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COVID-19 Discussion 😷

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6 hours ago, TeamAudra said:

In light of the recent large protests, with little regard for “social distancing,” are we no longer concerned about young people becoming asymptotic carriers, and passing it on to their parents and grandparents? I haven’t noticed much concern around this from our elected leaders. 


 

we are all so screwed. 
 

enjoy the re-opening of places for the next two week...

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Posted (edited)

Effective June 10th, Minnesota allowing restaurants indoor dining, salons, swimming pools, bowling alleys, and a few other things at 50%. Gyms 25% up to 250 people. Outdoor gatherings of 250 allowed. Pretty much everything will be open at a reduced capacity. 
 

University of Minnesota President announced she will recommend in-person classes and open residence halls, for Fall semester to Board of Regents. That’s a big one. 
 

 

Edited by TeamAudra

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I'm in solidarity with the protesters and I understand the importance of protesting now, but I do also worry about the effects of doing it during a pandemic. The argument against "they're aware of the risks" remains the same as before; getting it yourself puts others at greater risk. I've become skeptical of outdoor spread though. I guess the protests will offer something of an experiment as to how much the virus spreads through large crowds outdoors.

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19 minutes ago, RWG said:

I'm in solidarity with the protesters and I understand the importance of protesting now, but I do also worry about the effects of doing it during a pandemic. The argument against "they're aware of the risks" remains the same as before; getting it yourself puts others at greater risk. I've become skeptical of outdoor spread though. I guess the protests will offer something of an experiment as to how much the virus spreads through large crowds outdoors.


I share your skepticism, but a lot was made of the anti-lockdown protestors supposedly putting others in danger by gathering. I haven’t been following the numbers, so I don’t know whether there has been a significant number of new cases, as a result of those demonstrations, which were over a month ago. We’re at about day 10 of the Floyd protests in Minneapolis, so if there’s going to be a spike, it should come soon. Of course, some could be asymptotic, and not realize they are carriers. I would think they’d be more likely to be infected if they get arrested, and go through the booking process. I’m not that worried about it, and I’m not sure our public officials are either, considering they just gave the green light to open up a bunch of stuff today, including indoor dining and movie theaters. 

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And a lot of the protestors got it. 

 

But, we are farther along in the shut down. 

 

I guess we'll see. 

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Is it a coincidence that about the same time all these protests started I saw videos of scientists saying it takes prolonged exposure in confined spaces for the disease to spread?  Are they covering their asses in case there is not a spike a week from now?  

 

I'm by no means a conspiracy theorist but something smells a little fishy here.

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9 hours ago, ATX29 said:

Is it a coincidence that about the same time all these protests started I saw videos of scientists saying it takes prolonged exposure in confined spaces for the disease to spread?  Are they covering their asses in case there is not a spike a week from now?  

 

I'm by no means a conspiracy theorist but something smells a little fishy here.

Well it is true it's more likely to spread indoors where people touch the same space repeatedly ( offices, stores,  bars) 

 

I think it's a mixed bag. Just read Ny had its first day with no new cases reported.  In Florida it's still kicking along as we've had over 4k new cases in the past 3 days.

 

I'm actually reconsidering my choice to go back to the office in a week

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Posted (edited)

Just to be clear, I’m not suggesting the protests/organizing aren’t justified, but the hypocrisy is too delicious to pass up. 

 

 

 

Edited by TeamAudra
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Posted (edited)

We’re 11-12 days into to daily George Floyd demonstrations in Minnesota. Following these numbers over the next couple weeks should give somewhat of an indication whether the lack of social distancing has resulted in widespread transmission of the virus. 
 

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html

 

AAdT5gt.png
 

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**Notice 80% of the deaths are from long term care and assisted living facilities.** 


 

m25fBkW.png
 

Y3imYWx.png


 

 

Edited by TeamAudra

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^ It will definitely be interesting to see if there's a spike from this. 

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On 6/6/2020 at 9:09 PM, Drew said:

^ It will definitely be interesting to see if there's a spike from this. 


If it does, we may never know about it. If they don’t show symptoms, they probably won’t be tested. These are mostly young people. The hospitalization/ICU chart is the best indicator, because it’s in real time, and not subject to inconsistencies in testing and reporting. If a significant number of protesters are going to be hospitalized, it should start happening soon. If a lot of them pass it on to Grandpa, a spike could take a little longer to show up. I’m not expecting it, honestly.

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I suppose that makes sense, given it doesn't appear that people who have gotten it but are asymptomatic are now immune. As they don't have the 

 

I think the two strains theory is interesting. That the strain that went left was significantly less contagious than the one that went East. I think the protests might actually show if there is any validity to this. 

 

Regardless, I don't think this is hypocritical. People were told to stay inside in order to save lives. People are now protesting in order to save lives - knowing the risks..and also at a time where most states are re-opening. People are also, at least, wearing a mask. 

 

I think there will be problems again, at least on the East Coast. NYC probably infected itself all over again. Which is just great..

 

 

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On 6/9/2020 at 1:47 AM, TeamAudra said:

Asymptomatic spread “rare,” according to WHO. 
 

https://twitter.com/cnbc/status/1270039481110888449?s=21


They're already stepping back a bit from that statement:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/who-covid-19-asymptomatic-spread-1.5604353

Asymptomatic spread is going to account for a lot less infections. You're not going to spread the virus nearly as much if you're not sneezing or coughing. One sneeze an hour would likely still be classified as asymptomatic, as example, and while that one sneeze is more than capable of spreading the virus, but you're more likely to get the virus from someone who's clearly sick and sneezing/coughing every minute.

FWIW the huge cluster of cases which hit our province started with an asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic carrier.

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, ButterflyEffect said:


They're already stepping back a bit from that statement:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/who-covid-19-asymptomatic-spread-1.5604353

Asymptomatic spread is going to account for a lot less infections. You're not going to spread the virus nearly as much if you're not sneezing or coughing. One sneeze an hour would likely still be classified as asymptomatic, as example, and while that one sneeze is more than capable of spreading the virus, but you're more likely to get the virus from someone who's clearly sick and sneezing/coughing every minute.

FWIW the huge cluster of cases which hit our province started with an asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic carrier.


Yeah, I know they walked it back the NEXT DAY. It’s hard to take anything they say seriously these days. Remember when they told us not to wear masks? Of course, there were others too, including Fauci. 

Edited by TeamAudra

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To throat clear: I'm not a WHO truther who it's an arm of the Chinese Communist Party or something. It plays a role something in the world has to play. And sure it's reluctant to criticize its members who fund it (like China) like all multinational organizations are (and therein lies an issue with them).

 

But how can they be making mistakes like the "very rare" statement about asymptomatic spread? Don't they have some kind of process to ensure that the statements its spokespeople are making are vetted by experts? We've all read story after story about examples of the virus spreading asymptomatically, and 15-40% doesn't meet any normal person's definition of "very rare." It's just ridiculous on its face. The stakes are too high for these kind of easily preventable mistakes. 

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Posted (edited)
On 6/6/2020 at 7:48 PM, TeamAudra said:

We’re 11-12 days into to daily George Floyd demonstrations in Minnesota. Following these numbers over the next couple weeks should give somewhat of an indication whether the lack of social distancing has resulted in widespread transmission of the virus. 
 

https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html

 

AAdT5gt.png
 

EdTJb5M.png



**Notice 80% of the deaths are from long term care and assisted living facilities.** 


 

m25fBkW.png
 

Y3imYWx.png


 

 


 

I’m still keeping an eye on this. It’s been 18 days since George Floyd’s death. Hospitalizations in MN are down 33% since that date, and 15% since I posted the above six days ago, despite the nightly protests, with little regard for social distancing. I’ll give it another week, to account for asymptomatic protestors/rioters spreading it to grandma/grandpa.  
 

Minnesota has significantly reduced restrictions, in stages, over the past several weeks, so some spread of the virus is inevitable. Restaurants, movie theaters, and solons have been operating at a maximum of 50% capacity since Monday.

 

Most of the problem still seems to be limited to nursing homes, and a few isolated workplace outbreaks in places such as meat packing plants. It has been determined that many of those who work in these places with outbreaks have living arrangements that make social distancing a challenge, and/or don’t speak English.  
 

....As of mid-May, 22% of the Minnesota Department of Health’s interviews with people who had laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases required an interpreter — more than five times the proportion of the state’s population lacking fluency in English.....

 

....On a daily basis, 30 to 40% of M Health Fairview’s COVID-19 patients have needed an interpreter, a spokesperson said. In-house interpreters work in 16 languages, with Karen and Somali being the top non-English languages related to COVID-19 cases.....

 

....The Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) interviews with COVID-19 patients spanned 27 languages other than English. A majority of them took place in Spanish and Somali, 57% and 28%, respectively. Karen accounted for 5%, Amharic 2%, and all other languages 8%.....

 

.....Jacobson believes the virus spread disproportionately among Somali-Americans because many had essential jobs in warehouses and meatpacking plants, where they worked closely together and were exposed to the virus and then brought it home to families living in close quarters. Jacobson noted that Somalis, with their large networks of family, neighbors and friends, often share vehicles or depend on one another for rides, making it harder to self-isolate....
 

....“When you still have people working in places that they’re exposed to the virus and they come back to their tightknit, tight-space communities, that’s like a breeding ground for a virus,” said Jacobson, a registered nurse and community health specialist. “For this community, they had all odds against them.”....

 

https://m.startribune.com/a-large-percentage-of-minnesota-covid-19-patients-don-t-speak-english/570772542/

Edited by TeamAudra

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I did end up going to the beach briefly, but stayed away from the majority of people as best as I could. No one was wearing a mask though, absolutely no one so that was a little strange. At that point, it made little sense to put mine on unless I was going into a business indoors as if I have one on and no one else does, it doesn't really make too much of a difference in that circumstance from what I know. This has been going on for so long, I can't wait for it to be over. 

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Posted (edited)

I don’t know that I would have used the words “few deaths,” but I understand his point. There are definitely a lot of relatively mild and asymptomatic cases, and it’s very clear which segments of the population face the highest risks. Interesting chart. 
 

 

Edited by TeamAudra

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