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ButterflyEffect
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^ NDP are going to support the Liberals so I'd say an immediate election is unlikely. The federal government is currently on borrowed time though, I can see the spring shaping up to be a good time for an election. Either the Liberals see the opportunity to get a majority mandate or the Conservatives see the opportunity to win an election and the NDP see opportunity to increase their seat count. Since polling is all over the place right now I'm not sure the Liberals will feel comfortable calling an election unless they see consistent polling which shows them up big in Ontario. Being up only 1-2 points in Ontario will only do them harm.

As for BC, very interesting so far. I think Horgan might be sweating a little....things so far look a bit too close for comfort. Some polls show the NDP up big, but those polls also show the BC Conservative party around 10%. We all know that wont happen election day, and if 9% out of that 10 vote Liberal things will end up being super tight. I do think the NDP will win, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't get a majority. 

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Yeah, I don't think the gap in the B.C. election is as vast as the aggregator makes it seem. Only one poll was conducted after Horgan called the election, but it doesn't seem to have hurt him much personally. The data points I'd worry about if I were him is that the gulf between the NDP and Liberals in party preference is significantly smaller than Horgan's lead over Wilkinson in leader popularity.

 

There's not a ton of wiggle room in B.C. and there never really has been. The ridings on the island and around Vancouver proper will go NDP; the outer suburbs of Vancouver and the interior will go Liberal. I think this is the first B.C. election I can remember that isn't a single-issue referendum on pipelines.    

Edited by RWG
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  • 2 weeks later...

A number of polls have since come out showing the BC NDP in clear majority territory. The number required for a majority is 44. Here's the seat breakdown I'll guess:

 

NDP - 48

Liberals - 38

Green - 1

 

This supposes that the NDP flips two of the Green seats in the Victoria area, four Liberal seats in metro Vancouver, and two Liberal seats in the interior. This will be Andrew Wilkinson's only election as BC Liberal leader. The new Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau will be the lone Green MLA survivor, though I know the NDP have targeted that riding and could take that one too. 

 

I feel like this is a conservative projection for the NDP, based on the fact so many close races broke their way in 2017 (and they still didn't win the most seats). The CBC aggregator and another one I looked at both have them in the low 50s for seats and with a 99% chance of winning the most seats.

 

Should note that there was a similar projection to the 2013 election, in which the Liberals shockingly won a majority because of how bad polling was, or staged an epic comeback. But polling is better now, Andrew Wilkinson is much less likable than Christy Clark was, and John Horgan is much more likable than Adrian Dix was.

 

Edited by RWG
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  • 2 weeks later...

^ The NDP doesn't want an election any time soon. If Trudeau wants an election he's probably going to have to come out and say it.

 

The BC NDP got their majority last night. The current count is

 

NDP - 55

Liberal - 29

Green - 3

 

A few thoughts:

  • The NDP will probably add an additional 3ish seats when the mail-in votes are counted. They could get as high as 60.
  • The NDP didn't get much of a pick up in the interior, but they completely chased the Liberals out of the Metro Vancouver area.
  • The BC Conservative Party did indeed cost the Liberals seats. Probably 3-5, after mail-ins are counted. That's a lot. In the Bible-thumpy areas like Chilliwack and Langley, the Liberals and their leader denounced their own candidates who complained about things like rainbow crosswalks and contraception. The Liberal incumbants in these ridings lost their seats to the NDP by fewer votes than the Conservative candidate got.
  • The Liberals also continue to lose higher-income voters to the Green Party, which the West Vancouver-Sea to Sky riding flipping Green this time.
  • The Greens have to be thrilled with keeping their seat count at three, losing one in Victoria but finally picking up one not on the island. They probably would have been happy with two. It wouldn't have been shocking if they were wiped out.
  • Andrew Wilkinson's election-night speech included no concession and no congratulations to his opponents. His position throughout the campaign was that the Liberals have nothing to apologize for for the handling of ICBC, BC Hydro, and housing affordability during their 16-year government.
Edited by RWG
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  • 4 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

I remember when Pallister was one of the most popular premiers in the country. Kenney is not so surprising. Pandemic handling aside, the guy has the likability of a salad.

 

Recent polling in Alberta shows the UCP trailing Rachel Notley's NDP 47-40 among decided voters. No vote splitting on the right to blame it on this time.

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^ That's pretty good. 

 

New federal polling shows the NDP up to 23 per cent nationally.

 

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https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Legers-North-American-Tracker-December-14th-2020-min.pdf?x43558

 

Liberals are up in Quebec. NDP are up big in BC. I'm guessing that's tied to the provincial gov't.

 

The Liberals haven't had a major ethics scandal in over six months, but that makes me feel like we're due.

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NDP have been above 19% in five consecutive polls from various agencies. I suspect it isn't a blip in the data; It's likely real. Looks like they're taking small chunks of Green and Liberal voters.

Conservative party still flatlined at just their base support. Soon they're going to start wondering if they made a mistake with O'Toole.

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I don't know who O'Toole is supposed to appeal to that Scheer can't. They maybe could have expected him to be a firmer or more competent figure, but otherwise I don't get it.

 

If this analysis by Grenier clocks with what the Liberals have internally, and it more or less holds until there is widespread vaccine availability in the summer, I do think we'll have an election in 2021.

 

Quote

But the Liberals are still better off than they were 12 months ago. Now, by comparison, they have more support in every part of the country. They have seen modest increases of three points in Ontario and the Prairies (Manitoba and Saskatchewan) and four points in Atlantic Canada. They are also up about five points in Quebec.

 

The biggest shifts, however, have been in Western Canada. The Liberals now have 33 per cent support in British Columbia, a gain of seven points over December 2019. The Liberals are also up nine points in Alberta, but that still puts them 30 points behind the Conservatives.

 

The bump in B.C. is the most consequential in terms of seats. The Poll Tracker estimates the Liberals could win 12 more seats nationwide than they were projected to win in December 2019, and that half of those gains would come from B.C.

 

But when it comes to winning a federal election, Ontario makes the difference. The Liberals haven't given up their lead in the province since the last election and are still nearly 10 points ahead of the Conservatives. Along with Quebec and Atlantic Canada, that puts about 140 seats in the Liberal column before they even get to Manitoba — more than enough to secure a re-elected minority government.

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-polls-year-end-1.5845852

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In my opinion, the election won’t be happening until the fall when majority of the population have been vaccinated & they will remember the government’s response to COVID-19.

 

And I think it’ll be a good combo for Trudeau or the liberals to win another election. Plus I don’t think O’Toole is strong enough to take him down - I know that lots of riding in the Atlantic provinces having a hard time finding candidate but what can you expect when he ran a campaign calling red Tories liberal lite... 

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^ Yeah, if we were betting on an election before or after, say, June, I'd take the over. Their message will be, "we got you through this."

 

The idea that the government did a good job with the pandemic can definitely be picked apart, but that argument will be a lot easier for the NDP than it will the Conservatives.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/20/2020 at 2:24 AM, RWG said:

^ Yeah, if we were betting on an election before or after, say, June, I'd take the over. Their message will be, "we got you through this."

 

The idea that the government did a good job with the pandemic can definitely be picked apart, but that argument will be a lot easier for the NDP than it will the Conservatives.


The Liberals can still ride the post-pandemic momentum well into 2021 and likely snag a majority (or a strong minority), which is definitely why it would benefit them from calling an election sooner rather than later. Another minority government for them may be a problem though, 1-2 years down the line the Conservatives will be asking very tough questions regarding the deficit that could very much sway enough public opinion their way. A majority government by the Liberals would at least keep them afloat no matter how many questions about the deficit get asked in the House.

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  • 2 weeks later...

And my province (Newfoundland & Labrador) is officially headed into an election.

Just like other minority Premiers, the NL Liberal party is looking to cash in on that pandemic bump in popularity. Unlike the other provinces, there are major question marks related to the economic plan for the province moving forward. Transparency by the governing Liberals regarding things like what's happening behind closed doors with the Economic Recovery Team will make or break them. 

I'll be voting Progressive Conservative as usual. The NL Liberal party is full of cronyism and false promises. We've been under their governing hand for 5+ years now and are in no way, shape, or form any better than before they were in office. In fact, I would say the economic outlook has got a whole lot worse in that timeframe.

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Voters seem to just be handing out majorities during the pandemic, but if the virus is the only criterion, the governments in east coast provinces are the only ones that have at least done, like, a B-ish level job with it.

 

I don't know very much about Atlantic Canada politics, other than that there is supposedly less daylight between the parties than elsewhere (eg., the conservative party is barely conservative?).

 

-

 

I don't understand why the general reaction to this poll is dismayal. Is it that hard to believe that maybe Singh has been an effective critic of the government's handling of the pandemic, and is actually suggesting things people might find helpful right now? 

 

 

Edited by RWG
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