Unemployment Rate Drops a Full Percentage Point Within the Past Four Months Options

[Famousgrl]

....the last time that happened was during the recovery in 1984....when Reagan won re-election.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Improvements in the job market may finally be taking hold, as strong business hiring last month brought the unemployment rate down to its lowest level in two years.

The economy gained 216,000 jobs in the month. That's better than the gain of 180,000 predicted by economists surveyed by CNNMoney, and also a significant improvement over the 194,000 jobs added in February.

The unemployment rate continued to edge down, dropping to 8.8%, the lowest level since March 2009. The unemployment rate has shed a full percentage point in the last four months, the largest four-month drop since 1984.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/01/news/econo...march/index.htm

Spin away, CK.

Private sector growth is up, by the way. It's the public sector that's down.

Republicans don't have much to complain about, but they'll have to come up with something, since they'd rather root against the US if that means Obama loses.

[ColonelKlink]

Spin away, CK.

Those 216,000 jobs created are a statistical concoction. They are derived from the BLS methodology which adjusts according to season. Without the seasonal adjustment the numbers are only 25,000.

Keep in mind that we need to add 125,000 new jobs per month, every month, without exception, just to keep even with population growth. Obama has put us so deep in the hole on the jobs front that it would take 10 years of more of real monthly job growth of 216,000 just for us to get to Bush-era workforce participation rates and we'd be moving backwards if every month had the seasonly unadjusted rate of 25,000.

I suspect that we're going to get a lot of media reports pushing these numbers and a myth will form, just like the myth that formed about the "Clinton Surpluses" when every year of his administration was characterized by deficits which increased the national debt ever upward without even one year's exception. Even today plenty of people believe that there were "Clinton Surpluses."

Look at this graph of workforce participation rates put out by the BLS.



The report you cited calculates (never mind for the moment the issue of seasonally adjusting the data to arrive at a contrived figure) the unemployment rate by looking only at those people who are in the job market or actively looking for work, that is, the workforce participation rate. Those who are no longer participating in the realm of work are not included in the workforce participation rate and they are not included in the unemployment rate. Where Bush had a 67.2% workforce participation rate and an unemployment rate of 5%, Obama has delivered us a 64.2% workforce participation rate and an official unemployment rate of 8.8%.

It would probably be more effective to dispense with the unemployment rate and simply state both the employment rate and the number of people who have jobs versus those who are out of the workforce. It's a simple exercise. For instance, we take the 64.2% workforce participation rate and we deduct the 8.8% who are unemployed and we find that of all the people who are of age to work that only 56.5% are employed in some fashion. The remaining 43.5% of the working age population in this country is out of work.

[CarrieFan702]

....the last time that happened was during the recovery in 1984....when Reagan won re-election.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/04/01/news/econo...march/index.htm

Yes, this is definetely some great improvement. The economy is starting to improve!

[ColonelKlink]

Yes, this is definetely some great improvement. The economy is starting to improve!

As I noted above, the claim that unemployment is dropping is a statistical concoction. Here is the latest report on actual jobless claims, as reported by the Wall Street Journal:

New claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. shot up last week, reaching their highest in two months as the economy fights to recover.

Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices continued to pick up last month amid rising energy costs, while underlying pressures also rose slightly more than expected.

Initial jobless claims increased by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 412,000 in the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said Thursday in its weekly report. The prior week's figures were revised up to 385,000 from an originally reported 382,000.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast claims would rise by 3,000 in the latest week.

The four-week moving average of new claims, considered a more reliable indicator because it smooths out volatile weekly data, rose by 5,500 to 395,750 in the week ending April 9.

The claims data gave another sign of the economy's struggle to pick up the pace as it tries to recover from the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009. This week, a poor showing on U.S. trade and weaker-than-expected retail sales during March signaled economic growth faltered in the early months of 2011.

Steady improvement in the jobs market is critical to spur consumer spending, which is the big growth engine of the economy.

At 412,000, the level of new claims was at the highest since the week ending Feb. 12. The big increase last week carried new filings for jobless benefits above the 400,000 mark, signaling labor market weakness. Economists consider claims below that level as a strong sign the economy is gaining more jobs than it's shedding.

[ColonelKlink]

Yes, this is definetely some great improvement. The economy is starting to improve!

Here's a hint for everyone - when a liberal says something then decipher it to mean the exact opposite, that is for those of us who don't live in a bubble:

The share of the population that is working fell to its lowest level last year since women started entering the workforce in large numbers three decades ago, a USA TODAY analysis finds.

Only 45.4% of Americans had jobs in 2010, the lowest rate since 1983 and down from a peak of 49.3% in 2000. Last year, just 66.8% of men had jobs, the lowest on record.