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Interesting observation about the two campaigns in terms of early voting --

 

 

 

The rest of the post:

But for the past two days, we’ve received few hard numbers on young, Black, and Latino early turnout – instead they’ve been sharing numbers for doors knocked and calls made.

 

They have shared some anecdotes – like high young voter turnout in college towns, where you’d expect it, and statements about enthusiasm. But they’re not giving out the kind of details that the Trump campaign is touting – like the Republican share of the early vote among new or infrequent battleground voters, Republican share of male vote across battlegrounds, and returned mail and early turnout comparisons to 2020.

 

The Harris campaign maintains they still have multiple pathways to 270 – but publicly they’re projecting less confidence than in previous cycles at this point. It may be that the GOP embracing early voting wound up increasing turnout among lower propensity Republican voters, which is giving Dems heartburn.

 

Harris is obviously animating a different swath of the electorate than Biden did in 2020, but it’s also but it’s also interesting that the final two weeks of Biden’s 2020 campaign included 4 stops in Florida, 3 in Ohio, and 1 in Iowa. Harris is spending more of her time in Dem strongholds, trying to lock down and turn out the base.

 

 

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Here are some data on early and mail-in ballots (82mil+ to date):

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

 

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One of the reasons I don’t vote early is it’s pretty easy where I live. The polling place is 1/2 mile away. I show up 5 minutes early, and within a few minutes of walking in the door, I’m done. It was no different today. I was back home by 7:15. I see these long lines in other places, and don’t understand why it has to be that way. 

Edited by TeamAudra
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2 hours ago, TeamAudra said:

One of the reasons I don’t vote early is it’s pretty easy where I live. The polling place is 1/2 mile away. I show up 5 minutes early, and within a few minutes of walking in the door, I’m done. It was no different today. I was back home by 7:15. I see these long lines in other places, and don’t understand why it has to be that way. 


it’s just the amount of polling places and population. Voter suppression tactics. 
 

My town - which is quite small and I imagine I’d have the same experience as you - really pushed mail in voting, so I did that for the first time this year. I voted about two weeks ago. I’m not gonna lie, that was kind of nice. 😂

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When I went to Kamala's Charlotte rally on Saturday it gave me real hope about NC. So many white people of all ages were there and I never saw that at Hillary's rallies here which were WAY smaller. My best friend who is extreme MAGA and moved to PA last year, his family is here and he told me they mostly all voted for Harris and many of them never voted Democrat before. He is sure Trump is winning but he was one of those who thought Trump would be installed even after Biden's inauguration. We've been friends since we were kids so I accept his craziness more than I would someone else. I feel like Harris has this won and we will have our first female President if not tonight, by the end of the week. As for me tonight, I don't drink but I smoke weed like a chimney and my bong is already burning. Going to be a fun night, and a very tired shift tomorrow I have to wake up at 6am for.

 

As for my map, I'm saying 319-219 with her getting all 7 swing states. Maybe Iowa could push her up to 325. I expect a epic Trump meltdown when he is declared the biggest loser in American history.

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28 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

When I went to Kamala's Charlotte rally on Saturday it gave me real hope about NC. So many white people of all ages were there and I never saw that at Hillary's rallies here which were WAY smaller. My best friend who is extreme MAGA and moved to PA last year, his family is here and he told me they mostly all voted for Harris and many of them never voted Democrat before. He is sure Trump is winning but he was one of those who thought Trump would be installed even after Biden's inauguration. We've been friends since we were kids so I accept his craziness more than I would someone else. I feel like Harris has this won and we will have our first female President if not tonight, by the end of the week. As for me tonight, I don't drink but I smoke weed like a chimney and my bong is already burning. Going to be a fun night, and a very tired shift tomorrow I have to wake up at 6am for.

 

As for my map, I'm saying 319-219 with her getting all 7 swing states. Maybe Iowa could push her up to 325. I expect a epic Trump meltdown when he is declared the biggest loser in American history.

i think she wins, but i don't know all 7? that seems way too tough.

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4 minutes ago, bswanson said:

i think she wins, but i don't know all 7? that seems way too tough.

My optimism says go big! As long as she gets to 270 whatever combination is good for me!

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Looking at the satisfied/dissatisfied numbers in the CNN exit poll…if Trump loses, it’s because a large majority of the country hates him. There’s no way around that. Those numbers are very ugly for an incumbent VP. 

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2 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

Looking at the satisfied/dissatisfied numbers in the CNN exit poll…if Trump loses, it’s because a large majority of the country hates him. There’s no way around that. Those numbers are very ugly for an incumbent VP. 

Even I have said just following political norms, any other Republican nominee would have had 400+ electoral votes.  Haley or Desantis especially.  They would have been the ticket together to have a red tsunami.   Donald Trump is the only Republican who could have lost this election. That is a condemnation on the entire Republican party and if they don't learn this time, then it's over for them.  Something else will replace them but it's not full blooded Maga.  They die with him.

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4 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

Looking at the satisfied/dissatisfied numbers in the CNN exit poll…if Trump loses, it’s because a large majority of the country hates him. There’s no way around that. Those numbers are very ugly for an incumbent VP. 

Hopefully enough people understand that to a large extent the VP doesnt have power. I mean Pence didnt do much either

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7 minutes ago, sneaky said:

Hopefully enough people understand that to a large extent the VP doesnt have power. I mean Pence didnt do much either

Cheney is the only VP I can think of who has been given "real power" and that's cause his boss was an idiot! But compared to today's nominee, that guy was Einstein! 

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1 hour ago, TeamAudra said:

Looking at the satisfied/dissatisfied numbers in the CNN exit poll…if Trump loses, it’s because a large majority of the country hates him. There’s no way around that. Those numbers are very ugly for an incumbent VP. 


I just saw Nicole Wallace say the same thing on MSNBC. She essentially said “it’ll be easy to explain either candidate’s win. If Trump wins, it’s because of Biden’s lack of popularity. And if Harris wins, it’s because Trump is tremendously unpopular.”

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So apparently Trump's winning miami dade by double digits. Someone on X, who lives in FL and is a democrat, said that dems are constantly loosing support among Latinos in Florida. Trump badly lost this country in both 2020 and 2016

Edited by Hamza Tufail
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1 hour ago, mercfan3 said:


I just saw Nicole Wallace say the same thing on MSNBC. She essentially said “it’ll be easy to explain either candidate’s win. If Trump wins, it’s because of Biden’s lack of popularity. And if Harris wins, it’s because Trump is tremendously unpopular.”


Also…Harris had a very poor job approval rating before she became the nominee. Anyone with common sense knows she’s a deeply flawed candidate. 

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A lot of people thought Harris could win NC, but as you know with 41%vote in, Trump is leading NC by 5 points. I think he wins this state as well as GA. His main challenge is to win PA.

Edited by Hamza Tufail
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