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Sept390

Top 7 Predictions (By Stats)

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Posted (edited)

Following my thread last week which predicted 10 out of 11 spots correctly, here is the ranking of Top 11 based on online popularity. For this week, I include some new metrics:

 

  1. Youtube Views 
  2. Youtube Likes
  3. Talent Recap Youtube Views
  4. Facebook Video Views
  5. Facebook Engagements (Like, Share, Comment) (1 like = 1 point, 1 comment = 5 points, 1 share = 20 points).
  6. Mjsbigblog Poll
  7. WNTS scores
  8. IG likes
  9. IG followers gained
  10. TVLine poll

 

I adjusted the weight of each component based on how much it correlates with the actual results last week. The final scores have also been adjusted by special factors (such as country fanbase, pimpspot etc.) which could potentially overestimate or underestimate the popularity of some contestants.

 

 

Final popularity score

1 (=). Arthur Gunn: 28.94

2 (+1). Francisco Martin: 12.81

3 (+6). Julia Gargano: 10.26

4 (-2). Just Sam: 9.9

5 (-1). Jonny West: 7.85

6 (+4). Makayla Phillips: 5.89

7 (+1). Sophia James: 5.84

8 (-3). Dillon James: 5.79

9 (+5). Grace Leer: 5.64

10 (-4). Louis Knight: 5.24

11 (=). Jovin Webb: 3.12

 

Jovin is dead last in every metric so I would be shocked if he could sneak in top 7

Arthur is still miles ahead of the others. I would assume the top 5 are fairly safe

It will be a very close battle between Makayla, Sophia, Dillon, Grace and Louis for the last 2 spots. Their scores are virtually the same. 

 

My personal prediction: Arthur, Francisco, Sam, Julia, Jonny, Dillon and Makayla. Though I will pray that Sophia will make it. 🙏

 

 

Edited by Sept390

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7 minutes ago, Sept390 said:

1 (=). Arthur Gunn: 28.94

Over It Drinking GIF by Saturday Night Live

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I think the four that go this time are Jovin, Louis, Makayla, and Sophia based on these statistics. Grace and Dillon have the secret country force on their sides

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Makayla is a Save contestant and they are the first to be cut in the last 2 seasons.

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9 minutes ago, redwood79 said:

I think the four that go this time are Jovin, Louis, Makayla, and Sophia based on these statistics. Grace and Dillon have the secret country force on their sides

 

The final score for Grace has been adjusted given her country base. Her actual score is actually lower. 

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13 minutes ago, mytake1 said:

Makayla is a Save contestant and they are the first to be cut in the last 2 seasons.

 

Makayla's score has been adjusted down given that situation. Her stats are really high.

 

I would argue that the judges saved Makayla because she was very close and they thought she could have another chance. And all the other teen divas are out so she might have more votes from their fans as well. Still, as I said, the scores are really really close. 

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49 minutes ago, Sept390 said:

Following my thread last week which predicted 10 out of 11 spots correctly, here is the ranking of Top 11 based on online popularity. For this week, I include some new metrics:

 

  1. Youtube Views 
  2. Youtube Likes
  3. Talent Recap Youtube Views
  4. Facebook Video Views
  5. Facebook Engagements (Like, Share, Comment) (1 like = 1 point, 1 comment = 5 points, 1 share = 20 points).
  6. Mjsbigblog Poll
  7. WNTS scores
  8. IG likes
  9. IG followers gained
  10. TVLine poll

 

I adjusted the weight of each component based on how much it correlates with the actual results last week. The final scores have also been adjusted by special factors (such as country fanbase, pimpspot etc.) which could potentially overestimate or underestimate the popularity of some contestants.

 

 

Final popularity score

1 (=). Arthur Gunn: 28.94

2 (+1). Francisco Martin: 12.81

3 (+6). Julia Gargano: 10.26

4 (-2). Just Sam: 9.9

5 (-1). Jonny West: 7.85

6 (+4). Makayla Phillips: 5.89

7 (+1). Sophia James: 5.84

8 (-3). Dillon James: 5.79

9 (+5). Grace Leer: 5.64

10 (-4). Louis Knight: 5.24

11 (=). Jovin Webb: 3.12

 

Jovin is dead last in every metric so I would be shocked if he could sneak in top 7

Arthur is still miles ahead of the others. I would assume the top 5 are fairly safe

It will be a very close battle between Makayla, Sophia, Dillon, Grace and Louis for the last 2 spots. Their scores are virtually the same. 

 

My personal prediction: Arthur, Francisco, Sam, Julia, Jonny, Dillon and Makayla. Though I will pray that Sophia will make it. 🙏

 

 


I’m pretty sure that Jovin and Louis are out of luck.  Jovin’s dead last in every metric and his final popularity score is last by so huge a margin that there’s no way he can catch up.  As for Louis, he’s probably the least memorable of five cute male singer-songwriters and his closest competition is Francisco.

 

I voted for Sophia 10 times both online, so I hope she makes it.  But I wouldn’t be too surprised if Dillon or even Grace got in ahead of her.

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I agree with the Top 7 in this list and can see it being the actual one we get. All of Cyniah, Kimmy, Aliana, Lauren, and Olivias supporters will vote for Makayla and shes gonna end up making it. I think the Top 5 are definitely safe as well and doubt we are loosing any of them. The final spot will either go to Louis or Sophia.

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10 minutes ago, m1key said:

All of Cyniah, Kimmy, Aliana, Lauren, and Olivias supporters will vote for Makayla and shes gonna end up making it.

 

That's not a sure thing.  Some may already have.  Some may switch the others.  Some may not vote at all.

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2 hours ago, mytake1 said:

 

That's not a sure thing.  Some may already have.  Some may switch the others.  Some may not vote at all.


Yeah.  I didn’t vote for Makayla.

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2 hours ago, m1key said:

I agree with the Top 7 in this list and can see it being the actual one we get. All of Cyniah, Kimmy, Aliana, Lauren, and Olivias supporters will vote for Makayla and shes gonna end up making it. I think the Top 5 are definitely safe as well and doubt we are loosing any of them. The final spot will either go to Louis or Sophia.

 

I am a Kimmy fan and definitely did not vote for Makayla. 

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I don't think the lack of "pop divas" will really have much of a benefit to Makayla. :haha: 

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35 minutes ago, redwood79 said:

 

I am a Kimmy fan and definitely did not vote for Makayla. 


I was a fan of Cyniah and Olivia among the teenage divas, and Just Sam is still my favorite.  Makayla might pick up some fans of the other teenage divas, but I doubt that it’ll be enough to be a substantial boost for her.  Her song choice and her performance will probably boost her instead, if she makes it to the Top 7.

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I don't agree with the op on this one, she/he was wrong last time and have a feeling that this person is wrong again. 

  • Confused 1

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6 hours ago, wgm said:

I don't agree with the op on this one, she/he was wrong last time and have a feeling that this person is wrong again. 

 

Uhh not really. Only Grace instead of Lauren was really wrong and they even mentioned they werent confident in Lauren at all and both were in the "toss up" category. With 20 people and 10 advancing its likely theres going to be some minor surprise.

 

Now its only top 7. Last week all the people they either guranteed or said had a strong chance....made it. And that was like 7 people.

 

It's been 1 week, but these stats so far have shown to be very accurate.

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14 hours ago, CarmenSandiego said:


I was a fan of Cyniah and Olivia among the teenage divas, and Just Sam is still my favorite.  Makayla might pick up some fans of the other teenage divas, but I doubt that it’ll be enough to be a substantial boost for her.  Her song choice and her performance will probably boost her instead, if she makes it to the Top 7.

Exactly. I see a lot of the teen diva voters who were already voting for Sam will continue to vote for Sam and if they weren’t Sam’s voters, they are just as likely to vote for her as Makayla

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Posted (edited)

SPOILER AHEAD

 

 

So I got 6/7 correctly with my prediction.


Before anyone coming for my neck again, I have stressed many many times in this thread that Makayla, Sophia, Dillon, Grace and Louis are very close and the margin of error is wide. 

The 5 who I predicted safe are actually safe. So I would say the stats don't lie.

 

 

Edited by Sept390

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