mytake1

The curse of the Platinum Ticket. Also, that song has been performed so many times.

Hailey being so high profile from The Voice (and so recent) was always going to work against her.

This is the first time we've seen her compete. The audition was something she had rehearsed for months. And the other performance was a group effort.

With Emmy's audition, she was helped with curiosity about Loretta Lynn. She may still have a growth arc, but she needs to have her own music identity. The bus came for Blake. I don't think McKenna was as strong as people think. It takes more than just singing. Her personality doesn't always stand out.

The morning after AI Facebook Likes are telling. There are early front runners here who may not be as strong as people had thought. And there are underdogs emerging.

Because she's from The Voice. There's also several pop girls.

We know that it has not favored the winner in years. Since Season 12, only Chayce Beckham had some success. In as far as ABC Idol Gabby Barrett, Catie Turner, Alejandro, Lauren Spencer Smith are the most successful of their season. While Huntergirl is more high profile than Noah Thompson and Colin Stough, Haven Madison were first 2 to get a record deal - not the Top 2 from last year.

It's way too early to predict who will be in the Top 12 because of the auditions. There will be the shock boots. Last year, only 1 of the 4 Platinum tickets made it to the Top 11. Then there are the underdogs. There will also be Diversity - not just with casting, but with music genre. It's unlikely that almost all of the Top 12 - will be Pop singers.

But you're claiming that he is a weak singer.

How is Quintavious considered weaker? He was a child performer who competed on AGT.

The music industry has changed a lot since Idol was at its peak. There is now more competition with The Voice, AGT, streaming, Tik-Tok. Idol is no longer in the position to launch the big careers - they haven't for years now. The music business is brutal and very fast changing. I can't fault anyone who seeks other opportunities. There's no point in holding them back. NO ONE is that important to the show.

It's too early to make that kind of call. Every season, there's always people who fall short, lose momentum. Then there are the underdogs who have a growth arc that audiences rally around.

So if it was 2 guys, i.e., Blake and Will who may be in question - or if it was Colin Stough, the same should apply, right?

But you made it about gender and whether someone is popular.

It has nothing to do with whether someone is popular - nor is it a gender issue. The issue is whether someone violated a contract.

Likewise, there are the shock boots - it's almost inevitable - with multiple people being cut. Then you also have the underdogs that emerge - who viewers like to rally around.

Will will probably have the best chance of getting a record deal and being the most successful from this season. FACT is that the last time Idol had a successful winner that wasn't a Country singer was back in Season 11. That was 12 years ago. And since then, only Chayce has a platinum record. Idol's never been good about launching legit Pop careers.

Every year is different. And it goes back to who is in the lane with Will this year. Triston? He is too young and too inexperience. The other guys who are serious contenders are more Pop, R&B, indie singer song writer, urban.

I don't think they ruined it. They were already sold on him. But typical Idol to give him the ex-jock storyline. He's a smart guy. He has a degree in Biology and chose to pursue singing over a career in science.

I said I don't know if Will Mosley will win, but he is not a niche artist, and will have a better chance of a career after the show.

Will has a likeability, relatability about him. He's also a diamond in the rough, that Idol likes. Iam Tongi, Taylor Hicks, Caleb Johnson were not considered conventional type winners. Then there's Ruben Studdard, who is beloved. I don't know if he is going to win, but considering his genre, he has a good chance of a career after the show.

We don't know what really happened. There could have been a record deal, but it fell through. It happens all time.

Social media followers don't equate to a true fan base - those who will spend money buying music and seeing live shows. Keep in mind that there is a certain % of followers who voted because of his backstory but have since moved on. It happens every year on Idol.

Last year at this time, Iam Tongi was pimped as this viral sensation. A year later, he is the only Idol winner who has never been signed to a record deal. And if you blinked, you would have missed him on the premiere. Colin Stough got more camera time for a fluff segment. And it's because he is signed to a label.

But the Idol fanbase isn't enough to float a career. Maddie Poppe said that once they were no longer on TV every week, fan interest plummeted. To sustain any kind of career you have to be able to reach a broader demographic. It's one thing to follow someone on social media (it's free), but it's another to spend money on music and see live shows.