he didn't have much exposure before the Showstopper round. Thus he fouled up with this rule as well. Have the Confidence to Believe That You Belong This was one area where I think that Malik did well in, or at. least did well enough in that it didn't cause him to lose. I never really saw Malik struggle with confidence during his run on the show. Unfortunately, it didn't save him from elimination, but at least he did well enough with this rule so I'll move on. Know Who You Are As An Artist I do think that Malik might have had some problems knowing who he was as an artist. While Crisis noted that he was able to arrange his song in a way that suited his voice, the TooFab staff pointed out that he kept trying to show off his voice when he didn't need to. This indicates that he might not be experienced enough in his artistry to restrain his voice properly. Thus Malik stumbled on this rule as well. Remember: You Are a Package This was another rule that Malik had trouble with. He wasn't a country singer. He wasn't a rock singer. He had an outstanding voice, but he didn't know how to use it properly. And he had very little exposure coming into the Top 26, thanks in part to his audition being a song that ABC just couldn't air between 8 and 10 pm. Thus Malik struck out with this rule as well. Take Any Advice Offered To You And Follow It Malik had some problems with this rule as well. He was able to take Noah Cyrus's advice to rein in his tendency to do too many runs and notes in the first half, but after that point he apparently couldn't resist doing only big runs and notes at the very end. So Malik definitely had problems with this rule as well. Gather a Fan Base -- And Sustain It This was the final rule that Malik failed to follow. He couldn't appeal to country fans like Colin or Marybeth could. He wasn't featured much before the Top 26. He needed to come out and hit a home run. Instead, he had a performance that got mixed reviews, which wasn't nearly enough. So Malik screwed up this rule as well. Malik had a lot of strikes against him. He wasn't country. He wasn't featured much before the Top 26 reveal. And while he could be a vocal powerhouse, he didn't know how to use his voice properly. Still, he could have managed to survive this round had he chosen a song that had lyrics which would suit his smooth voice, and had he been better able to rein in his tendency to show off his voice too much. He failed in both areas, and paid the price. And that is why Malik lost.

Even if Iam really performed “Because You Loved Me” (which I highly doubt), he has enough fans to save him this week. But I think that Iam’s song choice, at least, is just a prank. BTW, what is “One Night Only” like?

Agreed.

Good point.

No but she is a country singer, and that got her past Elise and Emma. But she has too big a hill to climb in the Top 20 round.

I too think that Olivia should take a step back from Celine, Mariah and Whitney songs and do something like “Let It Be” or “Imagine.”

Olivia performed later and I thought she did a better job with her song than Elise did. Also, Olivia's audition wasn't montaged like Elise's was.

Earlier today, I analyzed why PJAE had his American Idol journey come to a totally expected early end. But there are still five contestants who also saw their Idol journey come to an early end. One of them was Elise Kristine. She was in the same group as PJAE and she sang "Holding Out For a Hero", but the hero didn't come to help her get into the Top 20, as she was also cut from the competition. But if PJAE's elimination was totally expected, Elise's wasn't. Yet if we look at her journey on the show and look at my rules that the American Idol Season 21 contestants need to follow, we can see why Elise lost. Show Singing and Performing Talent Elise had more than enough singing talent to make the Top 26, and enough performing talent to get there as well. But how did she do when it came to showing that talent? She actually did better than PJAE, both vocally and performance wise. And at least the people who rated her song on the IDF boards thought she did better than not only PJAE, but also Haven and Mariah. For example, I gave her a 7 while giving Haven a 5 and Mariah 5.5, and I called it a good performance. But there were more critical voices out there. Crisis thought that she began rather shaky with a heavy vibrato which was chalked up to nerves; but later on, Crisis thought she settled in and gave some good stage presence. Too Fab was even more critical, putting her ahead of only PJAE, as they thought it took her about a third of the song to really get into it and be terrific. In all, I think that Elise was partly successful with this rule -- she had the voice, but the performance skills needed some work. Song Choice is Key One definite problem that Elise had was her song choice. Crisis noted that it was a challenging song and one of the people on IDF who rated the song thought that it was too cheesy. Had Elise done a less cheesy song, she might have survived and I might have been writing about why Mariah was eliminated instead. So Elise probably failed in this rule. Be Consistently Outstanding or Better Yet, Constantly Improve Every Week This was another problem that Elise had. She was excellent in her Showstopper performance but FloorWax was expecting more and Elise apparently took a couple of steps back -- not many but enough to cost her, especially since her audition was only montaged. So Elise stumbled with this rule as well. Have the Confidence to Believe That You Belong This was another rule that I believe Elise failed at. The Too Fab staff said that she could make a huge impact if she kept growing in confidence. That said, I don't think she was as bad with confidence as say, Megan or Colin. But they were featured more than Elise was, so they have more time to grow in confidence. Elise didn't have as much time, and thus she struggled with this rule. Know Who You Are As An Artist I do think that Elise might have had some problems knowing who he was as an artist. She has a powerful voice, but having a powerful voice isn't enough any more. Look at Warren. He doesn't have the vocal pipes to compete with Elise, but he knows who he is as an artist. I don't think that Elise knew who she was other than a singer with a big voice and thus screwed this rule up. Remember: You Are a Package This was another rule that Elise had trouble with. She wasn't a country singer. She wasn't a rock singer. She just had an outstanding voice, but she didn't know how to package it. And there was a reason why she was only montaged during the auditions. Her package was too plain. So Elise fouled up with this rule. Take Any Advice Offered To You And Follow It At least, Elise was able to take the advice that Allan Stone gave her and follow it. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough to save her, so I'll move on. Gather a Fan Base -- And Sustain It This was the final rule that Elise failed to follow. She wasn't a country singer like Mariah. She wasn't a rock singer. She had an outstanding voice, but so did a number of girls who had better packages than she did. And she didn't get as much exposure as some of the other girls who had powerful voices, being only montaged. Thus Elise struck out with this rule as well. Elise had definite problems going into the Top 26. She had a powerful voice, but didn't know how to package it or know what her artistic identity was. This is probably why she was only montaged, and that put her behind the 8-ball when compared to contestants who were as confident or less confident than her, such as Megan and Colin (who are in Group 2). But she could have made the Top 20, especially since her Showstopper performance was awesome. Unfortunately, she made a questionable song choice and worse, she performed first in the evening, which meant that she was at risk of being forgotten by the end of the show. As a result, she lost some of her momentum from the Showstopper round at the worst possible time, and couldn't regain it in time. And that is why Elise lost.

I'd love to hear Olivia do "Let It Be" too!