CAD and CWSM Sales Benchmarks, ►CWSM:349k►CAD:2k +120% 1.166m►SYT:5k -11% 79k Options

[drdeb]

Alright gang, we're under one week before CAD debuts as an album and under two weeks before CAD debuts on the Billboard charts. With the latter in mind, it's time to start establishing comparative benchmarks to guide our sales expectations.

ALBUM BENCHMARKS
The following is a list of recent #1 Billboard Country albums grouped by debut sales numbers:

Recent #1 Country Albums that debuted with sales between 41,963 and 65,453 units
41,963 Pistol Annies (Miranda Lambert)
52,061 Brantley Gilbert (actually, he's going to have the #2 Country album this week)
55,000 Sara Evans
55,392 Jake Owen
65,453 Justin Moore

Recent #1 Country Albums that debuted with sales between 90,000 and 145,295
90,000 George Strait (this is a rounded number;his actual #s were slightly less than 90,000)
116,402 Blake Shelton
144,990 Eric Church
145,295 Luke Bryan

Recent #1 Country Albums that debuted with sales over 300,000
347,000 Lady Antebellum
[Last January, Taylor Swift debuted with sales close to 1 million (I think?)]

At this stage, only 17 with just a few months of actual industry experience, Scotty should NOT be expected to sell more than Miranda Lambert, Jake Owen and Justin Moore in his debut week. [Remember, always benchmark low -- it's MUCH better to be pleasantly surprised than bitterly disappointed.]

Yes, it would be PHENOMENAL for Scotty to debut higher than his idol George Strait and possibly even Blake Shelton. It would be UNTHINKABLE (again, at this stage of the game) for him to debut at the levels of Eric Church and Luke Bryan; and IMPOSSIBLE for him to debut at the level of Lady Antebellum.

So, let's start establishing REALITY BASED sales expectations; otherwise, we're going to enable pseudo-experts to call Scotty a failure even though he will probably exceed the sales of those who are considered new Country stars, but not match the sales of established super stars!!

Personally, I just want Scotty to garner the #1 spot on the Billboard Country chart -- whatever that takes. [I'm not concerned about any of the Country artists debuting on October 4 (although Hank Williams is looking good at Amazon); however, I am concerned about about Lady Antebellum holding on to the top spot for what would be the 3rd week in a row! . . . So, let's get busy and encourage every one we know to BUY, BUY, BUY!!!]


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This post has been edited by drdeb: Jun 20th 2012, 2:36 PM

[Arabella]

Country artists have certain sales patterns but so do people from Idol, especially popular winners whose coronation songs got serious airplay for months afterward, so you have to consider both. Kelly and Cook both sold over 200K in their first weeks, David closer to 300K and of course Idol's only other country winner did have a first week above 300K but that was 6 years ago and it's different with female country singers apparently. I do think Scotty can have an overall #1 opening week.

[drdeb]

Country artists have certain sales patterns but so do people from Idol, especially popular winners whose coronation songs got serious airplay for months afterward, so you have to consider both. Kelly and Cook both sold over 200K in their first weeks, David closer to 300K and of course Idol's only other country winner did have a first week above 300K but that was 6 years ago and it's different with female country singers apparently. I do think Scotty can have an overall #1 opening week.

As Carrie indicated recently, the music industry is MUCH different today that it was for her, Kelly and David . . . As my kids tell me all of the time, Mom, NOBODY buys music any more (they couldn't believe I was actually pre-ordering Scotty's CDs and repeatedly offered to download or 'burn' CDs for me from youtube and a bizillion other sites . . . Of course, they immediately regretted making such an offer because they were forced to listen to my extended rant about about personal integrity/honesty vis a vis intellectual property rights for us professors and 'creative' property rights (or whatever they call it in the music industry) for singers/songwriters.

FYI: David Cook's second album hasn't even sold 100,000 units yet and it's been out for months.

[ctryfan1980]

As Carrie indicated recently, the music industry is MUCH different today that it was for her, Kelly and David . . . As my kids tell me all of the time, Mom, NOBODY buys music any more (they couldn't believe I was actually pre-ordering Scotty's CDs and repeatedly offered to download or 'burn' CDs for me from youtube and a bizillion other sites . . . Of course, they immediately regretted making such an offer because they were forced to listen to my extended rant about about personal integrity/honesty vis a vis intellectual property rights for us professors and 'creative' property rights (or whatever they call it in the music industry) for singers/songwriters.

FYI: David Cook's second album hasn't even sold 100,000 units yet and it's been out for months.

The thing that sucks about the genre David sings is their fans aren't loyal. Country really is the only genre who stick by their favorites from one CD to the next as long as the artist stays true to their own music. I'm so glad Scotty was born to sing Country music cause its the only genre where its like family between artists and fans.

In your first post you mentioned you thought Taylor's sold 1,000,000 in January. It was actually last October. Its hard to believe the album has already been out a year. I was in Oregon then too and found it in a local record shop a week before its release day, I was shocked! Maybe if Scotty's CD has leaked it was from little shops like that. I asked them how they got the CD early and all they would say is "connections."

I really feel its gonna be at least 200k, and if not it will fall between 150k and 200k. I would be floored for 200k+ but the industry is too unpredictable to say that anymore. I honestly couldn't believe even Taylor did 1 Million! Gaga did it this year too with 1 Million during her first week, but that feat is so rare to happen today. I don't see any other artist doing that again.

[drdeb]

The thing that sucks about the genre David sings is their fans aren't loyal. Country really is the only genre who stick by their favorites from one CD to the next as long as the artist stays true to their own music. I'm so glad Scotty was born to sing Country music cause its the only genre where its like family between artists and fans.

In your first post you mentioned you thought Taylor's sold 1,000,000 in January. It was actually last October. Its hard to believe the album has already been out a year. I was in Oregon then too and found it in a local record shop a week before its release day, I was shocked! Maybe if Scotty's CD has leaked it was from little shops like that. I asked them how they got the CD early and all they would say is "connections."

I really feel its gonna be at least 200k, and if not it will fall between 150k and 200k. I would be floored for 200k+ but the industry is too unpredictable to say that anymore. I honestly couldn't believe even Taylor did 1 Million! Gaga did it this year too with 1 Million during her first week, but that feat is so rare to happen today. I don't see any other artist doing that again.

Once again, (and how many times have I said this to you over the last several weeks), from your keyboard to God's ear!!! [Same with you Arabella!]