ButterflyEffect Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, TeamAudra said: I don’t know much about Michigan, but Minnesota is so difficult to poll, because it’s either deep red or deep blue, depending on the zip code. It’s very easy to get a skewed result, if they’re not calling enough folks in outlying areas or the Northern suburbs. I doubt very much Biden has an 8 point lead. There's an inherently larger margin of error with state level polling that results from issues like that. Smaller pool of respondents, high regionalization differences, etc. MOE on a state level poll us usually hovering around plus or minus 5 points. Based on that, back in 2016 Clinton was "ahead" in state level polling in the states eventually won by Trump (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio) by around 5 points, and less in some cases. Not hard to see how that victory happened. Once you take out adjustments made by 538 (economics, incumbency) and just look at polling averages, once undecided voters are distributed however they do in their model, it's Biden +9.3. Best poll being ABC/WaPo Biden +17 (lol), worst being Morning Consult with Biden +4. I'm guessing come election day, based on what we know today, that MN would be around a Biden +5% victory. Looks like the slightly right-er leaning RCP has MN at Biden +9.4 right now. 19 minutes ago, Drew said: Weren't some people predicting a blowout last time as well? The only people predicting a blowout appears to have been people who had no idea how to digest polling data. The media also didn't help much. I drank the Clinton kool-aid in 2016, but since then I've become more invested in North American politics. Actually checking out polling below the national level since a national number tells you nothing. Even though polling for the 2016 popular vote share pretty close. Edited October 5, 2020 by ButterflyEffect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RWG Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 5 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said: With these results, I can see Trump refusing to relinquish power and claiming electoral fraud, causing mass protests, anarchy, and eventually civilian death. Though that may happen no matter the result. I do not think it's possible for either side to win and have the other side accept the result as legitimate. It's not going to be pretty. If the mail-in ballots result in a jump-ball situation like the one in 2000, I'd assume the supreme court would just tip it to Trump. I don't think this is likely, but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sneaky Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 (edited) I'm not sure what's gonna happen. The county I live in is the quintessential swing county that Trump won by 1% last year. In my city, at least in my side of town, I have been seeing more Biden signs than Trump...However, I live about 15 minutes from Tampa. I drove through a neighborhood in Tampa this morning and was surprised how many Trump signs i saw in an upper middle class neighborhood. Tampa I would not call a normally conservative city. Edited October 5, 2020 by sneaky sp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 5, 2020 Share Posted October 5, 2020 3 hours ago, Drew said: Weren't some people predicting a blowout last time as well? Well there was in the popular vote, never saw it coming electorally. But the state polls are better this time where it counts to get a better prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said: There's an inherently larger margin of error with state level polling that results from issues like that. Smaller pool of respondents, high regionalization differences, etc. MOE on a state level poll us usually hovering around plus or minus 5 points. Based on that, back in 2016 Clinton was "ahead" in state level polling in the states eventually won by Trump (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio) by around 5 points, and less in some cases. Not hard to see how that victory happened. Once you take out adjustments made by 538 (economics, incumbency) and just look at polling averages, once undecided voters are distributed however they do in their model, it's Biden +9.3. Best poll being ABC/WaPo Biden +17 (lol), worst being Morning Consult with Biden +4. I'm guessing come election day, based on what we know today, that MN would be around a Biden +5% victory. Looks like the slightly right-er leaning RCP has MN at Biden +9.4 right now. The only people predicting a blowout appears to have been people who had no idea how to digest polling data. The media also didn't help much. I drank the Clinton kool-aid in 2016, but since then I've become more invested in North American politics. Actually checking out polling below the national level since a national number tells you nothing. Even though polling for the 2016 popular vote share pretty close. I’ll just say polling in MN often has a tendency to be heavily skewed toward Democrats. I have no idea whether it’s intentional or not. It could just be that it’s hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 (edited) I can definitely understand why conspiracies exist that he isn’t really sick. I’m not in that camp, but nobody can convince me this was a severe case. His doctor said he didn’t even have a fever. As for the experimental treatments (the “kitchen sink”), here’s my theory on this...Trump has always been known to be a germophobe, and demanded all of these treatments, even though they are normally reserved for more severe cases. He more than likely did consult with his doctors at length about the treatments, and decided the potential benefits outweighed any risk. He also has personal friends who’ve died from COVID, which may have influenced him as well. Edited October 6, 2020 by TeamAudra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 (edited) Edited October 6, 2020 by Jonathan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Holy shit. He got the wording wrong a little, but that is basically what Joe said today. Now we know why they hid him in the basement for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 16 minutes ago, TeamAudra said: Holy shit. He got the wording wrong a little, but that is basically what Joe said today. Now we know why they hid him in the basement for so long. This Tweet is from a suspended account. Learn more is what comes up when I click that link. I take it at that value. Nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 (edited) 1 minute ago, Jonathan said: This Tweet is from a suspended account. Learn more is what comes up when I click that link. I take it at that value. Nice try. I just clicked on the tweet. It’s not suspended. Is the video of him saying it good enough for you? Edited October 6, 2020 by TeamAudra 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Just now, TeamAudra said: I just clicked on the tweet. It’s not suspended. Is the f*cking video good enough for you? https://twitter.com/ShmueliF/status/1311061213720313856 The original poster's account was suspended. And we don't know the context of the full statement so no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Jonathan said: https://twitter.com/ShmueliF/status/1311061213720313856 The original poster's account was suspended. And we don't know the context of the full statement so no. I’ve read the full transcript. That’s what he said. Based on his history of sticking his foot in his mouth, should we be surprised? No. Do I care whether you believe what you see and hear with your own eyes and ears? Nope. Not really. Edited October 6, 2020 by TeamAudra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bswanson Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 ^ lol yeah I mean who really knows his heath but to take off his mask and go right i nthe white house after only 3 days where during the last few days several there tested postitve isnt good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 LMAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psterina Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Joe Biden ... What the ...... The comment section, though. Oof .... they are skewring him, and rightly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psterina Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Mail in voting .... What else can go wrong? Well ..... this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 12 minutes ago, psterina said: Joe Biden ... What the ...... The comment section, though. Oof .... they are skewring him, and rightly so. According to Jonathan, he didn’t say it, so.... Look, I don’t think it was an intentional shot at black people, but it’s still a foot in the mouth moment, not unlike the other dozens of similar comments he’s made over the years. Remember the Middle Eastern/7-11 comment? The message...blacks stock grocery shelves, Hispanics are first responders. That’s what he said! Why did he even need to interject race into this anyway? Stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psterina Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Ummm .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sneaky Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 hours ago, TeamAudra said: According to Jonathan, he didn’t say it, so.... Look, I don’t think it was an intentional shot at black people, but it’s still a foot in the mouth moment, not unlike the other dozens of similar comments he’s made over the years. Remember the Middle Eastern/7-11 comment? The message...blacks stock grocery shelves, Hispanics are first responders. That’s what he said! Why did he even need to interject race into this anyway? Stupid. Honestly not to be ageist but his thoughts are pretty common among his age group. He's just not a good candidate and the Democrats were corrupt in pimping him. But, if this bothers you yet you are fine with Mexican Americans are " rapist, criminals, and I assume some are good people " then it doesn't really matter. And that's among many others. Not you specifically...but Trump's fanbase as a whole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, sneaky said: Honestly not to be ageist but his thoughts are pretty common among his age group. He's just not a good candidate and the Democrats were corrupt in pimping him. But, if this bothers you yet you are fine with Mexican Americans are " rapist, criminals, and I assume some are good people " then it doesn't really matter. And that's among many others. Not you specifically...but Trump's fanbase as a whole Do I need to remind you again that I didn’t vote for Trump, and won’t this time either? I don’t have to apologize for either of these clowns. Edited October 6, 2020 by TeamAudra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sneaky Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 I ll give him credit in that he is trying to work but this video shows he needs to be resting. Kind of a fruitless point because his vote total is set in stone. He's not going to gain any new votes nor win any. It all hings on voter turnout for Biden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RWG Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 The video of him gasping is hard to watch. He looks scared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeamAudra Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 He’s 74 years old and at least 50 lbs overweight. He had just walked up a flight of stairs. He probably would have been out of breath, COVID or not. This is the definition of “fake news.” Dude was never that sick. C’mon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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