How Would Siobhan Fared with Jennifer Lopez & Steven Tyler? Options

[A Song To Sing]

As BLP pointed out, the voting results are monitored by the FCC. One of Siobhan's fans contacted an AI producer after Sio was voted off the show, and she confirmed that the FCC validates the results. There is no way that they could get away with rigging a show like AI. I do think AI should release the voting numbers for the sake of transparency, but I've never given serious consideration to the notion that the voting is "rigged". That's pure fantasy.

This post has been edited by A Song To Sing: Oct 3rd 2010, 11:35 PM

[Telement]

As BLP pointed out, the voting results are monitored by the FCC. One of Siobhan's fans contacted an AI producer after Sio was voted off the show, and she confirmed that the FCC validates the results. There is no way that they could get away with rigging a show like AI.

So what you're saying is a public listed company can never post false accounting because there are organizations monitoring them?

Yo....welcome to the real world. "Creative accounting" is done everyday all around the world. Money makes the world go round and money can buy alot of things, you know....including people. And for a family show like AI, its not the end of the world if they tweaked the votes a bit. Plus, there are bunch of disclaimers from AI which we do not know.

End of the day, AI is not going to let the those who vote choose their winner. Because those who vote could only be 300,000 to 500,000. That's like only 2% - 4% of the viewers. You gonna let 2% - 4% of the viewers choose your winner?

If you think there are actually MORE voters out there...then why the all youtube vids register such low views. None of the vids of any S9 contestants got more than 1 million views. And we are talking youtube viewers from all around the world. Why there's less than 1000 people who got a BonBon number? Why Talyor Hicks at the peak of AI (with most viewers) sold less than 1million albums?

The reality - the percentage of those who actually get involved is really low.

Another thing we never discussed is the record label. I bet AI always ask Sony Music who they want or prefer. Its a partnership after all and its business. Its all about $$$ and no way AI will let less than 10% of AI viewers decide their winner. Now, that is pure fantasy!

ps: btw, there was 1 man who refused all the money and decided to stop US involvement in the Vietnam War. They killed him.

[A Song To Sing]

End of the day, AI is not going to let the those who vote choose their winner. Because those who vote could only be 300,000 to 500,000. That's like only 2% - 4% of the viewers. You gonna let 2% - 4% of the viewers choose your winner?

You don't have any evidence to back up these numbers. I found a survey from 2006 where 10% of American adults admitted to having cast a vote during Season 5. That's for all adults surveyed, not just American Idol viewers. When you factor in how many are actually viewers of the show, I would be surprised if less than 30% of viewers cast a vote during the season.

Here's the link:
http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/12615263

If you think there are actually MORE voters out there...then why the all youtube vids register such low views. None of the vids of any S9 contestants got more than 1 million views. And we are talking youtube viewers from all around the world. Why there's less than 1000 people who got a BonBon number? Why Talyor Hicks at the peak of AI (with most viewers) sold less than 1million albums?

The reality - the percentage of those who actually get involved is really low.

I know lots of people who vote for American Idol, and I doubt that any of them post on message boards or look up videos on Youtube. Fact is, the vast majority of voters never get invested in their favorites like we do. The vast majority don't power vote, either. Many Idol voters don't even know that they can vote hundreds of times in one night. My parents have been watching this show since 2002, and they were surprised when I recently told them about the power voting phenomenon. They thought you could only vote one time. There simply aren't that many people with the time, motivation, and technological know-how to vote hundreds of times every week.

Taylor Hicks only proves that vote numbers don't translate into album sales. He was enormously popular on the show because he sang a bunch of old-fashioned songs that people loved. Very few of his voters (The Soul Patrol) were ever interested in buying his album. Kris Allen is another example of this phenomenon.

Another thing we never discussed is the record label. I bet AI always ask Sony Music who they want or prefer. Its a partnership after all and its business. Its all about $$$ and no way AI will let less than 10% of AI viewers decide their winner. Now, that is pure fantasy!

Again, something like that could never be kept secret. Look at how much information gets leaked to the press about American Idol. Jennifer Lopez can hardly take a dump without it getting plastered all over TMZ. Nothing is secret anymore.

ps: btw, there was 1 man who refused all the money and decided to stop US involvement in the Vietnam War. They killed him.

Are "they" the same people who have alien spacecraft stashed away in Area 51?

This post has been edited by A Song To Sing: Oct 8th 2010, 7:31 PM

[jackxyz]

Thank you all for the intelligent discussion!
++++++

Just want to add...

"As you correctly assume, I cannot provide you with the limit of votes before we reserve the right to remove votes. All I am able to state is that if you are using standard means to vote then you should have no issues and all votes will be cast and counted. Should you be using an automated system, you increase your chances of having votes removed. One thing you should also be wary of is sending multiple texts in a single go. Some handsets allow you to put many recipients (in this case it would be the same 4 digit shortcode) in the ‘to’ field and just send one text. While some handsets only allow you to send up to 10 at once, others allow far greater than that. In those instances there may be a chance that they would be considered to be blocks of votes and they may be miscounted. We encourage people to vote as often as they like using standard means to vote. Anything that abuses or takes advantage of technology to cast large blocks of votes, runs the risk of being disallowed. --------- Hi again I’m afraid I cannot give out specifics. Ultimately it comes down to the overall number of votes cast in the 2 hour window. Once someone reaches a certain threshold we then look at the patterns of voting to determine what methods are being used to cast the votes (ie, what blocks). Someone simply sending one message at a time for the whole 2 hours would never get to the threshold, while someone sending multiples (such as 5 at a time) could get to that threshold if they voting constantly for the 2 hours. Sending multiples is taking advantage of the technology and so, while you may never get to the threshold and have any votes discounted, you increase your chances of us removing those votes which exceed the threshold. I’m sorry I cannot be more specific. Thanks Sandy" "As you correctly assume, I cannot provide you with the limit of votes before we reserve the right to remove votes. All I am able to state is that if you are using standard means to vote then you should have no issues and all votes will be cast and counted. Should you be using an automated system, you increase your chances of having votes removed. One thing you should also be wary of is sending multiple texts in a single go. Some handsets allow you to put many recipients (in this case it would be the same 4 digit shortcode) in the ‘to’ field and just send one text. While some handsets only allow you to send up to 10 at once, others allow far greater than that. In those instances there may be a chance that they would be considered to be blocks of votes and they may be miscounted.

We encourage people to vote as often as they like using standard means to vote. Anything that abuses or takes advantage of technology to cast large blocks of votes, runs the risk of being disallowed.
---------

Hi again

I’m afraid I cannot give out specifics. Ultimately it comes down to the overall number of votes cast in the 2 hour window. Once someone reaches a certain threshold we then look at the patterns of voting to determine what methods are being used to cast the votes (ie, what blocks). Someone simply sending one message at a time for the whole 2 hours would never get to the threshold, while someone sending multiples (such as 5 at a time) could get to that threshold if they voting constantly for the 2 hours. Sending multiples is taking advantage of the technology and so, while you may never get to the threshold and have any votes discounted, you increase your chances of us removing those votes which exceed the threshold.

I’m sorry I cannot be more specific.

Thanks

Sandy"

______

The thing about the above quote... Sandy is being extremely careful with what she says and how she says it. Crafting her reply, she "hints" at a number but never states that there is an absolute.

Most people familiar with computers and computer programs know the possibility of creating a software program that looks at many variables and adjusts its "report" based on those variables.

For example: the possibility that the actual number that qualifies as "Power Voting" changes based on the percentage of votes that come in above 100/200/300/400/500 all the way up to the maximum number of votes cast by anyone that week.

Grading on a scale...

The Power Vote Number may move around based on all the votes received by all the contestants.

Then, if a contestant receives a higher percentage of Power Votes in comparison to other contestants it would affect that contestant the most (in a negative way).

Could this explain why Adam finished second, why Siobhan with the help of vote4thewrst left as #6?

_______

Note the above does not address Telement's theory that voting has nothing to do with the "winner" which is also a viable argument.

[Telement]

You don't have any evidence to back up these numbers.

Since we both dont have evidence....we can go on debating forever

But...........you can look at trends! If something is hot, it will receive more news coverage, become a trending topic on twitter, your friends will start talking about it...etc etc, right? We can compare it to a similar (thing or person) and find the trend. Aha!

Ok, lets see what we find on Google trends:

As you can see there's alot more search for Siobhan. Michael's so low!!!

The 2nd one shows news reference volume: Notice Sio peaked after she performed PIB and when she got eliminated. Michael's only peak was when he got eliminated. Same goes for Aaron Note: Big Mike didnt get more news than Sio during the week he was saved by judges


Im not sure how many tweets it takes to become a Trending Topic on twitter but im sure it takes more than all Bon Bons on the 3 forums to make it happen. Siobhan Magnus was a Trending Topic during the finale, remember? I dont recall seeing Michael or Aaron being a TT.


Sio highest YT view is PIB with 478,583 views.
2nd is LFTC with 430,535 views

Michael's highest is This Woman Works with 378,026 views
His second In the Ghetto with 123,667 views

Aaron Kelly Arms of an angel with 147,011 views
Second is The Climb (audition) with 128,463 views


And of coz, we can see the forum as well....
I think there were as high as 90 users on Sio forum here during the show. Tbh, i dont know cos i only joined idf after Sio got eliminated. But i remember i saw an old post in dunno-which-thread here and the poster said something like "wow, we have 90 users on Sio board now". Anywho, there are over 70,000 replies for Sio forum. Ok ok ok.....i know...alot are spams....lets take out 50%...so we take 35,000. That's still higher than Mike & Aaron's combined!

FYI, Aaron's has about 11,000 replies. Big Mike = 350
You can check the AI official board. Its the same.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I hope you can see the trends. I believe Sio received more votes than Mike or Aaron. Just look at the trends, its common sense! So, if this cannot make you believe AI is rigged! I really dunno what can...

Are "they" the same people who have alien spacecraft stashed away in Area 51?

I dont know about Area 51. But "they" are responsible for the Moon landing too. Biggest hoax of the 20th century.

This post has been edited by Telement: Oct 4th 2010, 12:15 PM

[A Song To Sing]

The internet is not the real world, Telement. There are a hundred reasons why someone might appear popular online, but not be popular in the real world. The reverse is also true.

I'm going to ignore your comment about the moon landings.

[jackxyz]

And of coz, we can see the forum as well....
I think there were as high as 90 users on Sio forum here during the show. Tbh, i dont know cos i only joined idf after Sio got eliminated. But i remember i saw an old post in dunno-which-thread here and the poster said something like "wow, we have 90 users on Sio board now". Anywho, there are over 70,000 replies for Sio forum. Ok ok ok.....i know...alot are spams....lets take out 50%...so we take 35,000. That's still higher than Mike & Aaron's combined!

As an aside since you made the statement...

I challenge your assertion that 50% of the posts there are spam. A smiley face reply and or a few words as a reply in sync with the tread or conversation is not spam.

If it makes you feel better to slam that forum then I hope you feel great since you make no effort to support Siobhan at AI.

By the way, supporting Siobhan on every level is why some fans choose to support her folder at AI, try to show support here and at her fan site.

[Telement]

As an aside since you made the statement...

I challenge your assertion that 50% of the posts there are spam. A smiley face reply and or a few words as a reply in sync with the tread or conversation is not spam.

If it makes you feel better to slam that forum then I hope you feel great since you make no effort to support Siobhan at AI.

By the way, supporting Siobhan on every level is why some fans choose to support her folder at AI, try to show support here and at her fan site.

I think you misunderstood me. I didnt slam AI forum. I was talking about this forum = idf forum. There's alot of spam here. I know because i participated big time.

Anyway, 50% is probably too high of a percentage. Its less. I just wanted to show Big Mike & Aaron's forum is so so low....that if we just take 50% of the replies here, we still beat them combined.

[blacklightposter]

I can barely keep track anymore of who is arguing specifically which points because they think they're central to which position.

Anyway...

Small point: I don't believe the FCC monitors AI voting results. But I am certain that if AI were in fact committing de facto fraud against the American tv-viewing public, despite any provisos they might have mouthed or jotted down to try to justify it, (1) it would leak out in fairly short order, and (2) the FCC would jump on them with both feet and very visibly investigate. Bureaucrats like a little positive press, too. (Lots of 'em prolly watch AI themselves!) If AI were manipulating the outcome of the contest from behind the scenes, they'd get caught, it would be a quite big stink, and it would be the end of the show. Ergo, they're careful to not try to manipulate the outcome, other than through the judges' cheerleading (or bashing) efforts, and showing a little favoritism here and there with editing and who they give the pimp spot each week to.

The $64,000 Question was a hugely popular show in the 1950s. Producers slipped some answers to some favorites. It got out, and I think even the U.S. Congress got involved, dragging the producers and contestants in front of Congressional hearings, and, of course, the press. Something only marginally less dramatic would happen here. Many a prosecutor or politician would leap into the fray, to protect the poor trusting American tv viewer from trickery so underhanded and nefarious!

AI would have to be really stupid to invite all that. They ain't. Any benefit from manipulating the outcome would not be worth it, not by a long shot.

-------------

Brian's point, that the internet is not the real world, is very apt and relevant in trying to figure out this voting puzzle (while lacking hard information like we do).

At work a lot of my peers watch AI. Fewer now than 2 or 3 years ago, but still many. I think essentially none of them actually votes. Ever. Yes, we know the proportion among teens is alot higher, and among tweens higher still. But out 20 million watching Sio sing AMOM, I stick with my estimate that a million or fewer voted. And I agree that most who do vote are pretty casual about it. They'll vote 1x, not even thinking to vote more than that. Or, if they're aware of voting multiple times, they might vote 3 or 5x. But it's just a very small proportion of all voters who take it seriously enough to vote a lot.

Twitterworld is not anything even remotely close to representative of the populace at large. Ditto internet messageboards, fan sites, or the AI site. Any resemblance to real-world numbers would be both freakishy rare and completely coincidental.

-------------

Speaking of AI's site, I cannot overlook how that institution totally reamed our girl. I therefore regard it as absolutely the wrong venue to try to support her, for that reason alone. To try to support Siobhan there requires me to patronize, and by extension support, the site itself, and I refuse to do that.

Plus I don't care for sites that heavily police my opinions to make sure they're not offensive to whatever Big Brother is in charge and bent on protecting their own image.

Siobhan's sister Emily swore off the AI site forever for the same reasons. I agree with Emily.

-------------

Btw, remember the original thread theme? The judging panel change!

Another way it occurs to me that JLo as a judge would've helped Siobhan: By attracting more adult male viewers. Most of us love, at a minimum, looking at JLo's butt. Not everybody, granted, but most.

More male viewers would have meant more support for Siobhan. (I don't know if that one's been mentioned before or not.)

This post has been edited by blacklightposter: Oct 4th 2010, 3:41 PM

[seaerin]

I dont know about Area 51. But "they" are responsible for the Moon landing too. Biggest hoax of the 20th century.

Be careful where you share this information. "They" are watching, ya know.

[lightsurplus]

J-Lo will be sitting down when she is judging, thus ruining any chance of seeing her butt on TV, but the audience might get a decent shot or two when she gets up to stretch during the commercials.
Damn, the things we talk about while waiting for news about Sio's future.........

[Telement]

Small point: I don't believe the FCC monitors AI voting results. But I am certain that if AI were in fact committing de facto fraud against the American tv-viewing public, despite any provisos they might have mouthed or jotted down to try to justify it, (1) it would leak out in fairly short order,

Y'all keep saying its impossible to keep secret in AI. But after 9 years, is there any leaks about the votes? Do we know how many votes Kris and Adam received? What about Archie and Cook? Or Fantasia? If it is so easy to leak....why there's no leak on the actual votes?

The thing is all previous leaks have to do with a non-19 employee. Either that or it was a deliberate leak by 19 themselves. We heard about S.Tyler and J.Lo because they were not 19 employees (yet) when they or their agent leaked the news. The infamous Paula scandal with a contestant was leak by the contestant.

Brian's point, that the internet is not the real world, is very apt and relevant in trying to figure out this voting puzzle (while lacking hard information like we do).

The internet may not be the real world but its an extension of the real world. Its part of the real world now and it must not be ignored.

The trends i showed above simply indicate people with internet access and watch AI prefer/like Siobhan Magnus more than Mike or Aaron. We have no idea about those who watch AI but have no internet access. Who are these people? Are they very different from those with internet access?

Twitterworld is not anything even remotely close to representative of the populace at large. Ditto internet messageboards, fan sites, or the AI site. Any resemblance to real-world numbers would be both freakishy rare and completely coincidental.

Twitter is very popular among the teens and those in their 20s. Its a very good place to get some insights of what they like or hate. Twitter represents their world. Not those in their 40s, 50s or 60s. Only 3 contestants trended during the finale: Sio, Sox and ***.

Hayley from Paramore tweeted:
Seriously on cloud 9 after hearing our song on Glee. Pick up their version of "The Only Exception" on iTunes! So humbled by all of this.

2 and a half hours later...

Glee's version of "The Only Exception" is #4 on iTunes!! Dayuuuum! Thank you guys for being just as stoked as we are night!!

Another coincidence?

Btw, remember the original thread theme? The judging panel change!

Ok ok...lets get back to topic. Urm...for me, i think it all depends who they are looking for. S9 clearly showed they wanted a singer/songwriter. We dunno what they want for S10. But i think S.Tyler and J.Lo would be nicer to Sio. Karmon was a torture for Sio

Be careful where you share this information. "They" are watching, ya know.

[Bonbonconvert]

SI dont know about Area 51. But "they" are responsible for the Moon landing too. Biggest hoax of the 20th century.

Not the greatest idea to bring this up on a regular message board, but I'll let you know that I'm undecided about the moon landings, plenty of good arguments on both sides.

[blacklightposter]

Not the greatest idea to bring this up on a regular message board, but I'll let you know that I'm undecided about the moon landings, plenty of good arguments on both sides.

our judges panel says you're "a little pitchy" on that one

but I'll let NASA fight their own battles.

moving on....

[jackxyz]

I think you misunderstood me. I didnt slam AI forum. I was talking about this forum = idf forum. There's alot of spam here. I know because i participated big time.

Anyway, 50% is probably too high of a percentage. Its less. I just wanted to show Big Mike & Aaron's forum is so so low....that if we just take 50% of the replies here, we still beat them combined.

Sorry Telement! Misunderstood the comment...

_________

BTW: the people trying to show support and activity over at AI are doing so in-spite of the way they treat the participants over there.

And why? Because we don't want the buzzards and jackals to swoop in and leave their mark on "our girl's folder". At the same time, her folder is sometimes/often the first place someone looks when they want to find out more about Siobhan Magnus.

_________

Upon reflection, the new judges (especially their first year) would likely be more supportive of Siobhan's talent and creativity.

[Telement]

Sorry Telement! Misunderstood the comment...

.............................. ............................................

At the same time, her folder is sometimes/often the first place someone looks when they want to find out more about Siobhan Magnus.

I searched google trend for Sio for the last 30 days....and....

Do not have enough search volume to show graphs!!
So, dont worry so much...

Anyway, alot of us dont post there because of what happened previously. The mods were like a bunch of Nazis banning users left right center. And when they deleted Emily's letter to us.....i was like super

I dont blame the mods. They are just working. I blame their boss! All the big bosses of AI. They are so freakin strict and want control on everything. This is another reason why i do not believe these evil big bosses will let you call in to vote and decide their winner. Just no way!

Dont ignore your first instinct. Siobhan was robbed!

This post has been edited by Telement: Oct 6th 2010, 9:33 AM

[sio-zombie]

What a trainwreck thread. No wonder this forum is dying. Now people are openly questioning the lunar landing? LOL!!!!!

Some of you guys on here sound like you are on the moon. Hellooooo, the internet is NOT representative of the real world. It is just a part of the world. I can't believe I actually had to write that.

As far as "supporting" Siobhan by going onto the AI website-- please tell me you are kidding!!!! Feel free to waste your own time over there, but do not be judgmental if others choose not to. Earth to moonbeam: Siobhan's success or failure will not depend AT ALL on whether you frequent the AI board or tweet, or whatever. Geez.

[A Song To Sing]

What a trainwreck thread. No wonder this forum is dying. Now people are openly questioning the lunar landing? LOL!!!!!

Some of you guys on here sound like you are on the moon. Hellooooo, the internet is NOT representative of the real world. It is just a part of the world. I can't believe I actually had to write that.

As far as "supporting" Siobhan by going onto the AI website-- please tell me you are kidding!!!! Feel free to waste your own time over there, but do not be judgmental if others choose not to. Earth to moonbeam: Siobhan's success or failure will not depend AT ALL on whether you frequent the AI board or tweet, or whatever. Geez.

You can say that again. After seeing Siobhan and the other Idols in concert, it's pretty obvious to me that her internet popularity didn't translate into the real world. Mike and Aaron actually got a better reaction from the crowd. Barely anyone cheered when Siobhan came out to sign autographs, and I overheard some people calling her a "weirdo," etc.

I think Siobhan could easily become the most successful Season 9 contestant, but I'm not going to pretend that she had a huge number of people voting for her. It's simply not true.

[jackxyz]

What a trainwreck thread. No wonder this forum is dying. Now people are openly questioning the lunar landing? LOL!!!!!

Some of you guys on here sound like you are on the moon. Hellooooo, the internet is NOT representative of the real world. It is just a part of the world. I can't believe I actually had to write that.

As far as "supporting" Siobhan by going onto the AI website-- please tell me you are kidding!!!! Feel free to waste your own time over there, but do not be judgmental if others choose not to. Earth to moonbeam: Siobhan's success or failure will not depend AT ALL on whether you frequent the AI board or tweet, or whatever. Geez.

RE: bolded text ...pretty judgmental on all levels... great seer of knowledge.

You can say that again. After seeing Siobhan and the other Idols in concert, it's pretty obvious to me that her internet popularity didn't translate into the real world. Mike and Aaron actually got a better reaction from the crowd. Barely anyone cheered when Siobhan came out to sign autographs, and I overheard some people calling her a "weirdo," etc.

I think Siobhan could easily become the most successful Season 9 contestant, but I'm not going to pretend that she had a huge number of people voting for her. It's simply not true.

Sorry but your myopic experience is not representative of Siobhan's fan base in any way with the exception of the statistical fact that at the concerts approximately 10% of the fans would have been there for her. What I noticed at the concert I was at is that she had well over 60/70/80% positive participation based on where I was sitting. The fact that some 11 year old girls called her weird only proves how a couple of jaded judges can poison the well with timely well planned attacks. They attacked her personality, her character, her presentation, her dress, her voice, her performances, her choices...

______

Back to the voting SCANDAL

The basis behind my theory is in the fact that so few people vote, or so many people power vote and get their votes disqualified.

It has to be one or the other or a combination of the two...

36M vote and 20M watch the show. Right there it says 1.8 votes per viewer. So everyone wants to say most people don't vote. Fine we still have those two numbers to look at 36M & 20M.

if 95 people out of 100 don't vote, then the 5% that do vote represent 1,000,000 voters. Those million averaged 36 votes over two hours (and 4 time zones that stagger the voting).

Why would there ever be a busy signal anywhere?

OK if only 2 people out of 100 vote. 2% out of 20M is 400,000 voters. 400K x 90 votes = 36M votes.

400,000 voters = out of the entire United States is like the City of Cincinnati voting and they each vote 90 times over 2 hours.

Why would there ever be a busy signal anywhere (except Cincinnati).

So in closing

98 % of the viewers never cast a vote and 2% vote 90 times... are you feeling good about those numbers? Are they believable?

Well if the average voter votes 90 times, why would someone that votes 1000 times be considered anything but a power voter?

Just asking...

Why would a 500 vote voter not be viewed as a power voter.

[seaerin]

What a trainwreck thread. No wonder this forum is dying. Now people are openly questioning the lunar landing? LOL!!!!!

LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

You can say that again. After seeing Siobhan and the other Idols in concert, it's pretty obvious to me that her internet popularity didn't translate into the real world. Mike and Aaron actually got a better reaction from the crowd. Barely anyone cheered when Siobhan came out to sign autographs, and I overheard some people calling her a "weirdo," etc.

I think Siobhan could easily become the most successful Season 9 contestant, but I'm not going to pretend that she had a huge number of people voting for her. It's simply not true.

I agree with you here.