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On 6/6/2020 at 6:21 PM, TeamAudra said:

Just to be clear, I’m not suggesting the protests/organizing aren’t justified, but the hypocrisy is too delicious to pass up. 

 

 

 

 

 Most Definitely !!!!

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39 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

 

 

Another way of saying "we greatly overestimated the fatality rate of this virus, especially among the non elderly healthy population."

 

Jmo.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, ATX29 said:

 

Another way of saying "we greatly overestimated the fatality rate of this virus, especially among the non elderly healthy population."

 

Jmo.


That seems to be what the serology tests indicate. Imagine if certain states (mine included) hadn’t moved Covid patients to nursing homes. I previously gave my Governor a B+ for his handling of the pandemic. I’d like to retract that. He gets a D for that reason alone. The silence from the local media on the nursing home issue is deafening. 

Edited by TeamAudra

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Well Im back to the office as of this week but its not over in Florida. Im actually one of the guinea pigs to go back first.  But cases in my demographic (millenials) are spiking big time due to bars being open again. Not deadly at all for milennials but its still worrisome passing it on to older folks not to mention what i can do to your lungs

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Posted (edited)

What is happening imo/what many predicted would happen:

 

1. People say "we are going to have this many cases and deaths if we don't shut down massive segments of the economy and public life now"

2. We shut down massive segments of the economy and public life.

3. Due to #2, the number of cases and deaths is substantially lower than the worst-case-scenario projections.

4. People complain that they've been sold a bill of goods and decide the virus is not that threatening, go back to normal.

 

Florida looks to be completely out of control now. They're now at over 3,000 new cases a day and were around 1,000 a day a week ago. And it's probably more than that, given their reporting guidelines.

 

I don't think it's fair to say the U.S. has given up, but its leadership obviously has.

 

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Edited by RWG
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Posted (edited)

Ironically, the peak hospitalization date was the day of George Floyd’s death (May 25th). 
 

May 25: 606

June 19: 339  

 

That’s a 44% drop, despite hundreds of thousands of people gathering in the street, with little regard for social distancing, and two phases of reopening businesses occurring during that time period. Pretty much everything is open at least at 50% capacity. I won’t claim to know where it’s going, but the trend over the last several weeks has been very positive. 
 

 

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Edited by TeamAudra

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12 hours ago, RWG said:

What is happening imo/what many predicted would happen:

 

1. People say "we are going to have this many cases and deaths if we don't shut down massive segments of the economy and public life now"

2. We shut down massive segments of the economy and public life.

3. Due to #2, the number of cases and deaths is substantially lower than the worst-case-scenario projections.

4. People complain that they've been sold a bill of goods and decide the virus is not that threatening, go back to normal.

 


Pretty much exactly what's happening. Not just in the USA either, right-ring robots from pretty much every country are all screaming the same thing. "You told us these many people would die and look, only THESE MANY people died. We clearly over-reacted!" while being too ignorant to realize that our actions had positive impact on deaths and infections. Had things not shut down in mid-late March we'd be in a much different situation right now.

If you look at the total of closed cases globally, 9% of infections resulted in death. In the USA 11%, in Canada 12%, and in Italy 16%. Those numbers aren't anything to laugh about.

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Posted (edited)

IMO, the most important statistics, as it relates to public policy, are....

 

-Number hospitalized vs. available beds and ICU units. After all, they told us the reason for shutting down the economy was to manage the load on the health care system. Only some NYC hospitals, and possibly a few  in surrounding areas, exceeded their emergency capacity levels. The nursing home dilemma has resulted in a very large percentage of the hospitalizations/deaths, and doesn’t get nearly enough attention from the media. I won’t deny that far more would have have been hospitalized, if we would have simply “let ‘er rip.” 
 

-Transmissibility. On average, how many people will a virus carrier infect?  We’ve seen numbers all over the board on this, but it’s becoming more clear, as results of serology tests are being made public. It’s very contagious. It’s also important to know the relative transmissibility of the virus from surfaces v. air, indoor v. outdoor, etc. Everyone seems to agree that direct person to person contact is the primary way the virus spreads. However, not everyone engages in proper social distancing. Some of this is related to work and/or living conditions, which is why we’re seeing clusters of cases around meat packing plants, migrant farms, etc. Others, particularly young people, haven’t taken it seriously enough, so they often become carriers, and infect older relatives. 
 

-Death Rate. This is also becoming more clear from serology tests. A recent study from Italy determined that 70% of infections in individuals under the age of 60 are asymptomatic, which means the overwhelming majority haven’t been tested. We still don’t know the true death rate, but it’s clear that it’s very likely well below 1%. 
 

-In addition, we need to know the relative levels of hospitalization and death rates in the various segments of the population. We pretty much know who’s most at risk. Available treatments are also a factor. 

 

 

 

Edited by TeamAudra
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Looks like Texas and Florida are taking action regarding the skyrocketing number of new cases in each state the past week.

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Minnesota is now down to 300 hospitalized (155 ICU), which is the lowest since April 27th. Everything is open. We never really had the predicted “surge,” but I understand things can turn on a dime. 
 

Total deaths: 

 

Nursing home: 1116

Non-nursing home: 301

 

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html#hosp1

 

I’m not sure what the deal is in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, but the surge of cases seem to be largely a product of a high volume of testing, and hasn’t translated to a similar surge in hospitalization/ICU or deaths. The next couple weeks will tell us more. One theory I’ve heard is warmer temperatures driving people indoors, where transmission rates are higher. The average age of those recently testing positive has been much lower than what we were seeing a couple months back, which means they are almost all asymptomatic or mild cases. These cases were not being captured in the data in March, April or May, due to lack of testing capabilities. Everything points to the virus being extremely contagious, but not nearly as deadly as what was believed. 
 

I realize this is anecdotal, but here are some observations of a Florida resident. 
 

 

 

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The theory that the increase in numbers is due to an increase in testing is certainly popular, but not based on fact. As example, numbers for Houston:

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Check back in 2-3 weeks regarding hospitalizations and deaths for Texas since things only appear to be getting out of control now after weathering the March-early June period very well compared to spots like New York.

There likely is some merit to an increase in transmission as people move inside to avoid the summer heat. It's sort of the opposite of what you see further north, but no one wants to actually be outside during a summer day in places like Texas or Florida.

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Posted (edited)

Look at this chart. Bars opening in MN seem to coincide with an increase in cases in those age 20-29, as a percentage of overall cases. That age group does not do social distancing very well. 
 

EDIT: 0-19 has gradually trended up a little too. They don’t care about distancing either, but they can’t get into bars. 
 

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Edited by TeamAudra

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2 hours ago, TeamAudra said:

Minnesota is now down to 300 hospitalized (155 ICU), which is the lowest since April 27th. Everything is open. We never really had the predicted “surge,” but I understand things can turn on a dime. 
 

Total deaths: 

 

Nursing home: 1116

Non-nursing home: 301

 

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html#hosp1

 

I’m not sure what the deal is in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, but the surge of cases seem to be largely a product of a high volume of testing, and hasn’t translated to a similar surge in hospitalization/ICU or deaths. The next couple weeks will tell us more. One theory I’ve heard is warmer temperatures driving people indoors, where transmission rates are higher. The average age of those recently testing positive has been much lower than what we were seeing a couple months back, which means they are almost all asymptomatic or mild cases. These cases were not being captured in the data in March, April or May, due to lack of testing capabilities. Everything points to the virus being extremely contagious, but not nearly as deadly as what was believed. 
 

I realize this is anecdotal, but here are some observations of a Florida resident. 
 

 

 

All three of the main hospitals in my city are booked with covid patients and new patients go to the neigboring towns. 

 

But at least everyone is wearing a mask in stores/at work. People are taking it more seriously now

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That 0-29 age group is a good mix of ages who either don't know better (under 10) or the ones who think they're invincible. As much as I'd like to sit down in a bar for a drink on a nice day, its not worth the risk. A lot of young people don't think like myself though.

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10 hours ago, TeamAudra said:

Minnesota is now down to 300 hospitalized (155 ICU), which is the lowest since April 27th. Everything is open. We never really had the predicted “surge,” but I understand things can turn on a dime. 
 

Total deaths: 

 

Nursing home: 1116

Non-nursing home: 301

 

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html#hosp1

 

I’m not sure what the deal is in Florida, Texas, and Arizona, but the surge of cases seem to be largely a product of a high volume of testing, and hasn’t translated to a similar surge in hospitalization/ICU or deaths. The next couple weeks will tell us more. One theory I’ve heard is warmer temperatures driving people indoors, where transmission rates are higher. The average age of those recently testing positive has been much lower than what we were seeing a couple months back, which means they are almost all asymptomatic or mild cases. These cases were not being captured in the data in March, April or May, due to lack of testing capabilities. Everything points to the virus being extremely contagious, but not nearly as deadly as what was believed. 
 

I realize this is anecdotal, but here are some observations of a Florida resident. 
 

 

 

 

Texas hospitalization is at at an all time high currently.  The mortality rate has not changed however...although it might in the coming weeks.

Being in the bar industry myself I can tell you that there is absolutely zero social distancing in that environment.  I mean it's impossible to regulate or enforce.  I think it is the right call to close them down again.  People as a whole cannot be trusted to do the right thing on their own.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, ATX29 said:

 

Texas hospitalization is at at an all time high currently.  The mortality rate has not changed however...although it might in the coming weeks.

Being in the bar industry myself I can tell you that there is absolutely zero social distancing in that environment.  I mean it's impossible to regulate or enforce.  I think it is the right call to close them down again.  People as a whole cannot be trusted to do the right thing on their own.


Yeah, those days are behind me, but I definitely remember how packed the college bars, and even the ones in downtown Minneapolis were on the weekends. You literally couldn’t move without bumping into people. I personally would not go to a bar right now. I’m probably more cautious that the average person. My job requires me to be around people, throughout the day, but I take this seriously. Fortunately, I have control over my interactions, so I don’t have random people invading my personal space. 

 

 

Edited by TeamAudra

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