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jork

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  1. I can see Peedy's allure to the Voice audience. Dude wouldn't look out of place in a lineup of "The Weakest Link" Elvis Impersonators, brings a Southern-fried charm to his style, and plays well to the camera. And, much of that audience were probably in their teenage to college years and are excited to see their rock 'n' roll heroes like Elvis and Three Dog Night being channeled well, stage presence and all, by a young guy. Most 19 year old guys would look awkward on the stage but the guy looks assured, which really goes a long way. He's not old-fashioned, I'd say more like retro in a way that makes it look cool. That's something that might score points with any members of the younger audience this show has. Never thought I'd see that Shawn/Camila song covered in these shows, and it was done as well as it possibly could on these shows. Kudos. FOB is becoming the go to modern-analog rock for rocker types on the show. Always good for the change of pace. I can see David Vogel kind of having a similar allure to Peedy--just a good disposition, knows what he's doing, etc. Obviously way more current than Peedy because let's face it, 2000s pop-punk is 40 years younger than '60s-'70s sweaty scraggly long-haired psychedelic rock, although if Peedy can bring that vibe back for a year to Gen Zers like what Mumford and Sons did for folk in 2013, that would go a long way.
  2. GNT's allure are their harmonizing and their brotherly-sisterly relationship. Top notch harmonies, you'd struggle to find that among breaking artists in the marketplace nowadays. That's the bet that Kelly's counting on. However we define marketability in a show with zero artist marketability, at least they're collectively young and different, so that's big points. Can it work though? The group feels more harmonies >>> solo voices rather than harmonies > solo voices at the moment. It's early, but there's no step-out like Kimberly Perry did with The Band Perry yet. The show clearly had a mandate for trios/duos this season, and once they perceived GNT as a TCO candidate they needed to prop them up with other buffers (Jim and Sasha, KCK3, etc) so they weren't the only one. WTW didn't have any buffers their season so they stood out as more irregular. And Kelly's clearly vested in them, as they were paired in competitive battle/knockout situations and Kelly chose them as the primary. Wait till they pull out the religion card - that's the audience vote-pull there. As for Kinsey, she's good, but we've seen this archetype every season to the point it starts blending over and over again. Good job here, but in terms of uniqueness, she didn't stand a chance in this matchup to begin with. Kelly clearly wasn't vested as the next battle after the save she gave her another tough matchup with Gymani.
  3. She's positioned as the lesser of Kelly's top presumed top two preferences of Gymani and GNT, but she'd make a great comeback story. Gymani is kind of tried and true so it would be interesting if Hailey took her spot. The metrics seem to be there, and it would be interesting to see someone sing current songs and bring some GenZ tastes to an audience that mostly won't know the songs.
  4. This dude sounds like the doppelganger of Boys Like Girls. Has that kind of joyful emo alt-rock sound of the late 2000s.
  5. If her beginning number is 45ish, that's an OK start, but I'd be a little concerned her leading metric is radio by a fairly wide margin. CHR obviously loves her because of her long-established reputation, and there's very obvious payola for the radio deal, but the sales haven't really caught on. Itunes doesn't mean much, but I think it's telling that her team discounted the song during street week (whereas Normani did not with "Wild Side"). It shows her team is concerned that the song might not catch on due to its sound/Camila's reputation. Rollout problems: I think Camila has always reverting to plan B in her rollouts when her plan A fails - her plan A is to establish her own identity*, while her plan B is to put out an on-trend song with a featured artist that inevitably has much more success than her plan A. Go back to 2017 when "Crying In The Club" failed with the Aguilera sample, and then her team puts up rapper-featured trap songs "OMG" and "Havana"; iirc, "OMG" had better first week metrics than "Havana", but "Havana" was pushed and was a slow growing success. Then her second album had an even worse rollout; both "Liar" and "Shameless" were sent to radio, both failed, and then she went to Senorita for the guaranteed hit that plays off their romance more rather than establishes a real identity. Senorita was also really part of Mendes' album and was tacked onto Romance last minute, so really it feels more like a Mendes song aimed to help Camila. I'll say this though: Camila did a solid job riding the momentum of those megahits "Havana" and "Senorita": "Never Be The Same" and "My Oh My" performed well to further distract away from the botched rollouts. And now there's another slow start for album three with "Can't Go Yet". *IMO, I feel early on, Camila has trying to encompass the sound of many of her musical idols in her plan A's, rather than establish an identity. I'm not sure it felt authentic enough for the general public to really relate to the song. CITC was Aguilera, Liar was Shakira, NBTS and Shameless played into her Michelle Branch-rocker vibe. That's probably pulling in too many directions, many of which the public might not care about in 2017-2021. She isn't an introspective, detailed lyricist like Taylor Swift or Olivia Rodrigo, and doesn't double down on an ear-wormy modernized style (nu-disco) like Dua Lipa or a thumping broody emopop aspect like Billie Eilish. Her music videos are super elaborate in emphasizing her Latin roots and upbringing (telenovelas, familia with her latest) but that sort of stuff plays better internationally than in the US. It seems over here, the Latin music we like since the 2010s are more in the dancehall/reggaeton/trap aspects (Sean Paul to now Bad Bunny; Becky G, Anitta and Kali Uchis aren't doing that well here). One way to really do well in Apple Music (the major factor in BB100): have a really urban sound or a trap beat in there. Normani got her first Apple-leading hit with "Wild Side" doing just that, and Cardi B's feature obviously helps. "Can't Go Yet" had a joyful flow but felt like a pre-trap (pre-2014s) pop song, as it had no trap or bass. Then there's the reputation. Camila gained a reputation as a features artist all the way back through the 5H days (Kid Ink, Ty Dolla), and then her work preceding this single (Mendes 2x, MGK, Young Thug, Bazzi, DaBaby, Ed Sheeran). She's good at playing off her featured artists, and I think that's a lot of the appeal to radio, and most of her hits had a good sampling of trap or tropical beats, the sounds of the 2015s-2018s. But when you're so diluted with features that have been hits, it likely shows you cater well to radio, but might struggle to establish yourself as an artist. How much of her debut album's sales were due to Havana's success, as well as it being her debut album? We can answer that more conclusively after seeing how "Romance" did. Romance had half the sales of "Camila" --it stayed on the chart for 15 weeks while "Camila" stayed on for 36 weeks. That shows that she really doesn't have the general public (yet). This isn't an Jason Derulo/Ellie Goulding scenario of someone who churns out hits on radio and can't sell/stream their own albums, because neither of them released an album that sold as well as "Camila", and she has core fans I don't think either of them have. So I think the issue is this fight between going away from features with known success and trying to move toward a non-trend identity that's a little bit too branched out for the public to accept/really get into. I'm sure she'll have more chances to get individual/non-radio success - she's only 23, her team obviously really believes in her, radio loves her past success and will keep buoying her with radio plays. And she'll keep chugging away - Camila will always stay personality endears her to her fans, she's good at establishing top notch connections (Swift, Sheeran, Mendes) and there's no doubt she has a core following.
  6. Have always wondered when Normani would capture the urban audience--her featured songs were poppier hip-hop and more for the general public. This one finally seems it's hit - it's still #11 on Apple Music, 57 on spotify and 16 on itunes. If the strongest marker is Apple Music, you're likely to cater more to urban/rhythmic. It's also getting a ton of adds on urban (Motivation never got this many, which jibes with the whole Apple Music thing). In short, it looks like the public is receiving this well. It might not be pop, but this is better for sustainability for getting better numbers on album streams/building an actual fanbase. As for the song - obviously Normani's heavily influenced by Aaliyah, Janet Jackson and Beyonce, and you feel a lot of that late 90s vibe here. In terms of contemporaries, you see some late 2010s Rihanna vibe as well, when she went really hip hop, or a female Bryson Tiller. Some of that trapsoul vibe in there.
  7. Country tiktok is really strong right now--I wonder if anyone of the 5 country or country-adjacent artists here would fit in with that crowd. Unlikely, as recent technology tends to fly over the heads of those watching the show, and is more the domain of the younger crowd. But it brings an infusion of new artists to the mix. 1. DeSz (Levitating--Dua Lipa) 2. John Holliday (Diamonds--Sam Smith) 3. Cami Clune (you broke me first--Tate McRae) 4. Bailey Rae (Long Way--Sarahbeth Taite) 5. Carter Rubin (Teenage Dream--Kidd G) 6. Tamara Jade (Bang!--AJR) 7. Ian Flanagan (Dicked Down In Dallas--Trey Lewis) 8. Ben Allen (My Boy--Elvie Shane) 9. Jim Ranger (Drinkin' Beer. Talkin' God. Amen--Chase Rice/FGL)
  8. Yeah, wouldn't be surprised if WTW were pimped all the way to the Finale, just because they are different (not in terms of genre, but let's face it, the Voice is coalescing into a sea of R&B/country singers at this point). It's kind of interesting to have a mom-daughter group; I know this is just a show and many of the top acts are outdated/treating this for local visibility, but record labels likely wouldn't know how to handle this (it worked in the 80s with the Judds, but that's the extent, and that was eons ago). Still kind of surprising TPTB want to showcase country so much this season, given Jake Hoot and Todd Tilghman were the winners and television usually likes diversity rather than homogenity. But man, are all 16 acts carried to the lives are all country/soul-leaning? The only one who stands out from that list is Cami Clune, who will need a whole deal of "coaching" to navigate through early elimination pitfalls of previous archetypes (like Brooke Adee and others). It feels like every season, the top five is made up of archetypes exactly like Tamara Jade/DesZ versus Ben Allens/Jim Rangers, with maybe a lone non soul/country straggler somehow "lucky" enough to sneak in. This incarnation was basically with Cristina Rae/Broken Roots in AGT this summer. Groundhoggish--all these shows have lapsed into the same methodology. And with Kelly getting Tanner Gomes and Gwen with Ben Allen, it's definitely shaping into a country male fistfight where two or three might be in the top 5 provided a canceling out effect. Early iterations of the Voice, Blake actually carried guys like Jermaine Paul to victory. Chloe was impressive, because she was different. Hard to see those happening in this environment. After winning with a country?/Christian type winner, he's quintupling down on 4 country acts (Avril Lavigne "you wanna be a pop star" Jim Ranger, Ian Flanigan, WTW, his nominated act Papa). I'm lumping country-Sturgill-Bob Dylan adjacent Sid Kingsley in that mix as well, as the retro folksy vibe is most adjacent to country in today's enviro. At least Ranger and Flanigan are non-Southerners, and I wonder if that's by design--demographics can play a role in voting, and not sure country singers from Cali/NY really rouse the voting blocs. Figure one of them will be Austin Jenckes'd, if not earlier. Watch out for Tennessee native Ben Allen with Gwen, although Gwen's coach voting bloc isn't as strong as the others. The unspoken truth about this show is that pop-leaning and rock singers are just there for the illusion of diversity/optics, but are given short shrift by both the coaches and the voters. Not surprisingly the Limp Bizkit/Fuel guys were sacked before the voting rounds. Not surprisingly, the marketable ones, even for country, are eliminated before voting or just early on (Melanie Martinez, Morgan Wallen!, Andrew Jannakos). Wallen and Martinez have never been featured on the show despite their success, which makes this weird, but unsurprising. And the show can't bring back their former winners to sing songs because the general public would have forgotten who they were. But as a TV show, this blueprint is predictable, samey-samey, and is a carbon copy of previous seasons.
  9. Dua Lipa only projected 50-55K this week despite "Don't Start Now", and poor physical sales. Looks like Camila still is in the top for sub 30 year old female solo artists in terms of sales/streams.
  10. Camila's road to the album was just straight up irregular--her singles rollout and double radio play with "Liar" and "Shameless" didn't pan out, so getting really, really lucky with My Oh My is something that doesn't happen. Her team made top notch use of tiktok to get it absolutely viral. Weird thing is, My Oh My is her first single that's truly spotify/apple music frontloaded rather than radio/itunes frontloaded, and those are the metrics that matter. It will definitely help fortify her SPS for her album, which may be why her album has stabilized (13th to 15th). MoM is a definite hit--with the fade of all of last year's hits/Christmas songs it rocketed up Spotify today to #10, with nearly a million streams in the US alone. It's doing well in Apple considering JACKBOYS and Roddy Ricch hog all the top spots. So yeah, I bet this album will do as well as her debut, if not better depending on what happens next.
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