The American Politics Thread!

[sneaky]

I duly note majority of America is cool with voting for a felon and rapist. My decision to prefer dogs to humanity is a solid one

[Hamza Tufail]

On 11/4/2024 at 5:34 PM, Hamza Tufail said:

There was a poll from IA that showed Trump behind by 3 points. I obviously don't believe that.

 

The latest polls from IA are showing that Trump is gonna win it by double digits. I think that's more accurate.

 

Maybe Abortion will be a huge issue in the election, who knows? But according to polls, nearly 35% americans said economy is their main issue. Nearly 23% said immigration is their main issue. 15% said crime is their main issue.

 

Only 11% said abortion is their main issue.

I wonder how that lady, who did the poll that showed Harris up by 3%, is feeling right now.

 

[Hamza Tufail]

I thought Trump would win PA, but he wouldn't be able to win WI and MI.

 

So I was shocked to see him do really well in MI. Then I checked the exit polls, and found out he won the Latino vote by double digits in Michigan.

 

There's a county in TX that is 97% Hispanic. No rep has won that county since 1892. But Trump just did, that too by double digits.

 

Latinos showed up in big numbers for Trump.

 

I also saw a news channel showing that Trump won 20% of Black Men vote in GA.

 

I don't like Trump, but I've never thought he's a racist. Dems kept calling him racist, misogynist, homophobic, transphobic, Xenophobic all the time. Now, they should realize that these things don't work anymore.

Edited November 6 by Hamza Tufail

[season1]

3 minutes ago, Hamza Tufail said:

Usually if the pollsters under poll a candidate, they make adjustments to make up for it. A lot of analysts said that pollsters made adjustments this time knowing that Trump always outperforms the polls.

 

Despite all the adjustments made, he still outperformed the polls. Whether one likes him or hates him, they have to give him props for that.

 

Three elections with Trump, and every single one, most media polls undercounted his support. When the premise is "Trump is the most hated politician in America", pollsters can miss the genuine support for him. 

 

The hidden Trump voter is a real thing. They won't answer polls, they won't put signs especially when they live in blue cities, they don't talk to the media, and many of them are not on social media. 

 

Here's NYT/Siena's final poll:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/03/new-york-times-poll-swing-states/76037205007/

 

 

AZ: Trump +5, actual votes Trump +5

GA: Harris +1, actual votes Trump +2 [MOE]

MI: Tied, actual votes Trump +2 [MOE]

NV: Harris +3, actual votes Trump +4 [missed by 7 pts]

NC: Harris +2, actual votes Trump +3 [missed by 5 pts]

PA: Tied, actual votes Trump +3 [MOE]

WI: Harris +2, actual votes Trump +1 [MOE]

 

They got AZ right, missed two, four within MOE of 3.5. They made adjustments in PA [4 point swing towards Trump] to make it tied and still missed it. So they didn't do too bad.

 

Unlike the Selzer poll that missed the mark by double digits.

 

 

 

[season1]

11 hours ago, Hamza Tufail said:

I thought Trump will win PA, but he won't be able to win WI and MI.

 

So I was shocked to see him do really well in MI. Then I checked the exit polls, and found out he won the Latino vote by double digits in Michigan.

 

There's a county in TX that is 97% Hispanic. No rep has won that county since 1892. But Trump just did, that too by double digits.

 

Latinos showed up in big numbers for Trump.

 

I also saw a news channel showing that Trump won 20% of Black Men vote in GA.

 

I don't like Trump, but I've never thought he's a racist. Dems kept calling him racist, misogynist, homophobic, transphobic, Xenophobic all the time. Now, they should realize that these things don't work anymore.

 

 

Calling Trump and his supporters names certainly does not work; they still voted for him. Trying to bankrupt and jail Trump also backfired and made him gain support; many Americans saw the lawfare as political persecution.

 

I read tonight that Trump gained votes in blue states and red states, compared to 2020. I'll compare the numbers later to see which states he gained votes in. I'll also look up later the demographic numbers.

Edited November 6 by season1

[bswanson]

just hope he doesn't put RFK in charge. he said he wants to get rid of all vaccines. I agree maybe not mandatory or someone should not get fired for bot getting a vax, but if you want one you should have the right to get one. 

[mercfan3]

Didn’t expect that. Indications were otherwise. 

leftists are hilarious - every indication for this loss was that Kamala was too progressive. The Dem party is gonna move to the right - and they have themselves to blame. 
 

 

personally, I hope Trump voters get EXACTLY what he promised. a lot of people voted with a “he’s not talking about me” energy - and I truly hope they learn he was. 

[season1]

I just saw this, from CNN:

 

Harris didn't outperform Biden in a single county

 

 

 

Maybe the dems should have stuck with Biden.

 

BTW, did anybody notice that Jill Biden wore red to vote yesterday? 

 

I think she should wear red more often; the color suits her.

Edited November 6 by season1

[TeamAudra]

The stock market doesn’t hate it, at least in the short term. 

[TeamAudra]

30 minutes ago, mercfan3 said:

Didn’t expect that. Indications were otherwise. 

leftists are hilarious - every indication for this loss was that Kamala was too progressive. The Dem party is gonna move to the right - and they have themselves to blame. 
 

 

personally, I hope Trump voters get EXACTLY what he promised. a lot of people voted with a “he’s not talking about me” energy - and I truly hope they learn he was. 

Some of the “woke” stuff is not helping their cause. Much of it is batshit crazy, and has somehow been mainstreamed by nearly half the country. 

Edited November 6 by TeamAudra

[mercfan3]

18 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

Some of the “woke” stuff is not helping their cause. Much of it is batshit crazy, and has somehow been mainstreamed by nearly half the country. 

I actually agree with this, and I’m certainly someone who cares about human rights intersectionality etc..

 

it’s like talking about police brutality against Black and Brown communities. Most people see the evidence and agree..but then leftists groups went “we should get rid of the police” ..like..clearly that’s a losing argument.

 

Similarly, most of us agree that gay couples should have the same rights as straight couples. But maybe..MAYBE..furries shouldn’t be a protected class. 

[TeamAudra]

9 minutes ago, mercfan3 said:

I actually agree with this, and I’m certainly someone who cares about human rights intersectionality etc..

 

it’s like talking about police brutality against Black and Brown communities. Most people see the evidence and agree..but then leftists groups went “we should get rid of the police” ..like..clearly that’s a losing argument.

 

Similarly, most of us agree that gay couples should have the same rights as straight couples. But maybe..MAYBE..furries shouldn’t be a protected class. 

You could probably get agreement from 80% of the country with what you just wrote, but that’s not where your party is at, or at least those who have power. I doubt Biden agrees with the crazy stuff. 

[Hamza Tufail]

1 hour ago, mercfan3 said:

Didn’t expect that. Indications were otherwise. 

leftists are hilarious - every indication for this loss was that Kamala was too progressive. The Dem party is gonna move to the right - and they have themselves to blame. 
 

 

personally, I hope Trump voters get EXACTLY what he promised. a lot of people voted with a “he’s not talking about me” energy - and I truly hope they learn he was. 

I don't think so. All the latest polls in october showed that the trend is going towards reps. The moment Kamala started doing interviews, things went downhill for her.

 

On 10/11/2024 at 8:39 PM, Hamza Tufail said:

A few weeks ago, the polling avg from various polls was favoring Kamala slightly. But ever since she's started doing these interviews, her support has gone down. Now the avg from new polls has Trump ahead slightly in Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While Kamala is slightly ahead in Nevada and Michigan.

 

Even Obama acknowledged it while talking to a group of black voters. He said they're not seeing the same energy within Black community for Kamala as they saw for him when he ran for president. He exclusively mentioned Black Men. Then he proceeded to tell them why they should vote for her, like, she's had the same struggles as you guys etc...

 

 

Like you said, it's very close and it depends on voter turnout. So IF what Obama is saying is true, Kamala might be in trouble.

 

On 10/30/2024 at 6:56 PM, Hamza Tufail said:

This is insane.

 

 

 

 

All the polls and betting markets are showing the trend that Trump's lead over Kamala is increasing day by day.

 

At the end of the day, I still think it's gonna be super close. But this just shows how terrible of a campaign Kamala has run. Biden had clear lead over Trump in the polls leading up to the election.

 

[Hamza Tufail]

1 hour ago, season1 said:

I just saw this, from CNN:

 

Harris didn't outperform Biden in a single county

 

 

 

This is embarrassing.

[bswanson]

5 hours ago, mercfan3 said:

Didn’t expect that. Indications were otherwise. 

leftists are hilarious - every indication for this loss was that Kamala was too progressive. The Dem party is gonna move to the right - and they have themselves to blame. 
 

 

personally, I hope Trump voters get EXACTLY what he promised. a lot of people voted with a “he’s not talking about me” energy - and I truly hope they learn he was. 

yep and if RFK gets in it will affect them. He said he wants to get fluoride out of water for example 

[Anybody354]

I’ve never left a comment on here but discovered this forum recently. I’m really saddened that Trump won. I’m not going to even say Harris is perfect, but Trump is a convicted felon with close to 30 sexual misconduct allegations and was found liable of sexual assault in a court. He also incited a violent insurrection to prevent the peaceful transfer of power.

 

As a male in his early 20s, I have seen young men swing to the right, and it scares me. I posted a pro-Kamala post on my story and someone slid into my DMs and called me the f-slur. Like WTF?!!!

 

A lot of voters are (rightfully) concerned about the economy, but as an economics major, I can say that Trump’s economic plans are likely going to worsen the cost of living significantly. By imposing big tariffs, consumers will shift their demand to domestically produced goods, so those will cost more. He also wants control over the Federal Reserve, which is supposed to be NONPARTISAN.

 

I think Dems need to change their strategy and messaging, but also this country has some big problems with education (both generally and also sexual education). Otherwise Trump wouldn’t have won.

[Hamza Tufail]

9 minutes ago, Anybody354 said:

I’ve never left a comment on here but discovered this forum recently. I’m really saddened that Trump won. I’m not going to even say Harris is perfect, but Trump is a convicted felon with close to 30 sexual misconduct allegations and was found liable of sexual assault in a court. He also incited a violent insurrection to prevent the peaceful transfer of power.

 

As a male in his early 20s, I have seen young men swing to the right, and it scares me. I posted a pro-Kamala post on my story and someone slid into my DMs and called me the f-slur. Like WTF?!!!

 

A lot of voters are (rightfully) concerned about the economy, but as an economics major, I can say that Trump’s economic plans are likely going to worsen the cost of living significantly. By imposing big tariffs, consumers will shift their demand to domestically produced goods, so those will cost more. He also wants control over the Federal Reserve, which is supposed to be NONPARTISAN.

 

I think Dems need to change their strategy and messaging, but also this country has some big problems with education (both generally and also sexual education). Otherwise Trump wouldn’t have won.

Dems basically needed a centre left candidate who wouldn't have scared the sh!t out of a common person. The stuff that far left does is what has drived a lot of young men towards the right. They may not agree with Trump, or may not even like him, but he's the current leader of the ring wing, so he's their alternative to all the nonsense they see on the far left.

 

I'm not sure how people here will feel about this, but dems can do very well with Dwayne The Rock Johnson as their candidate. Centre left. Entertaining. Charismatic. Widely known. Funny. Chill. Intelligent. Coherent.

[mercfan3]

1 hour ago, Hamza Tufail said:

Dems basically needed a centre left candidate who wouldn't have scared the sh!t out of a common person. The stuff that far left does is what has drived a lot of young men towards the right. They may not agree with Trump, or may not even like him, but he's the current leader of the ring wing, so he's their alternative to all the nonsense they see on the far left.

 

I'm not sure how people here will feel about this, but dems can do very well with Dwayne The Rock Johnson as their candidate. Centre left. Entertaining. Charismatic. Widely known. Funny. Chill. Intelligent. Coherent.

 I think it’ll be Shapiro. 
 

I actually wouldn’t mind Dems starting their primary process early. Kamala, imo, ran a really good campaign, and Dems just weren’t going to win..but ultimately it was her 90 days vs Trump’s 10 years..and that does actually matter. Maybe Dems need to have someone running throughout Donald’s entire Presidency. 

Edited November 6 by mercfan3

[Jonathan]

Donald Trump is the only American ever born to defeat the judicial system and the electoral system. He's not book smart but he and those who he surround himself are brilliant at maneuvering around established laws and norms. Now he and they know how to completely destroy them. This is terrifying. The Constitution is now going to be just an archived historical document. The only "hope" we have is Trump's health catches up with him. But that even isn't much hope cause that would leave us with Vance who really none of us really even know. He changes by whatever the way the wind blows just to keep power. I have a few more decades left in my natural life and I have a bad feeling right now the best days of my life in America are now behind me. It's way too early to talk about 2028 cause I seriously doubt there will be a Presidential election ever again and if there is it'll be like the ones in Russia where it's just for show. 

[Jonathan]

11 minutes ago, mercfan3 said:

 I think it’ll be Shapiro. 
 

I actually wouldn’t mind Dems starting their primary process early. Kamala, imo, ran a really good campaign, and Dems just weren’t going to win..but ultimately it was her 90 days vs Trump’s 10 years..and that does actually matter. Maybe Dems need to have someone running throughout Donald’s entire Presidency. 

 

If there is a 2028 election Shapirio is the only name I can think of who fits all the molds. Bashear is another one.  But we need a Bill Clinton or Barack Obama and I don't even know if Shapiro could be that.

Edited November 6 by Jonathan

[Raphy]

We're doomed! 

[Anybody354]

1 hour ago, Hamza Tufail said:

Dems basically needed a centre left candidate who wouldn't have scared the sh!t out of a common person. The stuff that far left does is what has drived a lot of young men towards the right. They may not agree with Trump, or may not even like him, but he's the current leader of the ring wing, so he's their alternative to all the nonsense they see on the far left.

 

I'm not sure how people here will feel about this, but dems can do very well with Dwayne The Rock Johnson as their candidate. Centre left. Entertaining. Charismatic. Widely known. Funny. Chill. Intelligent. Coherent.

But was Kamala really THAT progressive? I could totally understand that argument with a different candidate, but Kamala was already starting to express more centrist views during the campaign (probably at least somewhat to get independent voters). I think the bigger issue is messaging. 

 

As much as I like The Rock, I am of the belief that we maybe need to settle for slightly more “boring” politicians that will get sh*t done. Maybe not boring, but celebrities don’t tend to do well in the political sphere. We need someone who has experience.

 

31 minutes ago, mercfan3 said:

 I think it’ll be Shapiro. 
 

I actually wouldn’t mind Dems starting their primary process early. Kamala, imo, ran a really good campaign, and Dems just weren’t going to win..but ultimately it was her 90 days vs Trump’s 10 years..and that does actually matter. Maybe Dems need to have someone running throughout Donald’s entire Presidency. 

The Democrats need to run an open primary of some sort. And for that matter, they need to have as many candidates as possible. Hell, throw 20 into the primaries. Let the voters decide from there.

 

Personally, I would prefer someone like Andy Beshear (a few states away from me) or Mark Kelly. Pete Buttigeg would also be great, but a certain portion of America is going to be biased against him because he’s gay.

[Jonathan]

Kamala's speech was amazing. America did fail her. I'm still so proud of her to becoming the first female and first of color Vice President and she will always have her place in history for that.

[Jonathan]

16 minutes ago, Anybody354 said:

But was Kamala really THAT progressive? I could totally understand that argument with a different candidate, but Kamala was already starting to express more centrist views during the campaign (probably at least somewhat to get independent voters). I think the bigger issue is messaging. 

 

As much as I like The Rock, I am of the belief that we maybe need to settle for slightly more “boring” politicians that will get sh*t done. Maybe not boring, but celebrities don’t tend to do well in the political sphere. We need someone who has experience.

 

The Democrats need to run an open primary of some sort. And for that matter, they need to have as many candidates as possible. Hell, throw 20 into the primaries. Let the voters decide from there.

 

Personally, I would prefer someone like Andy Beshear (a few states away from me) or Mark Kelly. Pete Buttigeg would also be great, but a certain portion of America is going to be biased against him because he’s gay.

 

Beshear would be good if he can somehow get more nationally known.  He's a blue governor in a red state like Bill Clinton was.  If there is a 2028 I'm sure both he and Shapiro will run.  Cooper from NC would be good too but I think he has his eye on the 2026 Senate seat here.

[FunkyFrankie]

Well, can’t say I’m surprised trump won.  He may have good politics but I think he’s a big baby.  Crying and whining over everything and calling the last election rigged and the chaos of Jan 6