Jump to content
idolforums.com
Drew

The American Politics Thread!

Rate this topic

Recommended Posts

Yeah but over the past few years polls have been shown to be inaccurate. 

 

People lie about voting for Trump even in anonymous polls ( showing how inept Democrats actually are)

 

Also Democrats value intelligence more than Republicans.  Bidens mental corrosion shows up in softball interviews with MSNBC. It won't be pretty when he gets asked difficult debate questions. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a big DemExit going on. There is Supreme Court, to think about. But, it will come down to who the VP is, as to whether I sit this one out, or not.

I will be changing from a Dem, to independent. I am utterly SICK of the DNC corruption, and their misuse of power. And that, is that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, sneaky said:

Yeah but over the past few years polls have been shown to be inaccurate. 

 

People lie about voting for Trump even in anonymous polls ( showing how inept Democrats actually are)

 

Also Democrats value intelligence more than Republicans.  Bidens mental corrosion shows up in softball interviews with MSNBC. It won't be pretty when he gets asked difficult debate questions. 

 

Biden's mental corrosion is overblown. He's always said stupid crap. The Obama campaign literally had him stop campaigning for him in 2008, and seriously considered replacing him in the VP spot in 2012. It would be smart for Biden to just shut up and let Donald talk. Dem voters will vote..

 

Polls were never wrong, and Clinton did win the population that voted by the poll amount..we just need to focus on the states. Difference between 2012 and 2016/2020 is the Voting Rights Act wasn't obliterated in 2012. That being said, we do have more Dem governors that will insure fair elections than in 2016. (The other thing is, there is no longer a "what do we have to lose by trying something new" feeling. Tried it..results not good. Part of Biden's success was Obama nostalgia.) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, mercfan3 said:

 

Biden's mental corrosion is overblown. He's always said stupid crap. The Obama campaign literally had him stop campaigning for him in 2008, and seriously considered replacing him in the VP spot in 2012. It would be smart for Biden to just shut up and let Donald talk. Dem voters will vote..

 

Polls were never wrong, and Clinton did win the population that voted by the poll amount..we just need to focus on the states. Difference between 2012 and 2016/2020 is the Voting Rights Act wasn't obliterated in 2012. That being said, we do have more Dem governors that will insure fair elections than in 2016. (The other thing is, there is no longer a "what do we have to lose by trying something new" feeling. Tried it..results not good. Part of Biden's success was Obama nostalgia.) 


Biden is clearly not the same mentality as he was in 2008. I know that. You know that. Everyone knows that. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 4/24/2020 at 3:42 PM, TeamAudra said:


Biden is clearly not the same mentality as he was in 2008. I know that. You know that. Everyone knows that. 

 

Didn't say he was. He is close to 80, and I've been very clear that I think it is ridiculous (and borderline dangerous - not as dangerous as Donald, but dangerous) that two nearly 80 year olds were the Dems final contenders..especially considering the potential of other candidates.

 

I'm just saying that his "corrosion" is overblown. Our President just suggested people ingest bleach, but we're going to talk about Biden's mental faculties? And like I said, it wasn't like Biden was always Mr. sharp and coherent. The man literally said that he thought Obama was going to get attacked by foreign invaders WHILE CAMPAIGNING FOR OBAMA. He failed to win the Dem nomination multiple times for a reason. On a scale from 100..he's gone from a 60 to a 40, whereas people are making like he's gone from a 90 to a 10. 

Edited by mercfan3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, mercfan3 said:

 

Biden's mental corrosion is overblown. He's always said stupid crap. The Obama campaign literally had him stop campaigning for him in 2008, and seriously considered replacing him in the VP spot in 2012. It would be smart for Biden to just shut up and let Donald talk. Dem voters will vote..

 

Polls were never wrong, and Clinton did win the population that voted by the poll amount..we just need to focus on the states. Difference between 2012 and 2016/2020 is the Voting Rights Act wasn't obliterated in 2012. That being said, we do have more Dem governors that will insure fair elections than in 2016. (The other thing is, there is no longer a "what do we have to lose by trying something new" feeling. Tried it..results not good. Part of Biden's success was Obama nostalgia.) 

Yeah but as I recall they said it was 90% chance she wins. Then in 2018 in my state polls consistently said the Democrat candidate for governor and Senate would win. Neither did. 3 major races wrong by the so called trusted polls.

 

Biden has said controversial stuff but its not that right now. Its him generally not making sense. And him lashing out at the most mild criticisms (a sign of mental decline) It will be interesting to see. Democrats dont have a history of electing unintelligent leaders like Republicans do (Trump, Bush, Reagan during his mental decline)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some good news somewhat related to American politics-- Kim Jong un is on his deathbed 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, sneaky said:

Some good news somewhat related to American politics-- Kim Jong un is on his deathbed 

 

It's not certain but starting to seem more likely with sources other than just U.S. intelligence believing that. Even if it's true, they'll probably just tell their people he retired and doesn't want to be seen publicly.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, RWG said:

 

It's not certain but starting to seem more likely with sources other than just U.S. intelligence believing that. Even if it's true, they'll probably just tell their people he retired and doesn't want to be seen publicly.

 

.

They have already shown on the news North Koreans laying flowers out for him I guess at the palace or the hospital.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, sneaky said:

Doesn't look good for Ol Joe. But celebs like Alysa Milano and establishment Democrats wont care

 

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/24/new-evidence-tara-reade-joe-biden/

If anything, it should be a wash. I don't deny he probably did do those things, but powerful men and these things tend to be commonplace. If people are going to attack Trump repeatedly over the same thing, this is legitimate to use against Biden for sure. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/24/2020 at 4:22 PM, mercfan3 said:

 

Biden's mental corrosion is overblown. He's always said stupid crap. The Obama campaign literally had him stop campaigning for him in 2008, and seriously considered replacing him in the VP spot in 2012. It would be smart for Biden to just shut up and let Donald talk. Dem voters will vote..

 

Polls were never wrong, and Clinton did win the population that voted by the poll amount..we just need to focus on the states. Difference between 2012 and 2016/2020 is the Voting Rights Act wasn't obliterated in 2012. That being said, we do have more Dem governors that will insure fair elections than in 2016. (The other thing is, there is no longer a "what do we have to lose by trying something new" feeling. Tried it..results not good. Part of Biden's success was Obama nostalgia.) 

 

On 4/24/2020 at 10:19 PM, sneaky said:

Yeah but as I recall they said it was 90% chance she wins. Then in 2018 in my state polls consistently said the Democrat candidate for governor and Senate would win. Neither did. 3 major races wrong by the so called trusted polls.

 

Biden has said controversial stuff but its not that right now. Its him generally not making sense. And him lashing out at the most mild criticisms (a sign of mental decline) It will be interesting to see. Democrats dont have a history of electing unintelligent leaders like Republicans do (Trump, Bush, Reagan during his mental decline)


Just read a great article outlining 2016 polling, and how history could repeat itself in 2020. National polls weren't wrong, and some of the eastern swing state polls were within the margin of error, but Wisconsin and to a lesser extent Michigan were wrong. That changes a lot. Ultimately, it came down to any projection site giving Clinton a 90% chance of victory were misinterpreting polling data, and badly.

Here's the Article
 

Quote

338Canada: The odds are against Trump, but they're not as bad as you might think
 

I had made the final table against all odds, but was the low stack in the remaining group. The croupier dealt the cards. I slid them closer and took a peek: 7-6 of hearts. Not necessarily a strong hand, but I nonetheless called the big blind. My three opponents called. Then came the flop: Queen, Ten, Three, rainbow. I checked.

All opponents also checked, meaning either nobody had anything above a low pair, or somebody in the group was slow playing (maybe two pairs, or even a set?). The croupier dealt the fourth card on the board (called “the turn”): Five, which gave me an inside straight draw (3, _, 5, 6, 7). That’s a real sucker’s bet if there ever was one: Long odds to complete the straight with nowhere else to go with a couple of low cards and useless suiters......

.....
 

Obviously, in the context of poker, both events—the turn and the river—are not correlated, meaning whatever card comes up on the turn will not affect what the river card will be (except for the obvious fact that both cards cannot be the same).
 

In 2016, when some political analysts declared Donald Trump had over 95 per cent odds to lose the election to Hilary Clinton, they followed this flawed logic: Trump had to win Florida and North Carolina and Pennsylvania and most of the Midwest states. If we take these events as independent and non-correlated events, yes those long odds against Trump winning the Electoral College would have made sense. But national elections are not a series of uncorrelated events.
 

This is where precious demographic data comes into play: say about one per cent of voters with similar profiles in, for instance, North Carolina and Michigan swing one way, the change in the popular vote will remain within most polls’ margins of error, but the Electoral College will all tumble on the same side.
 

In 2016, the polling average had Trump and Clinton statistically tied in Florida; Trump won the sunshine state by one point. In North Carolina, polls had Trump leading by an average of one point over Clinton, and Trump won by 3.6 points. In Pennsylvania, Clinton held a thin two point lead in the aggregate, and Trump won by 0.7 points. These three states were actual toss ups, and, looking back, we cannot consider these cases as major polling failures.
 

However, the Midwest was another story. Whereas Clinton led the polls in Michigan by an average of four points the day before election day, Trump pulled off the victory by a mere 0.3 point. In Wisconsin, the polling miss was much greater: from an average lead of 6 points towards Clinton to a 0.7 point Trump victory.
 

All these states swinging the same way explains why the Trump odds of victory were underestimated by several political observers. And, in the five states mentioned above, only the Wisconsin (and to a lesser extent Michigan) polls were truly off the mark.
 

The point here is not whether the 2016 polls were accurate or not, but rather to remind readers that it was first and foremost the interpretation of the polls that was way off the mark. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight was far more realistic, with Clinton as a 70/30 favourite over Trump. Still, is that a sure thing? Absolutely not. Throw a dice: numbers one through four, Clinton wins; Five or six, Trump wins.
 

It was, from a purely statistical point of view, not that stunning that Trump could pull it off. Trump’s win was not the “runner-runner” inside straight so many still believe it was today, but a moderate upset against an opponent that turned out to be weaker than expected. Much like a below average team like the Montreal Canadiens beating the Washington Capitals twice in D.C. last season. It is unlikely, but it happens.

....

Which leads us to 2020. We are six months away from voting day in the United States and virtually all national polls show Joe Biden leading Trump in the popular vote. See below the national polls since early April:

However, on a state by state basis, the picture is not as rosy for Joe Biden. He is currently leading where he needs to be leading to win, but the margins in several swing states are barely better than those that had Clinton in the lead:

In the toss up row, we find the usual suspects from 2016: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina. Trump and Biden splitting these states is not an improbable scenario (in which case, Biden would win), but again how these states will ultimately swing will most likely be correlated. Therefore, as far as the available data goes for now, anything can happen.

...


https://www.macleans.ca/politics/washington/338canada-the-odds-are-against-trump-but-theyre-not-as-bad-as-you-might-think/?fbclid=IwAR2gFH77UVFllTKTY_SR32SYy38ICmrzLu5UT_FE39q49QxMYoIw4B3Ait0 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ButterflyEffect said:

 


Just read a great article outlining 2016 polling, and how history could repeat itself in 2020. National polls weren't wrong, and some of the eastern swing state polls were within the margin of error, but Wisconsin and to a lesser extent Michigan were wrong. That changes a lot. Ultimately, it came down to any projection site giving Clinton a 90% chance of victory were misinterpreting polling data, and badly.

Here's the Article
 


https://www.macleans.ca/politics/washington/338canada-the-odds-are-against-trump-but-theyre-not-as-bad-as-you-might-think/?fbclid=IwAR2gFH77UVFllTKTY_SR32SYy38ICmrzLu5UT_FE39q49QxMYoIw4B3Ait0 

That's a good analysis. It seems there is a margin of error to fall back on but the margin of error always seems to be slanted towards Dems--perhaps because Republicans are more loyal to vote--or because of voter supression

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Older voters actually tend to participate too. The young ones are very flaky. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton endorsed Joe Biden for president today and appeared on his live stream town hall. Did anyone catch it? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, Hillary was a stronger nominee and I'm sorry she's not president right now honestly. Biden is a good man, but I'm not sure if he can close the deal despite the polling advantage. Why do they always mention registered voters, but never likely voters? Honestly, even though Klobuchar would be the most ~likable choice, Clinton has the experience. Choose her. That's my take, not that I think that's likely to happen. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Drew said:

Yeah, Hillary was a stronger nominee and I'm sorry she's not president right now honestly. Biden is a good man, but I'm not sure if he can close the deal despite the polling advantage. Why do they always mention registered voters, but never likely voters? Honestly, even though Klobuchar would be the most ~likable choice, Clinton has the experience. Choose her. That's my take, not that I think that's likely to happen. 


Yeah, this basically comes down to "it's Trumps to lose" not "it's Biden's to win". 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kayleigh McEnany's first go as Press Secretary for Trump and she did a pretty good job. It is only Day 1 though. She told some whoppers up there, but the delivery was good and she dealt with the press well. Did anyone else see it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/30/2020 at 3:43 PM, ButterflyEffect said:


Yeah, this basically comes down to "it's Trumps to lose" not "it's Biden's to win". 

 

That's one thing Biden has going for him that Hillary didn't. We now know what a disaster Trump is - instead of just the projection. 

Also, sexism is unlikely to impact the vote this time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Drew said:

Kayleigh McEnany's first go as Press Secretary for Trump and she did a pretty good job. It is only Day 1 though. She told some whoppers up there, but the delivery was good and she dealt with the press well. Did anyone else see it?

 

I didn't see it. And although I think it shows a lack of character to be his Press Secretary, I won't deny it's a tough job. It's like the Trevor Noah joke about how Kellyanne is forced to say something dumber than Donald.."Kellyanne, I just said Shrek is the King of Scotland, go out there and say something dumber..." 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today's news: 

 

- The Justice Department drops their criminal case against former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn. 

 

- Tara Reade sits down with Megyn Kelly and calls for Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race. 

 

- A valet of the president's tests positive for COVID-19. 

 

Just another Thursday... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

I can't think of a state Harris would help Biden win that he wouldn't win without her. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...