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18 hours ago, RWG said:

Voters seem to just be handing out majorities during the pandemic, but if the virus is the only criterion, the governments in east coast provinces are the only ones that have at least done, like, a B-ish level job with it.

 

I don't know very much about Atlantic Canada politics, other than that there is supposedly less daylight between the parties than elsewhere (eg., the conservative party is barely conservative?).

 

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I don't understand why the general reaction to this poll is dismayal. Is it that hard to believe that maybe Singh has been an effective critic of the government's handling of the pandemic, and is actually suggesting things people might find helpful right now? 

 

 


Provincial Conservatism in Atlantic Canada is definitely a lot closer to the old Red-Tory PC party than the current Federal CPC. I can vote PC knowing very well that there's no hidden agenda against things like same sex marriage or abortions.

The federal NDP have been polling very well recently, I believe all polls that have them over 20%. I do take leader net approval with a grain of salt though, as the leader of the 3rd party usually does sit highest in favourability. It's easy to be seen as likable when you don't really have to make tough decisions that the other two parties do.

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^ New Brunswick should be the envy of all other provinces (along with PEI of course). You two have done an incredible job.

Rex Murphy is the worst thing to come out of Newfoundland. From my experience people who buy into the no racism in Canada thing are indeed white rural folks who live in predominantly white areas. T

I'd just like to say, I appreciate Canadian politics more than ever right now. 

On 1/16/2021 at 7:28 PM, ButterflyEffect said:

It's easy to be seen as likable when you don't really have to make tough decisions that the other two parties do.

For sure. NDP are always platforming on giant promises like pharmacare, dental care, child care, etc. But they never actually have to pony up to it because they aren't taking office. They have no real budgeting plans for any of their promises. Either they'd fail to meet any of them, or we'd have year over year deficits matching what's been spent this past year.

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Welp, here comes a good litmus test of calling an election in the middle of a pandemic, followed by a massive COVID outbreak during the campaign. Premier Furey might be one lucky son of a bitch that a lot of people have already voted in advanced & mail-in ballots. Not many people are happy right now.

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On 1/30/2021 at 9:44 AM, Shadetee said:

For sure. NDP are always platforming on giant promises like pharmacare, dental care, child care, etc. But they never actually have to pony up to it because they aren't taking office. They have no real budgeting plans for any of their promises. Either they'd fail to meet any of them, or we'd have year over year deficits matching what's been spent this past year.

 

Budgets need to be assessed as a whole, but explaining how to fund these individual line items is not really that difficult. Something like pharmacare (say $10-20 billion) can reasonably be funded with a combination of coporate and personal taxes, the latter of which is sellable to a population that would itself be getting a net savings on prescriptions.

 

Incidentally, I don't think the NDP actually believes in programs like pharmacare morally, at least in its current inception, but for any hypothetical party forming government, individually, these kinds of programs aren't pie-in-the-sky reveries.

 

On 2/9/2021 at 6:42 PM, ButterflyEffect said:

Welp, here comes a good litmus test of calling an election in the middle of a pandemic, followed by a massive COVID outbreak during the campaign. Premier Furey might be one lucky son of a bitch that a lot of people have already voted in advanced & mail-in ballots. Not many people are happy right now.

 

Is it the position of people still outraged at "calling an election in the middle of a pandemic" that all elections must cease until the pandemic is over? Even now that we know the virus will probably be with us in some capacity for years if not decades? I could get it if a minority gov't were calling an election in March/April 2020, but we're a year into this now, and elections are pretty easy to do safely, and they're pretty important! They're almost as important as things like hockey games, which we've resumed because people need it for their mental health.

 

I don't know anything about Newfoundland's premier, perhaps he is awful and deserves to be voted out anyways, but that's hilarious if it ends up being over a "surge" of 50-something cases in day, which is an outstanding daily number for pretty much every province to its west.

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7 hours ago, RWG said:

Is it the position of people still outraged at "calling an election in the middle of a pandemic" that all elections must cease until the pandemic is over? Even now that we know the virus will probably be with us in some capacity for years if not decades? I could get it if a minority gov't were calling an election in March/April 2020, but we're a year into this now, and elections are pretty easy to do safely, and they're pretty important! They're almost as important as things like hockey games, which we've resumed because people need it for their mental health.

 

I don't know anything about Newfoundland's premier, perhaps he is awful and deserves to be voted out anyways, but that's hilarious if it ends up being over a "surge" of 50-something cases in day, which is an outstanding daily number for pretty much every province to its west.


Right now it comes down to the fact that he had to call an election before August, and could have done so in early summer when more people were vaccinated. People aren't stupid, they know why he called an election. There's an economic report coming in a few weeks that outlines a path forward for the government, which is going to be full of cuts and layoffs. The Liberals want their majority government before that report drops since they want to implement it and survive the backlash. 

This outbreak is pretty much confined to the St. John's metro region. Yesterday there were 85 new cases, for a population of around 220,000 people. Just a few days ago there were 0 cases, so unfortunately we're still in the "explosive growth" part of this wave; those numbers are expected to continue growing. There are thousands of people in self-isolation with no way to vote now. Advanced voting and mail-in ballots were all required to be done before either party had even announced their platform. The kicker being it seems like the government didn't even try and tackle any of these "what ifs", we're faced with a major issue and no one has an answer. It's sort of strange that you call an election during a pandemic and have nothing in place should, you know, the pandemic impact the election.

Right now everyone is just fingerpointing at everyone else. The Premier says there's nothing he can do, the chief medical officer says there's nothing she can do, the chief electoral officer is saying there's nothing he can do, but all of them are point at each other saying that the other person can delay the election if they wanted to. The chef electoral officer says they can't have the election since they're understaffed (full returns offices are closed due to employees needing to self-isolate). We're going to find out today I think what's going to happen.

Basically with how the situation in the St. John's metro region is playing out right now, with the beginning of the second wave starting, and wide-spread exposure resulting in thousands of people being in self isolation, this is essentially the equivalent of calling an election in March/April 2020. 

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14 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said:


Right now it comes down to the fact that he had to call an election before August, and could have done so in early summer when more people were vaccinated. People aren't stupid, they know why he called an election. There's an economic report coming in a few weeks that outlines a path forward for the government, which is going to be full of cuts and layoffs. The Liberals want their majority government before that report drops since they want to implement it and survive the backlash. 

This outbreak is pretty much confined to the St. John's metro region. Yesterday there were 85 new cases, for a population of around 220,000 people. Just a few days ago there were 0 cases, so unfortunately we're still in the "explosive growth" part of this wave; those numbers are expected to continue growing. There are thousands of people in self-isolation with no way to vote now. Advanced voting and mail-in ballots were all required to be done before either party had even announced their platform. The kicker being it seems like the government didn't even try and tackle any of these "what ifs", we're faced with a major issue and no one has an answer. It's sort of strange that you call an election during a pandemic and have nothing in place should, you know, the pandemic impact the election.

Right now everyone is just fingerpointing at everyone else. The Premier says there's nothing he can do, the chief medical officer says there's nothing she can do, the chief electoral officer is saying there's nothing he can do, but all of them are point at each other saying that the other person can delay the election if they wanted to. The chef electoral officer says they can't have the election since they're understaffed (full returns offices are closed due to employees needing to self-isolate). We're going to find out today I think what's going to happen.

Basically with how the situation in the St. John's metro region is playing out right now, with the beginning of the second wave starting, and wide-spread exposure resulting in thousands of people being in self isolation, this is essentially the equivalent of calling an election in March/April 2020. 

 

Yeah, that is kind of a mess given some of those details. It still feels like if Newfoundland hadn't have done as good a job with the virus to this point, doing an election now wouldn't seem like that big of a deal, but I guess it's mostly academic.


Since November i'm in a city with a metro population of about 400,000, on an island with about 900k people. There's relatively low spread compared to the rest of the province, but in a way I'm sort of glad there is at least some. Reporting a "0" day after day feels like a recipe for disaster.

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22 hours ago, RWG said:

 

Yeah, that is kind of a mess given some of those details. It still feels like if Newfoundland hadn't have done as good a job with the virus to this point, doing an election now wouldn't seem like that big of a deal, but I guess it's mostly academic.


Since November i'm in a city with a metro population of about 400,000, on an island with about 900k people. There's relatively low spread compared to the rest of the province, but in a way I'm sort of glad there is at least some. Reporting a "0" day after day feels like a recipe for disaster.


Things were definitely going well, so initially the call for an election didn't raise too many eyebrows. The fact that no one prepared for the exact situation we're in now though, that's absolutely insane.

The election has been somewhat suspended. Yesterday it was announced that polling was suspended in 18 districts (basically St. John's and surrounding areas) until a later date, but tonight the entire in-person voting for the election has been suspended as the province has now gone into complete lockdown. Mail-in voting is officially the only way to vote now as they're not re-opening in-person voting stations. 

When the ashes have cooled and this wave is over, there will be hell to pay. The first thing people will have to answer is how its unconstitutional for how the current election is going to take place. The proper path for cancelling a election weren't followed. 

Anyway, I've applied to be sent my mail-in ballot. 

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NL election results will be released to the public on Saturday at noon. Still countless reports of people who had requested ballots who still haven't received them, despite them needing to be returned by March 12th. Unreal, though I'm happy the first part of this nightmare will soon be over.

I'm doing an in-depth, 40-seat analysis for another website which I'll post here before the results are made public. 

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9 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said:

NL election results will be released to the public on Saturday at noon. Still countless reports of people who had requested ballots who still haven't received them, despite them needing to be returned by March 12th. Unreal, though I'm happy the first part of this nightmare will soon be over.

I'm doing an in-depth, 40-seat analysis for another website which I'll post here before the results are made public. 

giphy.gif 

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10 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said:

NL election results will be released to the public on Saturday at noon. Still countless reports of people who had requested ballots who still haven't received them, despite them needing to be returned by March 12th. Unreal, though I'm happy the first part of this nightmare will soon be over.

I'm doing an in-depth, 40-seat analysis for another website which I'll post here before the results are made public. 

Also why release the results when we already know the winner! :giggle: 

 

NLX80ir.jpg 

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Another Big Election Fumble in NL
 

Elections NL is looking at what mechanisms are available to register their vote after four people registered their vote by phone only to learn that it is not legally authorized.
 

Elections NL was notified of issues with four electors’ special ballot kits as the result of an administrative error.
 

One of the voters affected told VOCM News his kit did not include a ballot.
 

Chief Electoral Officer, Bruce Chaulk decided to take the votes by phone in an effort to help.
 

The vote was conducted modelling British Columbia’s telephone voting process, and an official with Elections NL confirmed the identity of the voter while a second official recorded the vote.
 

Elections NL received legal advice today indicating that telephone voting is not authorized.
 

The four voters are now being contacted to determine what, if any, mechanisms are available to allow them to exercise their right to vote in accordance with the existing legislation.

 

https://vocm.com/2021/03/24/another-big-election-fumble-in-nl/

Of course that doesn't mean that there isn't time for one more big screw up.

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Map is a re-colour of Kyle Hutton's 2019 results https://twitter.com/kylejhutton?langhttps://twitter.com/kylejhutton?lang=en=en

Seat Count
LIB: 24 (+5)
PC: 11 (-4)
NDP: 3 (0)
IND: 2 (-1)

Result: Liberal MAJORITY GOVERNMENT

RIDING ANALYSIS

1 Torngat Mountains

LIB: Devon Ryan
PC: Lela Evans (INC)
NDP: Patricia Johnson-Castle

Prediction: Lean Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: In 2019 I predicted this as an “easy Liberal hold”, which goes to show how unpredictable Labrador can be. Even more so Torngat, which has a pretty small population base. This time around I feel more comfortable in my prediction here being correct; Lela Evans is an extremely popular candidate up against a young, parachute Liberal staffer. There already has been quite the controversy surrounding Mr. Ryan’s place on the ticket in the district, which certainly does him no favours. The Liberals may be polling very well provincially, but it won’t help him here. The NDP have run a very strong candidate in the district, but I don’t think she’ll be able to get the job done.

District bold (or not so bold) prediction: The Liberals finish a distant 3rd in vote share in this district.


2 Labrador West

LIB: Wayne Button
PC: Nick McGrath
NDP: Jordan Brown (NDP)

Prediction: Toss-up New Democrat hold

Comments: I don’t think anyone saw the upset coming in the 2019 election, especially considering how badly the NDP appeared hurting during the campaign. While I don’t expect quite as close of a squeaker this time around, I’m not certain who will come out on top in Lab West. This is truly a tossup and could go either way, and I want to think that the Liberals take it based on polling numbers alone. However, much like Evans, it seems like Brown is well liked. I’ll lean NDP hold but it could just as easily be a Liberal gain.

District bold (or not so bold) prediction: This district is decided by 4% or under.


3 Lake Melville

LIB: Michelle Baikie
PC: Shannon Tobin
NDP: Amy Norman
IND: Perry Trimper (INC)
IND: Andrew Abbass

Prediction: Toss-up Liberal GAIN

Comments: This is a tough one as well, and honestly is probably the PC’s best chance at a Labrador gain as Tobin did fairly well in 2019. Also likely the NDP’s best chance at a Labrador gain. Trimper himself has a decent chance to win, despite literally everything that he’s been through in the past 1+ years. Baikie isn’t the strongest Liberal candidate, in fact she may be one of the weakest, however I think general Liberal support will push her over the finish line.

District bold (or not so bold) prediction: No candidate will receive over 40% of the vote in this district.


4 Cartright – L’Anse au Clair

LIB: Lisa Dempster (INC)
PC: Joshua Nolan

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: One of the safest Liberal seats in the province. This riding has only elected a non-Liberal candidate twice: The Labrador Party in 1972, and an Independent Yvonne Jones in 1996. The PC’s couldn’t even crack 28% of the vote during the height of the Danny Williams days. This is a straight copy-paste from 2019; nothing has changed since then, even though the PC candidate had a “strong” showing (relative to this district) in 2019, despite them being booted from the PC ticket due to their socially-conservative views.

District bold (or not so bold) prediction: Lisa Depmster will receive over 85% of the vote in this district.


5 St. Barbe-L’Anse Aux Meadows

LIB: Krista Howell
PC: Shelia Fitzgerald
NDP: John McClusky
IND: Ford Mitchelmore

Prediction: Lean Liberal hold

Comments: One of two “up for grabs” seats, with no incumbent MHA running due to Chris Mitchelmore choosing to leave politics. While this district is like the PC’s best chance at making any gains in Western/Northern NL, I would consider those chances to be faint at best. Fitzgerald ran in the 2019 election, receiving 36% of the vote, when the PCs were polling a heck of a lot better than they are now. The Liberals not winning this district would be signs of major trouble.

District bold prediction: Confusion regarding the last name “Mitchelmore” will net Independent candidate Ford Mitchelmore over 5% of the vote.


6 Humber-Gros Morne

LIB: Andrew Furey (INC)
PC: Jim Goudie
NDP: Sheina Lerman

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: Liberals polling very well? Check. Furey winning his seat in a by-election in dominating fashion? Check. Nothing to see here, make this your free space for your NL election bingo card.

District bold (or not so bold) prediction: Andrew Furey outperforms his 2020 by-election results by over 5%.


7 Humber-Bay of Islands

LIB: Stelman Flynn
PC: Robert Marche
IND: Eddie Joyce (INC)

Prediction: Safe Independent hold

Comments: Last cycle I doubted Eddie Joyce, despite plenty of people telling me otherwise. I thought that party politics would outweigh personal politics like it has done so many times before. Then I saw the power of Eddie Joyce. I won’t make the same mistake twice. I wonder if Sherri Gambin-Walsh loses her seat whether he could be enticed back into the Liberal party.

District bold (or not so bold) prediction: Joyce will capture over 70% of the vote


8 Stephenville-Port aux Port

LIB: Kevin Aylward
PC: Tony Wakeham (INC)
NDP: Jamie Ruby

Prediction: Lean Liberal GAIN

Comments: I do pride myself on calling this district correctly in 2019, when I think most people would have predicted a Liberal hold. Let us see if we can go 2/2 here…..while Wakeham is still a popular guy, Kevin Aylward is a STRONG Liberal candidate, and former MHA for the district. Honestly, if the Liberals were running some random candidate I’d call this a PC hold, however Liberal popularity + Kevin Aylward track record in the district will get it done. That being said, I don’t think this will be a blowout.

District bold prediction: In 2019 this district was decided by just 0.6% of the vote. I’m predicting margins will be even tighter this time.


9 Corner Brook

LIB: Gerry Byrne (INC)
PC: Tom Stewart

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: Former MP, highly popular politician, current cabinet minister. No contest. Basically, the exact same thing I had in my 2019 prediction, though this election this is basically a 1 vs. 1 match-up. The NDP do fairly well in Corner Brook, so it was a massive loss to them having their candidate step down over topics that all party members should disclose to each other before putting their name on a ticket. Anyway, the 15-20% of the vote which the NDP would have captured, depending on how it splits, will either make this race a blowout, or closer than expected, though this is a safe win for Byrne no matter what.

District bold (or not so bold) prediction: The NDP vote? It splits almost 50/50 between both candidates.


10 St. Georges-Humber

LIB: Scott Reid (INC)
PC: Gary Bishop
NDP: Melissa Samms
NLA: Shane Snook

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: Scott Reid is very well liked, and while the old districts which made up current day St. George’s-Humber were a little unpredictable, I can’t in good conscious predict anything crazy happening here against a popular Liberal government AND a popular MHA, in the middle of the NL Liberal castle that is the west coast.

District bold (or not so bold) prediction: In 2019 there was a 26 point swing towards the PCs in this district. In this election there will be a 26 point swing back towards the Liberals.


11 Burgeo-La Poile

LIB: Scott Andrews (INC)
PC: Ethan Wheeler-Park
NDP: Judy Vanta

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: Another extremely safe Liberal district. The last time a PC was elected here was back in 1985. Yes, they weathered the entire Danny Williams era without electing someone to his government. Ches Crosbie won’t be able to dethrone Scott Andrews.

District bold (or not so bold prediction): Scott Andrews wins this district with over 90% of the vote.


12 Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune

LIB: Elvis Loveless
PC: Charlene Walsh
NDP: Noel Joe

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: Another rematch from 2019, this time with NDP candidate Noel Joe also being involved. In 2019, with no NDP candidate, the communities near St. Albans and Conne River overwhelmingly voted PC, with the rest of the district (like Harbour Breton) voting Liberal. This time around, the NDP candidate hails from Conne River. While I don’t expect the entire pocket to overwhelmingly vote NDP, I do suspect they will siphon enough votes to not make this a close race.

District bold prediction: In a bright spot for the NDP and their rural candidates, their candidate is able to pull over 10% of the vote.


13 Grand Falls Windsor-Buchans

LIB: Deborah Ball
PC: Chris Tibbs (INC)
NDP: Holly Pike

Prediction: Toss-up Liberal GAIN

Comments: In my 2019 prediction, I said “this is where it gets interesting for both parties”. Well hold on everyone, because I’m saying it again. THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING FOR BOTH PARTIES. This is truly, in my opinion, the very definition of a toss-up. There’s no doubt that this is a must have district for both parties. PC support, as per the regional polling data from Mainstreet (WARNING: high degree of uncertainty due to small sample numbers, but still worth weighing) is highest in “Rest of Newfoundland”, which is basically any part of the island that’s not on the Avalon Peninsula. Where is that situated exactly? The PCs are going to hope this is one of those places. In 2019 Tibbs won all but two (and tied one) of the polls in Grand Falls-Windsor, the major population centre of the district. He will need to do that again to win. Historically, this district tends to side with the governing party (exceptions: 2019, and sometime in the 90s). Plus there’s been some silly controversy regarding Tibbs and his campaign. I think he’s going to fall victim to the wide-spread Liberal support.

Bold district prediction: This district is decided by a margin of less than 3%.


14 Baie Verte-Green Bay

LIB: Brian Warr (INC)
PC: Lin Paddock

Prediction: Toss-up Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: A traditionally PC district that went Liberal in the 2015 election and stayed there in 2019. If you’re looking for a fun fact for this district, the PC’s held onto power here for 11 years between 1980 and 1991, and then gave it up for 2 years (ie 1 election cycle), and then flipped back to the PCs in 1993 and held it for 22 years. I predicted a PC win here in 2019 based on those historical numbers, however the end-result wasn’t even close, though it was worth noting that the Alliance candidate did very strong and did siphon off vote from traditional PC-leaning communities. If you’ve been following my social media analysis throughout the 2021 campaign, you know I’ve pointed out both the very strong online momentum for Lin Paddock, and absolute dead-in-the-water momentum for Brian Warr. Could it all be meaningless? Absolutely. But history along with those numbers is leaning me to this conclusion again.

District bold prediction: Isn’t my main prediction for this district bold enough?


15 Exploits

LIB: Rodney Mercer
PC: Pleaman Forsey (IND)

Prediction: Toss-up Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: Pleaman Forsey’s win in 2019 was one of the more dominating victories for the PC outside their stronghold. Does the Forsey name get him through another election? It’s worth noting that an independent candidate had a very strong performance in 2019, taking in 17% of the vote. Now when there’s only two candidates on the ballot where do those 17% of voters turn this election? I think Forsey gets it done, but a lot tighter margin this time.

District bold prediction: The margin of victory is so small here that it will end up being recounted ala. Labrador West in 2019.


16 Lewisporte-Twillingate

LIB: Derek Bennett (INC)
PC: Rhonda Simms

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: Lewisporte-Twilingate, and the previous district of Lewisporte, are both somewhat close to being a bellweather district. There have been a couple of notable exceptions, however for the most part this district has voted with the forming government since the 1960s. The fact that I’m picking the Liberals to win here should probably say a lot about who I think is going to win this one.

District bold prediction: Derek Bennett has received 54% of the vote in both elections he has won. I say he gets the three-peat and finished with 54% of the vote again.


17 Fogo Island-Cape Freels

LIB: Derrick Bragg (INC)
PC: Sue Collins
NDP: Jim Gill

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: A strong Liberal district, this is where Joey Smallwood ran (and got elected) under the NL Reform Liberal Party. The PC’s coming in here and flipping the district without an overwhelming tide of change backing it would be a huge warning sign to the Liberal party. This is the same prediction as 2019, as the addition of an NDP candidate isn’t going to change my feelings about this district.

District bold prediction: Lets show the NDP some love. The NDP have only ever received more than 3% of the vote once in this district, which was in 2011 during the doomed Liberal campaign (which surprisingly almost won this district, they were within 6%). The NDP will be able to get above 3% this election.


18 Gander

LIB: John Haggie (INC)
PC: Jamie Harnum
NDP: Dawn Lahey

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: There’s not much to say here. Dr. Haggie has seemed to benefit the most out of any politician for improving their public image during the COVID-19 pandemic. Dr. Haggie was already a fairly popular politician in the district, and that’s grown by quite a mile in the last year. There’s no competition here.

Bold district prediction: John Haggie will win this district with over 80% of the vote.


19 Bonavista

LIB: Christine Gill
PC: Craig Pardy (INC)
NDP: Timothy Whea
IND: Neil King

Prediction: Toss-up Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: Another PC stronghold district that flipped back to the PCs after a brief Liberal reign 2015-2019. The Liberals are going to kick themselves in the butt over this district….with strong polling numbers, all they needed was a strong to decent candidate to run and it would have been theirs. Instead, they have a “name-on-a-ballot” nominee, while someone who could have won for them, the previous Liberal MHA Neil King, was rejected. This campaign’s social media game has been horrible to say the least, and I feel like whoever wins this will limp to victory. Giving the nod to the incumbent here but Gill could win based on general Liberal party strength. I wonder how badly Neil King siphons votes off of all parties; I think he’s going to do dang well on election day.

Bold district prediction: In 2019 this district was decided by under 1% of the vote. I won’t say it’ll be that close again this time around, but I’ll say that it’ll be less than 2% this time around.


20 Terra Nova

LIB: Steve Denty
PC: Lloyd Parrott (INC)
NDP: Anne Marie Anonsen

Prediction: Toss-up Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: This is another tough one for me to call. By all accounts, Parrott is well liked in his district, however Terra Nova feels like one of those districts that could fall to the Liberal wave of support. The only reason why I’m hesitant to call this a flipped district is because in 2015, when the Liberals had much higher support than is predicted they currently have, the Liberals won this district by only 0.9%. If the Liberals finish election day at 65% total support or higher this will definitely be a district they flip, but below that the water gets murky. I think this is a district which I’ll be thinking about and want to flip 100 times between now and election day, but we’ll keep it as a toss-up towards a PC hold for now.

Bold district prediction: Once again, this district will be decided by under 1% of the vote.


21 Placentia West-Bellevue

LIB: Sam Synard
PC: Jeff Dwyer (INC)
NDP: Carolyn Davis

Prediction: Lean Liberal GAIN

Comments: This will be a showcase of what a good candidate can get you. I think if the Liberals had run any other person as their nominee here and this is a PC hold. Instead, their running the mayor of Marystown, the largest population centre in the district. Synard has dipped his toes into politics a few times before, and while he wasn’t overly successful, he has had quite a bit of support. If Marystown votes for Sam, and I think they will, then he wins.

Bold district prediction: Sam Synard wins at least 90% of the polls in Marystown.


22 Burin-Grand Bank

LIB: Paul Pike
PC: Fred Dodge
NDP: Alvin Banfield

Prediction: Lean Liberal hold

Comments: In 2019 this was one of the closest races between two “star candidates”. Compared to that, this race is a bit of a snooze. None of the candidates are overly strong. Advantage goes to the Liberals, who I think will perform much better here than they did in 2019. If the PCs want to prevent the Liberals from forming a majority government, this this is the first district they need to flip.

Bold district prediction: Paul Pike is able to capture the majority of polls in St. Lawrence, which really pushes the scale in his direction com election day.


23 Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde

LIB: Steve Croker (INC)
PC: Frank Butt
NDP: Matthew Smith
IND: Edward Thomas Cole

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: This is a district which tends to shift with the political tide, voting for the governing party in every election since 1982 (and a by-election in 2014 predicted the actual results of the 2015 election). Crocker is well liked, and did very well in both 2015 and 2019 elections. This area of the island does lean heavily Liberal in Federal politics, which also bodes well for Crocker here. Unless a change in government is going to surprise us come election day, which is very unlikely, this is a safe hold.

District bold prediction: In 2015 Crocker won this district with 85% of the vote. He is able to achieve these monstrous numbers once again in 2021.


24 Harbour Grace-Port de Grave

LIB: Pam Parsons (INC)
PC: Roy Sparkes
NDP: Dion Hynes

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: Fairly strong Liberal district that came surprisingly close to flipping in 2019. That being said, the PC’s aren’t nearly as strong this time around, so I’m not anticipating any surprises here.

District bold prediction: In 2019 there was an 11% swing towards the PCs in this district. This time in 2021 there will be an 11% swing back towards the Liberals.


25 Harbour Main

LIB: George Murphy
PC: Helen Conway-Ottenheimer (INC)
NLA: Anthony Chadwick

Prediction: Toss-up Liberal GAIN

Comments: Helen Conway-Ottenheimer could very well survive this election based on her name recognition alone. I have no idea how popular or liked she is in her district, though I’m certain her last name could get her far. The problem with this is that the Liberals are running a very popular candidate in George Murphy, and I think that alone is able to get the job done here, especially considering the Liberals are supposedly polling extremely well on the Avalon peninsula. This could honestly go either way, but I’ll lean towards riding the red wave in this district.

District bold prediction: Even in 2015 when the Liberals did extremely well, they only won this district by around 5%. I suspect if they were to win this district it will be under half of that, or by 2.5%.


26 Placentia-St. Mary’s

LIB: Sherry Gambin-Walsh (INC)
PC: Calvin Manning
NDP: Clem Whittle

Prediction: Toss-up Progressive Conservative GAIN

Comments: Let’s just say that the past two years have not been good to Gambin-Walsh. In 2019 I predicted this district to flip, though I second guessed myself near the end of the campaign and for good reason. Calvin Manning is a popular candidate, and I think that along with the troubles for Sherry Gambin-Walsh that this could be a flip that the PC’s internally think they can get. If I’m wrong AGAIN on this district then from here on out I’ll put a lot more faith into Sherry Gambin-Walsh than I have been the past few years.

District bold prediction: Gambin-Walsh will receive under 35% of the vote on election day.


27 Ferryland

LIB: Cheryl O’Brien
PC: Loyola O’Driscoll (INC)
IND: Paul Murphy

Prediction: Lean Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: Cheryl O’Brien has turned quite a few heads on the campaign trail, so much so that there are people who think she could do what only two other people have done since confederation, and that’s win the district as a Liberal. While I won’t be as so bold as to call something like that, this district will likely tell us the temperature of the election. If O’Brien comes out victorious then the Liberals have likely won every PC district to the west on Ferryland, and could become insanely close to a full sweep. Ultimately, I think she comes up close.

District bold prediction: In recent memory (or for as far back as Wikipedia has results for) the closest the Liberals have come to winning this district is in 2015, when Jeff Marshall came up 8.8% short. I think that O’Brien gets closer than anyone else has since 1953, and comes within 5% of O’Driscoll in popular vote.


28 Conception Bay South

LIB: Shelley Moores
PC: Barry Petten (INC)
NDP: Andrew Lovell
NLA: Warrick Butler

Prediction: Lean Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: This is where things start getting challenging. I need to try and balance logic and the numbers from the very scant polling data we have. Logic dictates that this is a safe PC district, as even this was a PC gain in 2015 when the Liberals initial red wave was washing the province. Regional polling data says that the PCs are in dire trouble in their stronghold region of the St. John’s suburbs. The numbers would dictate that it’s a complete wipe-out of the PC party, but we can’t ignore previous results. The Liberals did win here in recent memory, winning a by-election in 2014, before flipping back just a year later, so logic would dictate that this could be the district the Liberals flip this election cycle, however I’m leaning towards Petten’s own personal popularity to hold the district.

District bold prediction: In 2019, NLA’s Warrick Butler received a commendable 15% of the vote. Bold prediction being that he’s able to beat that this time around, even with more candidates on the ticket.


29 Mount Pearl-Southlands

LIB: Karla Hayward
PC: Cindy Grant
NDP: Cara Krista Winsor
IND: Paul Lane (INC)

Prediction: Lean Independent hold

Comments: Last election I very much overlooked the popularity of Lane, even as an independent candidate. Nothing has changed since then, and one could argue the slate of candidates running against him this time around is much weaker than in 2019. The Liberals would love to pick up this seat as a breakthrough in the suburbs, but I don’t think the love of Paul Lane is going to disappear anytime soon.

District bold prediction: Paul Lane’s vote total is double the next closest candidate, who I expect will be Karla Hayward with the Liberal party.


30 Waterford Valley

LIB: Tom Osborne (INC)
PC: Michael Holden
NDP: Peter Young

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: One very interesting part of analyzing Newfoundland elections over the past 15 years is seeing how much urban St. John’s has changed, both federally and provincially. The once dominant conservative fortress of the urban parts of the city have completely disappeared. This has since been mirrored provincially, as conservative vote has moved outward and concentrated in the suburbs. This is a very long-winded way to say that this is a safe Liberal seat, as are most urban district minus the few the NDP have been able to cling onto.

District bold prediction: The NDP and the PC candidates will finish within 5% of each other in vote percentage.


31 Mount Pearl North

LIB: Lucy Stoyles
PC: Jim Lester (INC)
NDP: Jennifer McCreath
NLA: William Neville

Prediction: Lean Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: There have been rumblings about Jim Lester being on the hot seat here, and while polling numbers would tend to reflect that sentiment, he has one thing going for him: the candidates running against him are awfully weak. This could have been an easy Liberal pickup with a strong candidate in place, however I think the PCs are able to hold.

District bold prediction: Despite running a weak candidate, the Liberals will be able to come within 5% of the winner.


32 Topsail-Paradise

LIB: Ken Carter
PC: Paul Dinn (INC)
NLA: Kathleen Burt

Prediction: Toss-up Liberal GAIN

Comments: There has to be a surprise somewhere, right? There’s no way the polling is completely off, right? It may very well be, but sometimes we need to shoot for the moon. This is becoming an increasingly more urbanized district, and in much the same manner regarding what I said about Mount Pearl North, I think the same could apply here. This is the kind of district the Liberals need to flip, and they have a good candidate in place to have a shot. If PC numbers aren’t as dire as predicted then this will be a PC hold, but I’m leaning Liberal here.

District bold prediction: Predicting this flipping Liberal is bold eouugh.


33 Conception Bay East-Bell Island

LIB: Lynn Hammond
PC: David Brazil (INC)
NDP: Gavin Will

Prediction: Safe Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: David Brazil has held this district for nearing 10 years and has always received over 55% of the popular vote, even in the face of the Liberal red wave in 2015. Also not anticipating any change in this district unless the PC party is in absolute peril (which it could quite very well be).

District bold prediction: The closest any race has come in recent times is appx. 14% in 2011. I’m guessing we’re within 10% this time around.


34 Mount Scio

LIB: Sarah Stoodley (INC)
PC: Damian Follett
NDP: Sheilagh O’Leary
NLA: Andrea Newbury
IND: Larry Borne

Prediction: Lean Liberal hold

Comments: As I predicted in 2019, this ended up being a close race between the Liberals and PCs. This district is an odd mix of urban and suburban voters, which can greatly benefit the left-leaning parties. This time around the NDP have themselves a “star candidate” in Sheilagh O’Leary who will give the urban voters something to get excited over. The NDP are definitely eyeing this district as an urban gain for them, and I think had students been present in the area for university this year that she could have made huge gains with them. However due to the pandemic, students who would be living in the district are nowhere to be seen. Because of that I expect the Liberals to hold.

District bold predictions: Despite nearly winning the district last election cycle, the PC party will be a distant third here come election day.


35 St. John’s West

LIB: Siobhan Coady (INC)
PC: Kristina Ennis
NDP: Brenda Walsh

Prediction: Lean Liberal hold

Comments: This was a very surprising result in 2019, as the PC party came extremely close to winning despite the Liberals performing very well in the St. John’s area. I have no idea what caused the close race, whether it was dislike for Coady, or the small blue wave that was present in 2019. None the less, I’m not expecting a repeat of that this time around; the Liberals are popular and while Coady may not be as well liked as she was in the past, I can’t see her being dethroned this election cycle.

District bold prediction: The 15% swing towards the PCs in 2019 will ALL go back to the Liberals. The NDP will hold steady at 12% of the vote.


36 St. John’s Centre

LIB: Gemma Hickey
PC: Robyn LeGrow
NDP: James ‘Jim’ Dinn (INC)

Prediction: Lean New Democrat hold

Comments: The NDP has done a good job establishing this district as a lean-NDP district, and that should come as no surprise considering the demographic of the area. In 2019 I wasn’t sure if this was an NDP district because of their previous candidates, or if the party resonated with the voters. It turns out the latter was true. That being said, Gemma Hickey is very well known and has run an EXCELLENT campaign. If the NDP lose this, it won’t be of any fault of their own. If the Liberals win this, then they’re well on their way to a supermajority. I personally think they come up a little short, but anything can happen here.

District bold prediction: This one will come down to the wire, with only 2% separating Hickey and Dinn. Who will win? If we’re being bold, lets say Hickey and the Liberals.


37 St. John’s East-Quidi Vidi

LIB: John Abbott
PC: Vaughn Hammond
NDP: Allison Coffin (INC)

Prediction: Safe New Democrat hold

Comments: Remember just two years ago when we thought the NDP were so dead-in-the-water that Coffin could possibly lose this district? She ended up winning, albeit only by 10%. That’s not quite the margin of victory you want for a party leader, but that was also against a fairly strong Liberal candidate in George Murphy (who is running in Harbour Main this time). Sure, Abbott is still a good candidate, but I don’t think he’s good enough to take out the NDP party leader in a district which very favorably votes NDP.

District bold prediction: Once again Alison Coffin only wins this district by 10%, leading to questions regarding her ability to lead and grow the NDP party.


38 Virginia Waters-Pleasantville

LIB: Bernard Davis (INC)
PC: Victor Lawlor
NDP: Jenn Dion

Prediction: Safe Liberal hold

Comments: Bernard Davis is well liked and has performed well in government. His past election results have likewise been very good. Nothing to see here.

District bold prediction: Davis has won by 44 and 45% the past two elections. This time his victory comes with over 55% of the vote.


39 Windsor Lake

LIB: John Hogan
PC: Ches Crosbie (INC)
NDP: Tomas Shea

Prediction: Toss-up Liberal GAIN

Comments: To say that Ches Crosbie has lost his shine as PC party leader may be a bit of an understatement. The fact that he was nearly able to bring this party to within the grasp of victory just two years ago is amazing. Since then, his desirability had nose-dived, and his party is well down in the polls. The fact that they weren’t able to capitalize on the snafu that has been this election is downright mindboggling, and it all starts at the top. Crosbie has a lot of things working against him here, unpopular leader of an unpopular party, in an urban district which trending to the left, and in an urban district which he has never won by more than 10% even at the height of his popularity. The writing is on the wall here, Crosbie is done.

District bold prediction: A party leader, and leader of the opposition losing their seat is more than bold enough.


40 Cape St. Francis

LIB: Peter Whittle
PC: Jodey Wall
NDP: Phyllis Fleming
NLA: Ryan Lane

Prediction: Safe Progressive Conservative hold

Comments: The STRONGEST PC district in the province. This district has NEVER elected any other party since its formation in 1966. The day a Liberal gets elected in this district is the day that hell freezes over. I don’t think that day is this Saturday. I will continue to use this as my overview for this district until hell actually freezes over.

District bold prediction: There's nothing bold to say here really lol.

TOTALS:
LIB 24 (+5)
PC 11 (-4)
NDP: 3 (0)
IND: 2 (-1)

DISTRICTS TO WATCH
- Lake Melville
- Exploits
- Baie Verte-Green Bay
- Bonavista
- Placentia-St. Mary’s
- Ferryland
- Winsor Lake
- Mount Scio

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9 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said:



39 Windsor Lake

LIB: John Hogan

 

Wait a second...

 

Party leaders not winning their ridings is extremely funny. It happened to Christy Clark in 2013, on the night she was theoretically re-elected premier.

Edited by RWG
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9 hours ago, RWG said:

 

Wait a second...

 

Party leaders not winning their ridings is extremely funny. It happened to Christy Clark in 2013, on the night she was theoretically re-elected premier.


It's happened here quite a few times in recent memory, notably former NDP leader Earl McCurdy in 2015 and former Liberal leader Kevin Aylward in 2011. Crosbie represents a tough district with a swinging electorate and a very good (albeit young) Liberal candidate running against him. Crosbie could pull it off of course, but there's even concern within the PC party itself that Crosbie could lose his seat. No matter what happens today, unless the PCs win an election out of thin air, Crosbie's time as leader is over.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Starting to think the Liberals might not want to use their handling of the pandemic as their basis for re-election.

Edited by RWG
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