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The American Politics Thread!

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sneaky  

sneaky

Posted
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4 minutes ago, TeamAudra said:

People are reading too much into the early voting and VBM. Democrats voted by mail by a much higher rate in 2020 because they were more afraid of the virus than Republicans were. Republicans were suspicious of mail and early voting because Trump programmed them to not trust it, but the Trump campaign has been urging supporters to vote early this time around. Furthermore, we don’t know how any of those early and mail voters actually voted. There will be some crossing over, and there are a lot of registered independents. 

I'm not betting yet but the majority of the GA vote is in. Basically 7 million voters on the nose in GA and 4 million votes already in. I'd be suprised if there is even 2 million more votes to go

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mercfan3  

mercfan3

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TeamAudra said:

People are reading too much into the early voting and VBM. Democrats voted by mail by a much higher rate in 2020 because they were more afraid of the virus than Republicans were. Republicans were suspicious of mail and early voting because Trump programmed them to not trust it, but the Trump campaign has been urging supporters to vote early this time around. Furthermore, we don’t know how any of those early and mail voters actually voted. There will be some crossing over, and there are a lot of registered independents. 


 

There also wasn’t nearly the same push to vote by mail from Dems this time.

 

Indications are strong for Harris, especially on Pennsylvania. I think it’s likely she’s going to win. One of the biggest polling indications that Trump was going to take 2016 was senate races. This time they’re showing Senate races out performing Harris. 

 

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season1

season1

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

RCP polling averages, 11/2/24:

 

TTWF5zB.png

 

 

 

3 days before election, Trump is polling much better in 2024 compared to his 2020 and 2016 numbers:

8Ke6lbt.png

 

 

 

 

 

Polls released on 11/2/24:

 

vbYPABr.png

 

Two Iowa polls were released on Saturday, 11/2/24:

DesMoine Register has Harris up by 3, while Emerson has Trump up by 9. 

 

 

PPUsa released a series of polls today, including VA which has the race tied for President, and the Dem incumbent Kaine leading Cao by 1 for senate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Hamza Tufail

Hamza Tufail

Posted
Posted

Someone said that in recent history a candidate has either won all three of WI, MI, and PA, or none. I think Trump has a good chance of winning PA, but I just don't see him winning WI and MI.

 

But then again, he's Trump. You can't underestimate him. He won all three of them in 2016.

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TeamAudra

TeamAudra

Posted
Posted (edited)

I just watched an even split of Democrats and Republicans on CNN, and none of them have any clue what’s going to happen on Tuesday. They are pollsters, former elected officials, a former Trump admin guy, and David Axelrod, who’s not a dumb guy. I’m sure they all have a lot of inside sources. They all made good points about what they’ve seen from both campaigns over the past few weeks, but none will stick their neck out and make a prediction. 

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mercfan3  

mercfan3

Posted
Posted

and then there is Selzer 😂😂


Trump has been very hard to poll. As he has shown an ability to get people historically unlikely to vote to come out. 
 

Harris is also difficult to poll. she has specifically targeted a demo that doesn’t want to be included in polling. 
 

then you have the overturning of roe. Then you have Israel/Palestine. Then you have the Epstein tape whispers. Then you have any possible surprise between today and Tuesday. 

 

its easy to see why anyone with a career doesn’t want to make a guess. 

I will though. I think Harris takes the Blue wall. I think she takes one of North Carolina and Georgia (Georgia being the one), and I think Nevada and Arizona will go to the same candidate, though I’m not sure which. 
 

I think Iowa, Kansas, Texas, and Florida will be close, but ultimately Trump will take them. Though I think Cruz finally loses his seat. 
 

I think we’ll all have a good idea of who won Tuesday night, but Trump will call it for himself (even though I’ve predicted a Harris victory), and then will try some legal BS, once it actually is called for Harris. If it manages to get to the SC, Kavanaugh and Barrett will vote against Donald in anything that would set new precedent - but I actually think it’ll be ridiculous and it’ll be dismissed before it gets there, like his previous attempts. 

 

on another note, Dana Carvey as Joe Biden might be my favorite SNL impression. It’s honestly a shame it took them this long to find a perfect Joe. 

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TeamAudra

TeamAudra

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, mercfan3 said:

and then there is Selzer 😂😂


Trump has been very hard to poll. As he has shown an ability to get people historically unlikely to vote to come out. 
 

Harris is also difficult to poll. she has specifically targeted a demo that doesn’t want to be included in polling. 
 

then you have the overturning of roe. Then you have Israel/Palestine. Then you have the Epstein tape whispers. Then you have any possible surprise between today and Tuesday. 

 

its easy to see why anyone with a career doesn’t want to make a guess. 

I will though. I think Harris takes the Blue wall. I think she takes one of North Carolina and Georgia (Georgia being the one), and I think Nevada and Arizona will go to the same candidate, though I’m not sure which. 
 

I think Iowa, Kansas, Texas, and Florida will be close, but ultimately Trump will take them. Though I think Cruz finally loses his seat. 
 

I think we’ll all have a good idea of who won Tuesday night, but Trump will call it for himself (even though I’ve predicted a Harris victory), and then will try some legal BS, once it actually is called for Harris. If it manages to get to the SC, Kavanaugh and Barrett will vote against Donald in anything that would set new precedent - but I actually think it’ll be ridiculous and it’ll be dismissed before it gets there, like his previous attempts. 

 

on another note, Dana Carvey as Joe Biden might be my favorite SNL impression. It’s honestly a shame it took them this long to find a perfect Joe. 


Everyone already knows Trump is a moral degenerate, so the Epstein stuff will have zero impact. Even if video evidence turned up of him raping a kid, his base would still vote for him. I’m 100% certain of that. 
 

However, Puerto Rican comments made at his rally will have some impact, IMO. It doesn’t matter that it wasn’t him that said it in this case, because he has a history of racially tinged attacks, and normal people are exhausted by the constant drama. 

Edited by TeamAudra
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mercfan3  

mercfan3

Posted
Posted (edited)

First of all, the comments are gross. 
 

but second, it was just so stupid. Why would you insult a group of people whom you (should know) are incredibly proud of their Island and culture….and are centrists, so possible voters. Now the last poll has Harris up +77 with that demo. 😂 I bet it was more like 60/40 prior.

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sneaky  

sneaky

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, mercfan3 said:

and then there is Selzer 😂😂


Trump has been very hard to poll. As he has shown an ability to get people historically unlikely to vote to come out. 
 

Harris is also difficult to poll. she has specifically targeted a demo that doesn’t want to be included in polling. 
 

then you have the overturning of roe. Then you have Israel/Palestine. Then you have the Epstein tape whispers. Then you have any possible surprise between today and Tuesday. 

 

its easy to see why anyone with a career doesn’t want to make a guess. 

I will though. I think Harris takes the Blue wall. I think she takes one of North Carolina and Georgia (Georgia being the one), and I think Nevada and Arizona will go to the same candidate, though I’m not sure which. 
 

I think Iowa, Kansas, Texas, and Florida will be close, but ultimately Trump will take them. Though I think Cruz finally loses his seat. 
 

I think we’ll all have a good idea of who won Tuesday night, but Trump will call it for himself (even though I’ve predicted a Harris victory), and then will try some legal BS, once it actually is called for Harris. If it manages to get to the SC, Kavanaugh and Barrett will vote against Donald in anything that would set new precedent - but I actually think it’ll be ridiculous and it’ll be dismissed before it gets there, like his previous attempts. 

 

on another note, Dana Carvey as Joe Biden might be my favorite SNL impression. It’s honestly a shame it took them this long to find a perfect Joe. 

I'll bite who does Harris target  that doesnt want to be polled? If she targets African Americans she doesnt do a very good job cause from what I've seen she polls behind Biden in that regard-at least with men. Ironically, its white woman that are her strongest demo

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TeamAudra

TeamAudra

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, mercfan3 said:

First of all, the comments are gross. 
 

but second, it was just so stupid. Why would you insult a group of people whom you (should know) are incredibly proud of their Island and culture….and are centrists, so possible voters. Now the last poll has Harris up +77 with that demo. 😂 I bet it was more like 60/40 prior.


And we saw how quickly Florida Republican politicians jumped out there to condemn it. There are 1.2 million of them in that state. Also, over 500K Haitians, and some of them are obviously Republicans, living in this county for decades, or born here. There’s nothing to gain and everything to lose by attacking these groups. 

Edited by TeamAudra
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sneaky  

sneaky

Posted
Posted

Just watched Allie Beth Stuckey ask why is it ok for George Lopez to make a joke about Mexicans being thieves but the Trump comedian be reprimanded for making a joke a bout Puerto Rican govt corruption. Im on the autism spectrum but yet I even think the social awareness of the Trump cult is well...lacking

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mercfan3  

mercfan3

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, sneaky said:

I'll bite who does Harris target  that doesnt want to be polled? If she targets African Americans she doesnt do a very good job cause from what I've seen she polls behind Biden in that regard-at least with men. Ironically, its white woman that are her strongest demo


married women who don’t want their husbands to know who they are voting for. 
 

There were a lot of “on the ground” people essentially saying that wives were telling workers “I’m gonna vote Harris, go away.” 😂 and another sign she was making a jump in that area was that she’s now +23 (compared to Biden’s +9) with college educated white women. But the recent Iowa and Kansas polls really suggest she made a mark there. 

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mercfan3  

mercfan3

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TeamAudra said:


And we saw how quickly Florida Republican politicians jumped out there to condemn it. There are 1.2 million of them in that state. Also, over 500K Haitians, and some of them are obviously Republicans, living in this county for decades, or born here. There’s nothing to gain and everything to lose by attacking these groups. 


exactly. 
 

in fact, the border issue is one a lot of Puerto Rican people really cared about - and could have been a winning issue for the GOP in that area, but instead Donald made it clear to them that actually, he sees all Latino people as one demographic (again, huge freaking mistake), and considers them undocumented immigrants too - even though they are American. 

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